1. Fusarium Head Blight Outbreak Frequency under a Changing Climate Environment J M Fernandes, W Pavan and E Del Ponte

2. Introduction Southern states – dryland Spring types – grown during winter –spring season Warming temperatures Increase in precipitation 60´s 90´s

3. Wheat yield-reducing factors in Brazil Soil fertility (Al +++ ) Late Frost Sprouting Insects (BYDV) Fungal Diseases

4. Wheat diseases epidemiology Pathogen Host Environment (climate) If we know enough …..then we can model!

5. A Generic Disease Model Approach

6. Model Parameterization All disease parameters are read from a XML file Plant organs (disease targets) get from crop model

7. A Generic Disease Model Approach Epidemiological simulation model with three scales of spatial hierarchy Leaves-Plant-Field Lesions Expansion rate (Stochastic)

8. Linking Crop Models to Disease Models Crop models legacy (DSSAT) Disease simulation models Models written in different computers language Ability to run models directly in the Web

9. Linking Crop Models to Disease Models

11. Window of susceptibility Highly influenced by weather variables FUSARIUM HEAD BLIGHT OF WHEAT

12. Monitoring spore density in the air…

13. Spore cloud model

14. A simulation example... Cumulative infection risks Wet season Dry season

15. FHB Model Applications HTML / XML / JPG XHTML / XML HTTP Request Model Persistence Control View SDB Class Filter JSP ActionServlet Request Simulation Results Response SGDC WS CropSim SMPD Crop-FHB Model Climate Change Studies FHB Model On Season Warning System

16. Study area and climate dataset Passo Fundo ( 28°15'00"S, 52°25'12"W). Embrapa Wheat, (over 25 years of FHB records) A long-term daily climate dataset was available starting in1930´s Pergamino, Argentina

17. FHB - Multiple simulations Simulations were performed for a 30-day period starting June 1st. Infection periods were computed in a period of time from the 4 th to as long as the 20 th day following beginning of wheat heading (time of flowering). Exploratory analysis

18. FHB – Multiple Simulation Results, Passo Fundo, Brazil

19. FHB – Multiple Simulation Results Pergamino, Argentina

20. FHB x ENSO Phases Passo Fundo, BrazilPergamino, Argentina El NiñoLa Niña Wet Dry

21. Exploring South Atlantic Surface Temperature and FHB, Southeastern, SA

22. South Atlantic Surface Temperature and FHB, Passo Fundo, Brazil X X

23. South Atlantic Surface Temperature and FHB, Pergamino, Argentina X

24. Some highlights…. Minimum tillage plays a minor rule Weather is likely the driving force for epidemics Epidemics outbreaks are more frequent than before The environment is highly favorable to FHB development La Niña years are less favorable South Atlantic Surface Temperature may be useful for seasonal forecast.

25. Further research.... DBS Wheat Growth ModelWeather and climate forecast Panel of Experts Agronomists Economists Farmers Crop consultants Management Practices Cropsim -Wheat Cropsim -Wheat

26. FHB x Heading dates More Resistant Cultivars Chemical control Late Frost

27. Crop Failure

28. Thanks for your attention……