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© Crown copyright Met Office Scottish Institute For Policing Research Alan Motion, Business Manager Government Services University of Dundee, 21 st June 2011
© Crown copyright Met Office Time To Adapt? Climate Impact Risk Framework © Crown copyright Met Office
Context – Fluvial Flood Risk HadCM3 climate model pattern Fluvial flood risk: % change in global flood risk
© Crown copyright Met Office Defining Risk “risk refers to the expected losses from a particular hazard to a specified element at risk in a particular future time period…” UNDP “commonly defined as the product of the probability or likelihood of occurrence of a consequence” UKCIP “Risk combines the magnitude of an impact with the probability of occurrence” IPCC We assume Risk is a combination of Hazard and Vulnerability Hazard is a combination of the magnitude of an event and the likelihood of it occurring Vulnerability is a combination of a given systems exposure, resilience and adaptive capacity
© Crown copyright Met Office Adaptation
© Crown copyright Met Office STEP 1 – REQUIREMENTS Aim: To clearly identify the needs and objectives and the extent of the project, including the required outcomes and expectations.
© Crown copyright Met Office STEP 2 –Scoping Aim: To explore how available data sets can meet the key requirements.
© Crown copyright Met Office STEP 3 – BASELINE CLIMATE RISK Aim: To assess the present risk due to the current weather and climate.
© Crown copyright Met Office STEP 4 – FUTURE CLIMATE RISK Aim: To assess in detail how the key risks identified in step 1 are likely to change in the future.
© Crown copyright Met Office UKCP09 Data Three different emission scenarios Seven different timeframes 25km grid, 16 admin regions, 23 river-basins and 9 marine regions
© Crown copyright Met Office STEP 5 – ADAPTATION OPTIONS Aim: To explore potential adaptation options associated with the key risks.
© Crown copyright Met Office STEP 6 – OUTCOME COMMUNICATION Aim: To communicate the project results and outcomes.
© Crown copyright Met Office STEP 7 – REVIEW, MONITOR AND UPDATE Aim: To review that the assessment has met the requirements owner/client, and identify future steps to be taken
© Crown copyright Met Office Very briefly: West Midlands FRS Case Study Climate Impact & Risk assessment Framework (CIRF) 2 risks Surface water flooding (pluvial) Vegetation-related secondary fires Risk change for 2050’s using medium-high emission scenario WMFS provided: 10 year’s worth data 500,000 incidents
© Crown copyright Met Office Hazards and Vulnerability Population density Basements Susceptibility to surface water flooding Population >65 years Blocks of flatsLand cover Rainfall days 1-10mm Rainfall days 11-20mmRainfall days >20mm Vulnerability Hazard Vulnerability Hazard
Areas with a higher incident count than explained by population density Residual risk (after removing population density) Areas with a lower incident count than explained by population density
© Crown copyright Met Office Headline Outcomes? Strategic Deployment Hazard related Right place, right time Change management What do we need? Where do we need it? When? Support to business case for change
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