1. 5 ème Forum Industrie & Académie 29 et 30 novembre 2012 – Palaiseau, ENSTA ParisTech IS : la vision AFIS pour les années 2020-2025 Michel Galinier, DT AFIS Version 1.0 1 ENSTA ParisTech - Arts et Métiers ParisTech - ENSTA Bretagne

2. Livre Blanc AFIS: Ingénierie Système: La Vision AFIS pour les années 2020- 2025

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4. White Paper Framework BREAKTHROUGHS EXTRAPOLATIONS System Engineering Vision 2020 AFIS System Engineering Vision 2020 AFIS 2010… Where do we start from ? External drivers Needs & expectations expectations Catherine Devic, EDF Dominique Luzeaux, DGA Jean-Claude Roussel, EADS Innovation Works Alain Faisandier, MAP Systems Gérard Morel, University of Nancy Lorraine Pierre de Chazelles, Airbus Michel Galinier, AFIS Alain Roussel, CS Roland Mazzella, Thales Jean-Luc Garnier, Thales Marc Peyrichon, DCNS Alain Léger, Thalès Alain Kerbrat, CollESys Claude Pourcel, AFIS Eric Bonjour, University of Franche-Comté Gauthier Fanmuy, ADN Gérard Auvray, EADS Astrium Jean-Pierre Meinadier, AFIS Marion Wolff, ESTIA Pascal Gendre, EADS Airbus Régis Mollard, LATI

5. 5 Value of Systems Engineering* *SE-ROI Research Project, Interim Results Aug 2009 Eric Honour Cost overrun and Schedule overrun lessens with increasing Systems Engineering Effort (SEE). Overrun appears to minimize at something greater than 10% SEE Variance in the cost and schedule overrun also lessens with increasing SEE: at low SEE, a project has difficulty predicting its overrun

6. 6 PART 1 : 2010… WHERE DO WHE START FROM? Contents SE Workforce in France SE Processes SE Methodologies Human Ressource at the core of SE Modeling & Architecture Frameworks SE Tools: a small market

7. 7 Systems Engineering Workforce (France vision) Systems engineering manpower: 3% to 5% of the global manpower in major companies A need for 3000 new SE engineers for the next 5 years in France (2009 System@tic survey) A discipline recently addressed by universities: about 100 new SE engineers per year SE research not yet recognized as such: strong need for industry/academia cooperation System@tic survey identify a need of 12000 new systems engineers for the next 5 years in France including Information Systems. Hypothesis: 25% are devoted to Systems Engineering only

8. 8 SE Tools : a small market … compared to CAD * IBM Rational (Doors, System Architect, Rhapsody,…) revenues restricted to SE market (estimated to 20%) Less and less SE tools providers –IBM leadership (3 of the 6 SysML Partners tools come from IBM) –Prohibitive cost for SMEs SE business market size not significant … but significant amount of money is spent by big companies to develop their own SE tools suite –Annual investment > 10 millions / year Efficient workbenches are mandatory for complex systems engineering Lack of efficient standards for data exchange between tools and interface management

9. 9 PART 2 : EXTERNAL DRIVERS FOR CHANGE Content Focusing on core business Business globalisation Never Ending technological evolution Innovate or die… Clean, cost-effective, sustainable processes Social Networks… a major cultural change Skills shortage Three generations in the workplace A new age for Universities Societal And Cultural changes Economical constraints Technological change

10. 10 Companies focus on core business Create value –Development / delivery of services vs products –Take into account (anticipate) the customer comfort and expectations Divestment on non core activities used to reinforce key technologies Federating long term partners –Establishing strong partnerships with companies including the sharing of programme risks (Risk Sharing Partner concept) is an industrial challenge System Design (product, services, capabilities) through life cycle cost is the business challenge Responsibility in terms of reliability / safety Need to be at the leading edge on key technologies

11. 11 Skills shortage expected for 2015-2020 (France Vision) Baby boomers massively retiring Lack of young engineers Centre dAnalyse Stratégique, Qualifications et métiers de demain, Novembre 2009

12. 12 PART 3 – Enterprise needs Content Develop Effective Systems Organize the Enterprise Develop Innovative Services Interconnect Systems Simplify … KISS to the extreme Develop Heterogeneous and Flexible Systems Develop Ultra Scalable Autonomous Systems Increase the Confidence in Complex Systems Model and Simulate globally the System Integrate Human Factor Capitalize, Find and Reuse Information Manage Obsolescence and new Technologies

13. 13 The KISS principle : a universal and interdisciplinary challenge Product /system complexity Product /system variants Development time Work distribution & organization Architecture Behavior Variants Multiple skills Organization Product / System Process Dimensions of complexity Reduce the competency demand, e.g. modular architecture design Deal with uncertainty, e.g. resilience engineering Design for maintainability Reduce the competency demand, e.g. modular architecture design Deal with uncertainty, e.g. resilience engineering Design for maintainability Reduce interactive complexity design Reference architectures and design rules to simplify interactions and to reduce non-determinism, Provable isolation mechanisms in time and space Verifiable and safe sharing of services and controls Design for reuse Reduce interactive complexity design Reference architectures and design rules to simplify interactions and to reduce non-determinism, Provable isolation mechanisms in time and space Verifiable and safe sharing of services and controls Design for reuse Functionnality User requirements What are the real needs ? Will the system be understood and useable ? Keep It Simple & Smart

14. 14 Integrate the Human Factor The Human Factor as a part of the solution Optimize the human-machine coupling Adequate Methods& tools for HF modeling

15. 15 PART 4: EXTRAPOLATIONS Content Agile and Lean processes SE for small projects and SMEs Efficient Collaborative Engineering Model based System Engineering Service Oriented Architectures The Operators Mindmap in System Analysis New Management Schemes Certified SE Training, supported by Research Knowledge & Skill of Workforce Concepts and Processes Tools & Methodology Capability

16. 16 Agile&Lean design Co-creative process User experience oriented engineering Multiple skills involved Partnership agreement with sub- contractors « science push » + « market pull » Lean design, engineering and manufacturing 6 Principles 1.Customer defines value 2.Map the value stream 3.Make value flow continuously 4.Let customers pull value 5.Pursue perfection 6.Respect people All along the product life cycle Lean maturity model Dependability approaches in system design Be AgileThink Lean

17. 17 Towards Model Based SE Document centric model centric All along the product life-cycle Domain Specific Languages Multi-domains modeling & simulation

18. 18 Certified SE training –System Engineering Education : Pre-recruitment Agreements Universities-Industry on SE training, SE Certification and SE curriculum Individual certification For instance: GRCSE Graduate Reference Curriculum in Systems Engineering under development by INCOSE –A way of recognition and a mobility asset SE as a bridge between Technical and Non Technical disciplines; seen more and more as a key factor for wider job opportunities –SE Company Certification : Manage competitiveness and get new markets

19. 19 PART 5: MAJOR BREAKTHROUGHS Content Domain specific approach Risk sharing between business partners Formalizing human-system interactions Design Patterns to master system complexity Large scale Virtual Prototyping Economic and social innovation New tool vendors for SE toolsets Tools Skills Formation SE Process Design of appropriate tools Conducting integrated design The system design Industrial organization

20. 20 Domain specific approach Based on system thinking and generic SE approach Strong links with the core business –Engineers will develop airplanes, nuclear plants, air traffic management systems,…with domain oriented objects, vocabulary,… but based on a system vision and approach (in order to better consider interfaces, operational scenarios, safety, evolution, self-healing, etc.) SE as a generic discipline could be complemented with domain specific approaches This combination could be the source of drastic improvements in terms of reuse, cost and delay improvements The generic SE discipline could be developed in an associative manner Good system engineers must have strong domain knowledge! … Good engineers must have strong experience in system engineering !

21. 21 Putting Design patterns to good use to master system complexity Systems designers can master complexity using hierarchical design approaches Need to perform design activities at every level of abstraction Use of validated design patterns –At high level of abstraction –Capitalise solutions on problems yet solved, data, and corporate knowledge –Fitting domains business –Design systems more quickly and more efficiently … but need to understand the limits and weaknesses of design patterns 18 months….. 7 years 8000 exigences Ingénierie du besoin : 5 ans 150 exigences Ingénierie du besoin : 1 semaine

22. SE an Art and a Science Sharing a vision … and working together to make it a reality !

23. 23 Next steps Building a new AFIS Strategic Plan for 2013-2018 Building the SE Education & Research White Book AFIS 2013-2018 Strategic Plan Updating AFIS 2013-2018 Strategic Plan Updating 2007- 2011 Strategic Plan … White Book 2013- 2018 Strategic Plan Steering Board WG Leaders 2007-2011 SP Assessment

24. 24 Informations pratiques Accès au livre –Version électronique sur site AFIS (www.afis.fr) Section Livre Blanc (avec login adhérent) –Version papier: requête à afis@afis.fr Commentaires/suggestions/propositions à mic.galinier@free.fr