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Astral Foods Limited Market Update Presentation March 2012.

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Presentation on theme: "Astral Foods Limited Market Update Presentation March 2012."— Presentation transcript:

1 Astral Foods Limited Market Update Presentation March 2012

2 Contact details 2 Tel: +27 (0) 12 667 5468 Fax:+27 (0) 86 504 2002 Astral Foods Corporate Office 92 Koranna Avenue, Doringkloof Centurion, 0157, Gauteng, South Africa Chris Schutte Chief Executive Officer Tel : +27 (0) 12 667 5468 Fax : +27 (0) 86 504 2002 Email: ces@astralfoods.com Website: www.astralfoods.com Daan Ferreira Group Financial Director Tel : +27 (0) 12 667 5468 Fax : +27 (0) 86 504 1602 Email: daan.ferreira@astralfoods.com Astral Foods Limited

3 Market Information 3

4 Raw materials – Yellow Maize 11Aug1112Sep1112Oct1109Nov1109Dec1112Jan1209Feb1209Mar12 Comments Corn acres harvested (mha) 84.4 83.9 84.0 Corn yield (bu/a) 153.0148.1 146.7 147.1 Yield drop from 158.7 in Jul11 to 147.1 in Jan12 due to adverse weather and below average crop conditions Corn STU ratio 5.4%5.3%6.8%6.7% 6.3% Impact of lower production results in the lowest STU ratio since 1995/6 CBOT price (c/bu) 678726645661600652643636 The actual Corn price on CBOT is currently 636c, down from 786c in Jun11, a drop of 19% SAFEX YM price (r/t) 20102198209423752461273525102485 SAFEX YM price rose from R1730 in Jul11 to R2735 in Jan12, a rise of 58% 4

5 Raw materials – Soybeans 11Aug1112Sep1112Oct1109Nov1109Dec1112Jan1209Feb1209Mar12 Comments Soybean acres (mha) 73.8 73.7 73.6 Soybean yield (bu/a) 41.441.841.541.3 41.5 Yield drop from 43.4 in Jul11 to 41.5 in Jan12 due to adverse weather resulting in below average crop conditions Soybean STU ratio 4.9%5.2%5.1%6.3%7.6%9.1% The estimated STU for the current season is 9.1% CBOT price (c/bu) 13011417123611951133119812321333 The actual Soybean price on CBOT declined from 1417c in Sep11 to 1133c in Dec11, a fall of 20%. Since then it rose 18% to 1333c SAFEX price (r/t) 33153615324033753220344532703505 SAFEX Soya price dropped from 3615 in Sep11 to 3220 in Dec11, a drop of 11%. Since then it rose 9% to 3505 5

6 Safex Yellow Maize price from October 2004 Source: CJA Strategic Risk Brokers 6

7 Safex Yellow Maize vs CBOT Corn in Rand terms Source: CJA Strategic Risk Brokers 7

8 Poultry imports + 29% February2012 (tons)2011 (tons)Var (tons)Var (%) Chicken22 09915 8996 20039.0 MDM/Turkey14 2118 0576 15476.4 Total36 31023 95612 35451.6 YTDF2012 (tons)F2011 (tons)Var (tons)Var (%) Chicken104 34273 70330 63941.6 MDM/Turkey68 90553 72615 17928.3 Total173 247127 42945 81836.0 8

9 Total poultry imports - chicken, turkey and MDM Industry trends and statistics | Tons 9 Monthly (tons) OctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep F201124 68423 42428 40326 96323 95529 36626 07632 81334 39735 97034 27029 043 F201233 34834 47132 72136 38836 319 Var (%)35.1%47.2%15.2%35.0%51.6%

10 Poultry imports per month + 29% 10 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

11 Per capita consumption: South Africa Industry trends and statistics | 11

12 Industry broiler selling prices Industry trends and statistics | Source: SAPA 36 month average = R13.17 Rand per kg 12

13 Broiler price vs maize price vs feed price vs imports Rand per kg Rand & tons 13

14 Broiler price vs food price inflation Source: CJA Strategic Risk Brokers Rand per kg 14

15 Anti-dumping tariffs USA Bone-in portions / leg quarters General tariff and rate of duty on bone-in portions: 220 c/kg In addition, an anti-dumping duty on US producers: Tyson 224 c/kg, Gold Kist 245 c/kg & others 696 c/kg Brazil Boneless cuts General tariff and rate of duty on boneless cuts: 5% In addition provisional anti-dumping duty of 6.26% ad valorum on boneless cuts produced by Aurora Alimentos, and 46.59% ad valorum on boneless cuts produced by all other producers in Brazil Frozen whole chicken General tariff and rate of duty on frozen whole chickens / hens: 27% In addition provisional anti-dumping duty of 62.93% ad valorum on whole frozen chicken from Brazil 15

16 Brazil provisional anti-dumping duty % of Brazil imports affected - 5 months ending February (F2012) % boneless cuts 6.1 % % frozen whole 10.4 % % of Brazil 16.6 % [≈ 8.8% of Total imports] % imports by country - 2011 16

17 Influence on local importers? Minimal impact expected on local importers through the imposition of the Brazilian provisional anti-dumping duty The two categories on which the additional duty is applied are small Importers will likely source these products elsewhere The duty on the boneless cuts will impact mainly on the catering sector Leg quarters? South African Poultry Association investigations on-going There has been insufficient evidence to prove beyond doubt dumping of Brazilian leg quarters Next steps? Incumbent on industry to prove dumping and negative impact on local market Industry has to co-operate and work collectively (Competition Commission?) 17 Brazil provisional anti-dumping duty

18 Brazil benchmark – broiler efficiencies (2011) + 29% Industry trends and statistics | Source: Astral, USDA & Nutron Brazil 18

19 Astral broiler production performance (37.8 days) (34.7 days) 19

20 Specific allegations – Astral Foods Astral currently negotiating one settlement to close all open matters Poultry industry investigation - 2009 The industry wide investigation into the animal feed and poultry industry initiated in 2009 is on-going Competition commission matters 20

21 Negative  High industry chicken stock levels  High imports (Brazilian leg quarters)  Maize price gap closing – old vs new season  Maize exports to Mexico to continue [vessels for Mexico exports booked to September 2012 / SA total exports of maize forecast at 2.5 million tons for marketing year)  Lower maize yields expected for new crop due to adverse weather (< 11 million tons) Positive  Anti-dumping tariff application and provisional anti-dumping duties on Brazil  Upward price potential and long term upward trend in chicken consumption  Return of good production efficiencies following industry wide challenges  Increasing local soya bean and meal production  Maize import opportunities from Zambia Outlook – short term 21

22 Q & A

23 The information and opinions contained in this document have been compiled or arrived at by Astral Foods from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made to their accuracy, completeness or appropriateness. All opinions and estimates contained in this document are subject to change without notice. Astral Foods undertakes no obligation to update, or to correct any inaccuracies which may become apparent in this document. Astral Foods does not accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, punitive or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its contents. This document is incomplete without reference to, and should be viewed solely in conjunction with the oral briefing provided by Astral Foods. The document contains forward-looking statements about the company’s operations and financial conditions. They are based on Astral Foods best estimates and information at the time of writing. They are nonetheless subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies many of which are beyond the control of the company. Unanticipated events will occur and actual future events may differ materially from current expectations due to new business opportunities, changes in priorities by the company as well as other factors. Any of these factors may materially affect the company’s future business activities and its ongoing financial results. DISCLAIMER 23


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