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Rice Situation and Outlook Robert Coats, Professor and Extension Economist Southern Outlook Conference September 22- 24, 2008 Monthly Rice Rice - protected.

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Presentation on theme: "Rice Situation and Outlook Robert Coats, Professor and Extension Economist Southern Outlook Conference September 22- 24, 2008 Monthly Rice Rice - protected."— Presentation transcript:

1 Rice Situation and Outlook Robert Coats, Professor and Extension Economist Southern Outlook Conference September , 2008 Monthly Rice Rice - protected commodity Given global food price inflation, the scattered global food riots, and now a global financial crisis Do you now believe that rice will be less or more protected by the major rice producing countries of the world?

2 U.S. Long Grain Rice Harvested By State , Thousand Acres Primary U.S. rice discussion will be on long grain rice

3 U.S. Medium Grain Rice Harvested By State , Thousand Acres

4 U.S. Short Grain Rice Harvested By State , Thousand Acres

5 U.S. All Rice Harvested Acres, ,000 Acres U.S. rice acreage declines with increasing cost of production and increased price uncertainty

6 Soybeans, Weekly Corn, Weekly Wheat, Weekly Rice, Weekly Food inflation/riots

7 U.S. long grain, No. 2, 4% Thai 100% grade B Vietnam, 5 percent RICE: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE Nominal Rice Quotes – 2007 to Present One Outcome From High Rice Price Was Food Riots

8 Food riots were expected

9 April 10, 2008

10 Why is there a rice supply problem? U.S. and global rice supplies are tight but adequate. Problem Hording, processing, distribution and/or availability

11 World Rice Milled Consumption and Production 1979/80 – 2008/09 Millions of Metric Tons 3 of 4 8 of 13

12 World Rice Ending Stocks 1978/ /09 Millions of Metric Tons Global ending stocks are projected to increase 4% in 2008/09

13

14 World Rice Area Harvested 1978/ /09 Millions of Hectares

15 World Rice Milled Production 1978/ /09 Millions of Metric Tons

16 World Rice Trade Calendar Year Millions of Metric Tons Protectionism Financial Crisis

17 U.S. Long Grain Rice Situation

18 U.S. Long Grain Rice Production 1982/83 – 2008/09 Million hundredweight All Rice 4

19 U.S. Long Grain Rice Total Supply 1982/83 – 2008/09 Million hundredweight 2

20 U.S. All Rice Imports 1970/71 – 2008/09 Million hundredweight

21 U.S. Long Grain Rice Domestic and Residual 1982/83 – 2008/09 Million hundredweight 2

22 U.S. Long Grain Rice Total Exports 1982/83 – 2008/09 Million hundredweight Long Grain 3

23 U.S. All Rice Rough Exports 1970/71 – 2008/09 Million hundredweight 3

24 U.S. Long Grain Rice Total Use 1982/83 – 2008/09 Million hundredweight 3

25 U.S. Long Grain Rice Ending Stocks 1982/83 – 2008/09 Million hundredweight

26

27 Rice Outlook

28 World Rice Ending Stocks 1978/ /09 Millions of Metric Tons Improvements in global supply and availability are projected… Global supply will remain tight but adequate Significant damaging global weather event would once again raise major concerns about supply availability

29 World Rice Milled Consumption and Production 1979/80 – 2008/09 Millions of Metric Tons 3 of 4 8 of 13 The major rice producing countries stand ready to take any required action to maintain adequate production

30 World Rice Trade Calendar Year Millions of Metric Tons Exporting countries have and will continue to meet their commitment… Slowing global economy… Results in drop in global rice prices Protectionism Credit Crisis

31 U.S. long grain, No. 2, 4% Thai 100% grade B Vietnam, 5 percent RICE: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE Nominal Rice Quotes – 2003 to Present

32

33 U.S. Long Grain Rice Production 1982/83 – 2008/09 Million hundredweight USDA’s optimism about yields will not be realize which will provide rice prices some support

34 Financial Crisis Bearish For Rice Prices

35 Dow Jones - Industrial Average Chart courtesy of TradingCharts.com: More weakness than strength

36 U.S. Dollar Index Chart courtesy of TradingCharts.com:

37 CBOT Corn Chart courtesy of TradingCharts.com:

38 CBOT Corn Chart courtesy of TradingCharts.com:

39 CBOT Wheat Chart courtesy of TradingCharts.com:

40 CBOT Wheat Chart courtesy of TradingCharts.com:

41 CBOT Soybeans Chart courtesy of TradingCharts.com:

42 CBOT Rough Rice Chart courtesy of TradingCharts.com:

43 CBOT Rough Rice Chart courtesy of TradingCharts.com:

44 U.S. Long Grain Rice Ending Stocks 1982/83 – 2008/09 Million hundredweight

45 Rice Long Grain Monthly Chart USDA 2008/09 $16.26 per cwt Market direction

46

47 End

48 Arkansas Long Grain Rice Harvested Acres and Percent of U.S. Long Grain Harvested Acres, ,000 Acres September 1, 2008

49 California Long Grain Rice Harvested Acres and Percent of U.S. Long Grain Harvested Acres, ,000 Acres September 1, 2008

50 Louisiana Long Grain Rice Harvested Acres and Percent of U.S. Long Grain Harvested Acres, ,000 Acres September 1, 2008

51 Mississippi Long Grain Rice Harvested Acres and Percent of U.S. Long Grain Harvested Acres, ,000 Acres September 1, 2008

52 Missouri Long Grain Rice Harvested Acres and Percent of U.S. Long Grain Harvested Acres, ,000 Acres September 1, 2008

53 Texas Long Grain Rice Harvested Acres and Percent of U.S. Long Grain Harvested Acres, ,000 Acres September 1, 2008

54 U.S. All Rice Harvested By State , Thousand Acres


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