2. 1 valerio.tramutoli@unibas.it Valerio Tramutoli 1,2 1 University of Basilicata, Potenza – Italy (valerio.tramutoli@unibas.it) 2 Institute of Methodologies of Environmental Analysis, CNR, Tito Scalo – Potenza – Italy On the possible origins of Pre-seismic TIR anomalies Valerio Tramutoli 1,2 1 University of Basilicata, Potenza – Italy (valerio.tramutoli@unibas.it) 2 Institute of Methodologies of Environmental Analysis, CNR, Tito Scalo – Potenza – Italy SCEC CSEP Workshop on Testing External Forecasts and Predictions Los Angeles 7-8 May 2013

3. valerio.tramutoli@unibas.it 2 Physical Models Anomalous TIR emissions are foreseen by most of the models describing earthquakes preparation phases e.g. Freund ( J. Geodyn. 2002 ) positive hole-type charge carriers in rocks, activated when rocks are subjected to high levels of stress

4. valerio.tramutoli@unibas.it 3 Physical Models Anomalous TIR emissions are foreseen by most of the models describing earthquakes preparation phases e.g. LAIC ( Lithosphere Atmosphere Ionosphere Coupling, Pulinets, 2009 )

5. valerio.tramutoli@unibas.it 4 SOURCE of CO2 and/or CH4 Increasing Surface Temperature Increasing R TIR SIGNAL VIS wind TIR Physical Models Local greenhouse effect ( Quiang, 1991, Tramutoli et al., 2001, 2005, 2013 )

6. valerio.tramutoli@unibas.it Physical Models (before) day week month A year decade day week month year decade 0 under stress microcracks formation can increases degassing rate (TIR anomalies)

7. valerio.tramutoli@unibas.it day week month A year decade day week month year decade 0 further stress increasing determines microcracks closure interrupting previous degassing increase (TIR anomalies disappearance) Physical Models (just before)

8. valerio.tramutoli@unibas.it day week month A year decade day week month year decade 0 major rupture can determine new escaping ways and a new increase of degassing rate (TIR anomalies) Physical Models (immediately after) California 2000-2006 MODIS 7 YEARS

9. valerio.tramutoli@unibas.it 8 Expected atmospheric spectral radiance excesses (BT in K) at ground in presence of different CO2 concentrations MODTRAN simulation, (Tramutoli et al., 2009) 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 8910111213141516 wavelengths [µm] TIR radiance excesse in BT units [K] CO2x20CO2x10CO2x5CO2x3CO2x2 Physical Models Local greenhouse effect ( Quiang, 1991, Tramutoli, 2005, Tramutoli, et al., 2012 )

10. valerio.tramutoli@unibas.it 9 valerio.tramutoli@uibas.it MFG/MVIRI TIR BAND Physical Models Local greenhouse effect not direct CO2 emission !

11. valerio.tramutoli@unibas.it 10 valerio.tramutoli@unibas.it Rapid (few hours) temperature increase! Adapted from Pfanz (2012)

12. valerio.tramutoli@unibas.it 11 Physical models: CO2 CO2 - lake CO2 - river

13. valerio.tramutoli@unibas.it 12 CO2 - lake CO2 - river Physical models: CO2 Bhuj-Gujarat (India), Ms= 7.9, 26 gennaio 2001 25 January2001 26 January 2001 27 h January2001 28 January 2001 25 June1996 (4 days before EQ)

14. valerio.tramutoli@unibas.it 13 more than 220 mud volcanoes, CH4 emission: 100-1000 ton/km2 per year (Etiope, 2003) Physical models: CH4 Mud Volcanoes in Azerbaijan as controled sources of methane STREGEOS Panhai, Aliev, Guliev, Martinelli at Mefite, August 2006 NATO PROGRAMME SECURITY THROUGH SCIENCE

15. valerio.tramutoli@unibas.it 14 No data (clouds) RETIRA ≥ 3 RETIRA ≥ 2 RETIRA ≥ 2.5 22/5/95 23/5/95 Bozdagh volcano eruption May 1995 Physical models: known sources of CH4 21st May, 2003 Boumerdes earthquake (M W = 6.9): 28-04-2003 26-04-2003

16. valerio.tramutoli@unibas.it 15 26 January 2001 22/5/95 Physical models CO2 CH4 H2Ovap CH4 Mudvolcano Earth quake Clouds

17. valerio.tramutoli@unibas.it 16 Seismological observation (Vp/Vs) (Lucente et al, Geology, 2010) 01 April 2009 00:57:47 GTM 31 March 2009 01:14:56 GTM 30 March 2009 01:10:00 GTM 31 March 2009 01:57:31 GMT 30 March 2009 00:22:57 GMT 01 April 2009 01:46:49 GMT 30 March 2009 00:00:00 GMT 31 March 2009 00:00:00 GMT 01 April 2009 00:00:00 GMT SEVIRI MODIS AVHRR TIR anomalies Independent observations at the time of Abruzzo April 6 th 2009 EQ 16 Vp/Vs observations have been justified by a progressive emptying of a huge gas reservoir triggered by the event of March 31 st. Such an hypothesis perfectly fits with models correlating TIR anomalies with abrupt increasing of green- houses gases emissions.

18. Università degli Studi della Basilicata valerio.tramutoli@unibas.it 17 Next Future Using of satellite instrumentations (like AIRS- EOS, SCIAMACHY-ENVISAT, IASI-MetOp) for directly retrieve greenhouse gases concentration over L ’ Aquila only months of April from 2003 to 2009

19. Università degli Studi della Basilicata valerio.tramutoli@unibas.it 18 Measuring greenhouse gases from Space (AIRS, IASI, Shamachy, etc) 50 km 2 daily, multi daily and monthly means. Accuracy over the grid: 1-2 ppmv http://airs.jpl.nasa.gov/AIRS_CO2_Data/ An example of an AIRS mid-tropospheric CO2 monthly mean map, July 2009.

20. Università degli Studi della Basilicata valerio.tramutoli@unibas.it

21. Università degli Studi della Basilicata valerio.tramutoli@unibas.it Thanks (in any case it is a long story...) Anaxagoras (appr. 500-428 BC.) Aristotle (384-322 BC)  “pneuma”, a warm, dry gas escapes Straton of Lampsakos (320-270 BC) Poseidonios (135-51 BC) Pliny the Elder( 24-79 AD) Seneca (55 BC-40 AD) Pausanias (115-180 AD) Ammianus Marcellinus (second half of 4 th century AD) Albertus Magnus (1193-1280 A.D.) Thomas Aquino (1225-1274 A.D.) Konrad von Megenberg (1309-1374) Leonardi da Vinci (1452-1516)  violently escaping air 2 millenia Aristotle The “pneuma” theory of escaping gas as “cause” of earthquakes (by courtesy of Helmut Tributsch)