1. North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007 Early Detection and Rapid Response: Pest/pathogen modeling and early warning through the IPM-PIPE Martin A. Draper, National Program Leader – Plant Pathology USDA-CSREES Martin A. Draper, National Program Leader – Plant Pathology USDA-CSREES

2. North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007 National Pest Management Programs Classic Early Detection – Rapid Response APHIS-PPQ model –Prevention –Preparedness –Response –Recovery How do other USDA agencies and the LGU system fit in the model?

3. North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007 National Pest Management Programs Prevention/Recognition –Education – LGU Extension, NPDN First Detector Program –Detection – NPDN First Detector Program, IPM-PIPE Preparedness –Identification/Confirmation – NPDN and APHIS-PPQ Response –Regulatory officials including State Departments of Ag Recovery –ARS, RMA, National Plant Disease Recovery System, and locally with LGU cooperation

4. North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007 National Pest Management Programs IPM-PIPE: Pest Information Platform for Extension –Multiple components Detection Reporting Risk assessment Communication –Observation network Repeated and Single observations (Sentinel + ) Highly dependent on LGU Extension collaboration –Currently deployed in 35 US states, 3 Canadian Provinces and 3 Mexican states

5. North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007

8. http://www.sbrusa.net Observation Map National Commentary E-Mail Alerts State Commentary Disease Forecasting Historical Reference Pest Navigation Management Tools

9. North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007

10. Private side Expanded mapping tools including forecast models Crop and Pest Drop-down menus Date Selection Tool Data and Commentary Tools

11. North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007 Horizontal Transport Impact Pre- conditioning SOURCE AREADESTINATION AREA Takeoff and Ascent Descent and Landing Earth’s surface Earth’s atmosphere Aerobiology Transport Process

12. North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007 Turbulent Transport and Dilution in the Atmosphere Conceptual Model of Soybean Rust Transport Process Synoptic Scale Airflows Govern Transport Direction and Speed Turbulent Diffusion and Wind Shear Govern Dilution Survival of Spores while Airborne Deposition of Spores into a Soybean Crop Dry Deposition Due to Wind and Turbulence Wet Deposition Due to Washout by Precipitation Escape of Spores from Canopy Spore Production Colonization of Soybean Crop Ultraviolet Radiation Temperature and Relative Humidity Soybean Plant Growth Stage of Disease Weather Vertical Distribution of Spores in Canopy Canopy Density & Structure Wind & Turbulence Time of Spore Release Soybean Crop Growth Stage Temperature & Leaf Wetness Isard et al. 2005 BioScience 55: 851-862.

13. North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007 Commentary Ensemble Approach for Aerobiology-Based Risk Forecasting

14. North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007 How else can we use the IPM-PIPE? Soybean Aphid Model –County source vs point source (severity) –Shows variable resolution

15. North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007 Potential expansion for the tool Legume viruses and other pest/disease complexes Sweet Corn Lepidoptera Barley head blight Cyst nematodes Citrus diseases (Canker, Tristeza, HLB/Greening) Cereal rusts Any introduced or migratory pest including arthropods Mapping function could be used for invasive and weedy species, as well.

16. North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007 Why so many different pests? The IPM-PIPE is… Adaptable

17. North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007 What the IPM-PIPE is NOT…

18. North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007 The IPM-PIPE is… Real-Time advisory Planting decision aid IPM actions decision aid Communication tool for research & Extension    

19. North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007 What risks are here or coming? Wheat leaf rust Wheat stripe rust Wheat stem rust ‘Ug99’ –TTKS threat –Focused in East Africa (for now) –Movement expected How would the program work in the US? How would the program work globally? A great collaborative opportunity!

20. North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007 Australasia 1902 in Japan Through the 1960s Hawaii 1994 2004 Uganda - 1997 Zimbabwe - 1998 S. Africa - 2001 Slide courtesy: G. Hartman, USDA-ARS Paraguay - 2001 Brazil - 2002 Argentina – 2002 Bolivia – 2003 Soybean Rust Columbia – 2004 (unconfirmed) USA – 2004 Mexico – 2005

21. North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007 More detailed information is available. We welcome your questions & comments! Contact: Marty Draper or Kitty Cardwell mdraper@csrees.usda.gov & kcardwell@csrees.usda.gov

22. North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007

23. The IPM-PIPE is… Dependent on Risk Management Agency, now Building models for the future… President’s FY08 budget includes $2.3M for soybean rust Request for Concept Notes released last week To be used to leverage funding from RMA Full RFA for new 2008 projects will follow when level of support is determined

24. North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007 Obstacles to expanding the network? –Funding –Collaboration building –Capacity in diagnostic labs –Capacity of extension specialists