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NextGen and Its Impact on Performance Worldwide Symposium on Performance of the Air Navigation System ICAO Montreal, Quebec, Canada March 26-30, 2007 Victoria.

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Presentation on theme: "NextGen and Its Impact on Performance Worldwide Symposium on Performance of the Air Navigation System ICAO Montreal, Quebec, Canada March 26-30, 2007 Victoria."— Presentation transcript:

1 NextGen and Its Impact on Performance Worldwide Symposium on Performance of the Air Navigation System ICAO Montreal, Quebec, Canada March 26-30, 2007 Victoria Cox US Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Operations, Vice President of Operations Planning

2 Its More Than Just the Movement of People and Goods Aviation and Aerospace represent 5.5% of U.S. GDPAviation and Aerospace represent 5.5% of U.S. GDP If expanded to include related industries,If expanded to include related industries, its 9% of U.S. GDP Contributes 10 million jobs to our economyContributes 10 million jobs to our economy

3 2025 NextGen Concept Net-Enabled Information Access Performance-Based Services Weather-Assimilated Decision Making Layered, Adaptive Security Broad-Area Precision Navigation Trajectory-Based Aircraft Operations Equivalent Visual Operations Super Density Operations Key Capabilities For full version, see:

4 Cost of Not Moving to NextGen Demand by Year ,000 75,000 95, , , , ,000 Flights Per Day $ 40 Billion Annual Economic Loss $ 100 Billion Annual Economic Loss Uncons Comm OEP H&S No Change Unconstrained Commercial Demand (TAF Growth) OEP H&S Capacity Estimate No Change Capacity Demand

5 Future Demand on the NAS X ~3X Significant Alternate Shift Increase passengers per flight A380, reverse RJ trend 20?? ~2X Not to scale Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) Growth Projection TAF Growth Ratios, Higher Rate TAF Growth Ratios, Lower Rate 2014 Biz shift 2% shift to micro jets Flights 1.4-3X Boeing Forecast 3X 2.4X Continue existing Biz shift Smaller aircraft, more airports Enplanement Demand TAF yields passenger growth of X in 2025

6 2025 NextGen Capabilities: Capacity Impacts NextGen Capabilities Current Airspace Capacity Bad Wx Good Wx Current Airport Capacity Good Wx Bad Wx Super Density Airport Operations 1.2X – 1.4X Capacity Increase Weather Information in Decision Loops Equivalent Visual Operations Maximize use of Available Airspace Nearly match Good Wx Capacity Aircraft Trajectory- Based Ops Performance- Based Services 2X – 4X Capacity Increase Distributed Airport Operations * And more… Net-Enabled Information Access Broad Area Precision Navigation *For Distributed Airport Operations, benefits are modeled by shifting traffic (Bizshift) to selected regional airports surrounding the 35 OEP airports

7 NextGen Performance: Dual Focus Air Traffic Management –Improved Performance-based services Area Navigation (RNAV) Required Navigation Performance (RNP) Continuous Descent Approach (CDA) Improved Information Availability (SWIM) Improved weather prediction availability and coordinated weather picture

8 Aircraft and Operator Performance –Improved aircraft performance Navigation and aircraft flight performance Improved noise and emissions performance –Provide better decision quality data to pilots and air traffic controllers to enable higher-density operations with high level of safety NextGen Performance: Dual Focus

9 Monitoring Performance against NextGen Targets JPDO Develops NextGen Performance Assessment of Concepts – Sets Targets Agency Develops Near-Term Performance Goals Enterprise Architecture: Performance Reference Model Agency Executes Investments Monitors Performance Flight Plan OEP Enterprise Architecture JPDO Manages Outcomes against Plan Portfolio Management Adjust Plan National Plan Sets NextGen Objectives

10 Demonstrated Metrics Experience ATO Dashboard

11 Operational Evolution Partnership Metrics NAS Today Measuring today ensures a successful tomorrow

12 Enabling Infrastructure to Support NextGen Capabilities OEP Solution Sets Initiate Trajectory Based Operations Increase Arrivals/Departures at High Density Airports Increase Flexibility in the Terminal Environment Improve Collaborative ATM Reduce Weather Impact Increase Safety, Security, and Environmental Performance Transform Facilities ERAM STARS/CARTS ADS-B TMA TFM-M SWIM DATA Comm Precision Navigation Network Enabled Weather Current Programs Key Near-Term Investments ERAM Enhancements Automated Problem Resolution Concept Demonstrations Trajectory Based Ops/High Density Infrastructure – Trajectory Based Ops Time Based Metering TFM-M Enhancements Time-Based Metering RNP/RNAV Expansion Precise Navigation Data Communications Flight Intent Downlink ADS-B Aircraft Separation SWIM/Net-Enabled Weather Net-Centric Information Sharing


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