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© Crown copyright Met Office Scottish Institute For Policing Research Alan Motion, Business Manager Government Services University of Dundee, 21 st June 2011
© Crown copyright Met Office Time To Adapt? Climate Impact Risk Framework © Crown copyright Met Office
Context – Fluvial Flood Risk HadCM3 climate model pattern Fluvial flood risk: % change in global flood risk
© Crown copyright Met Office Defining Risk “risk refers to the expected losses from a particular hazard to a specified element at risk in a particular future time period…” UNDP “commonly defined as the product of the probability or likelihood of occurrence of a consequence” UKCIP “Risk combines the magnitude of an impact with the probability of occurrence” IPCC We assume Risk is a combination of Hazard and Vulnerability Hazard is a combination of the magnitude of an event and the likelihood of it occurring Vulnerability is a combination of a given systems exposure, resilience and adaptive capacity
© Crown copyright Met Office Adaptation
© Crown copyright Met Office STEP 1 – REQUIREMENTS Aim: To clearly identify the needs and objectives and the extent of the project, including the required outcomes and expectations.
© Crown copyright Met Office STEP 2 –Scoping Aim: To explore how available data sets can meet the key requirements.
© Crown copyright Met Office STEP 3 – BASELINE CLIMATE RISK Aim: To assess the present risk due to the current weather and climate.
© Crown copyright Met Office STEP 4 – FUTURE CLIMATE RISK Aim: To assess in detail how the key risks identified in step 1 are likely to change in the future.
© Crown copyright Met Office UKCP09 Data Three different emission scenarios Seven different timeframes 25km grid, 16 admin regions, 23 river-basins and 9 marine regions
© Crown copyright Met Office STEP 5 – ADAPTATION OPTIONS Aim: To explore potential adaptation options associated with the key risks.
© Crown copyright Met Office STEP 6 – OUTCOME COMMUNICATION Aim: To communicate the project results and outcomes.
© Crown copyright Met Office STEP 7 – REVIEW, MONITOR AND UPDATE Aim: To review that the assessment has met the requirements owner/client, and identify future steps to be taken
© Crown copyright Met Office Very briefly: West Midlands FRS Case Study Climate Impact & Risk assessment Framework (CIRF) 2 risks Surface water flooding (pluvial) Vegetation-related secondary fires Risk change for 2050’s using medium-high emission scenario WMFS provided: 10 year’s worth data 500,000 incidents
© Crown copyright Met Office Hazards and Vulnerability Population density Basements Susceptibility to surface water flooding Population >65 years Blocks of flatsLand cover Rainfall days 1-10mm Rainfall days 11-20mmRainfall days >20mm Vulnerability Hazard Vulnerability Hazard
Areas with a higher incident count than explained by population density Residual risk (after removing population density) Areas with a lower incident count than explained by population density
© Crown copyright Met Office Headline Outcomes? Strategic Deployment Hazard related Right place, right time Change management What do we need? Where do we need it? When? Support to business case for change
© Crown copyright Met Office Together Rory Campbell - RE09 Tim Donovan - CFOA Autumn Conference.
Global Data Integration CRED Workshop October 26, 2009 Greg Yetman World Data Center for Human Interactions in the Environment.
© Crown copyright Met Office NI IHEEM May 2014 Climate Change Alex Hill, Chief Advisor’s Office
Mapping Future Hazards in South East London Interpreting climate change models and predicting the impact of EWE’s Dr Stephen Blenkinsop
Adapting to Climate Change in Greater Manchester: the EcoCities and GRaBS projects Greater Manchester Planning and Housing Commission Dr Jeremy.
Assessment of Vulnerability to Climate Change and Human Rights Presentation by Renate Christ, Secretary of the IPCC Geneva, 22 October 2008.
© UKCIP 2006 UKCP09 and the West Midlands region West Midlands Regional Climate Change Adaptation Partnership, 8th July 2009 Chris Thomas, UK Climate Impacts.
Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments Hands-On Training Workshop Introduction and Overview of Vulnerability and Adaptation Frameworks.
BAS I C BASIC Vulnerability and Adaptation in Coastal Zones of India Lessons from Indias NATCOM D.Parthasarathy, K.Narayanan, and A.Patwardhan Indian Institute.
1 Disaster Risk Reduction as means of Climate Change Adaptation -The Africa Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction -The Hyogo Framework for Action
SIPR Dundee. © Crown copyright Scottish Flood Forecasting Service Pete Buchanan – Met Office Richard Maxey – SEPA SIPR, Dundee, 21 June 2011.
Physical science findings relevant to climate change adaptation Richard Jones, Met Office Science Fellow/Visiting Professor, School of Geography and Environment.
37 th OESAI Conference David Lesolle University of Botswana.
Tim Daley Northwest Climate Change Partnership Climate Change Adaptation in the Northwest.
Second National Communication Anne Rasmussen National Climate Change Summit 2009.
Vulnerability and Adaptation Kristie L. Ebi, Ph.D., MPH Executive Director, WGII TSU PAHO/WHO Workshop on Vulnerability and Adaptation Guidance 20 July.
© Crown copyright Met Office ETC – DRR CCA 1° Core Team Meeting ETC Technical Paper on Extreme Weather and Climate Events Peter Dempsey, ,
Atmospheric Research Using Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation Roger N. Jones In-session Workshop on Impacts Of, and Vulnerability and Adaptation To,
Assessment of Extreme Rainfall in the UK Marie Ekström
RESTRICTED Preparing for the Future Jonathan Capstick
© Crown copyright Met Office Providing High-Resolution Regional Climates for Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning Joseph Intsiful, African.
© Crown copyright Met Office An Introduction to PRECIS PRECIS Workshop, University of Reading, 13 th -17 th May, 2013.
DROUGHT MONITORING CENTRE - NAIROBI WHAT COULD BE DONE ON DROUGHT WITHIN ISDR PLATFORM?
Economics of Climate Change Adaptation: Regional Consultation on Capacity Building Needs in Asia Four Seasons Hotel, Bangkok Thailand ECONOMICS OF.
Protecting our Health from Climate Change: a Training Course for Public Health Professionals Chapter 5: Policy Responses to Address the Health Risks of.
Supporting LDCs to advance their National Adaptation Plans Asia Regional Training Workshop Marriott Resort and Spa, Pattaya, Thailand, February 2014.
Risk assessment and Natural Hazards. Concept of vulnerability (e.g. fatalities in two contrasting societies) Deaths 1 …………………………………………
Turin, Nov 2009ToT on Integrating DRR into the CCA UNDAF1 Disasters and Climate Change in UNDAF Climate change effects occurrence of natural hazards.
READY-TO-USE DATA New sources of open risk information.
1. FHWA Climate Change Resilience Program ◦ Assessment Framework ◦ Transportation Vulnerability Flash Flood Vulnerability project ◦ Background ◦ Objectives.
Climate Change Adaptation Workshop Our greatest risks and how we identified them in the project: Highways and Transport.
Country Context and status of National Communication National climate change priorities, socio-economic scenarios and the driving forces Climate.
UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, april 2004 Methodologies for, Approaches to, and Frameworks.
TUC, 21st October 2013 Climate change – the scientific evidence and its implications Why climate change matters to us all Julia Slingo, Met Office Chief.
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support.
Hazard Mitigation Policy and Planning Process and Past and Current Initiatives DISASTER MITIGATION FACILITY FOR THE CARIBBEAN Strengthening Regional Capacity.
State of Water workshop, 30 March 2012 Henk Wolters, ETC/ICM - Deltares 1 Flood vulnerability Thomas Kjeldsen, Michael Hilden, and many others Henk Wolters.
Professor John Handley University of Manchester Adapting the city: preparing for climate change in Greater Manchester with Jeremy Carter, Gina Cavan, Angela.
Extreme weather and related risks: promoting healthy, resilient communities Dr Angie Bone, Head of Extreme Events and Health Protection
Partnership excellence growth Vulnerability: Concepts and applications to coral reef-dependent regions (Work in progress) Allison Perry.
Key Words in disaster Management Dhammika Mahendre.
Responding to the risk of flooding Andrew Watkinson School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia
Risk and RACI: Defining Clear Roles July 15, 2014.
Regional Approaches to Risk Management Roger N. Jones Living with our Changing Climate IOCI Seminar and Workshop 16 August 2005.
UK Foresight Programme - Overview ASSOCHAM Conference: “Calamities: Nature or Human Action? Challenges and Responsibilities”. 5 March 2014, New Delhi.
Principal Investigator: Dr. Amir Muhammed, Director Asianics Agro. Dev. International, Islamabad, Pakistan Countries Involved: Pakistan, India, Nepal,
RESTRICTED Adapting to Climate Change in the UK. RESTRICTED Summer 2007 floods in the UK: 55,000+ homes and businesses flooded 140,000+ homes in Gloucestershire.
Care Home Forum 19 th May 2015 Sarah Chittock – Merton Civil Contingencies Officer Taryn Milton – Emergency Planning Manager – Epsom St. Helier.
UNDP Guidance for National Communication Project Proposals UNFCCC Workshop on the Preparation of National Communications from non-Annex I Parties Manila,
URBAN FLOODS IN GREECE Current situation and major research and development needs in Urban Flood Management Cost meeting, Warsaw, 29-31/5/2008 Vassilopoulos.
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