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© Crown copyright Scottish Flood Forecasting Service Pete Buchanan – Met Office Richard Maxey – SEPA SIPR, Dundee, 21 June 2011
© Crown copyright SFFS The ‘Weather Machine ’
© Crown copyright OBSERVATI0NS DETERMINISTIC FORECASTS PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS
© Crown copyright Observations – Monitoring and Validation Lightning Detection Weather Radar Weather Station Satellite Data River Gauges
© Crown copyright Deterministic Forecasts - First ‘Guess’ machine data Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Gives us an initial look at the ‘what’ (type of precipitation, intensity and amount), the ‘where’, the ‘when’ and ‘how much’? Various models, diagnostics and post processing including wave, currents and surge for coastal forecasting Hydrological Models Objective look at the impacts of the weather on river flows and flood risk
© Crown copyright Probabilistic Forecasts – What is the likelihood of it happening? We can objectively measure the probability of critical events occurring by analysing the uncertainty in a particular forecast. When matched with impact, the overall risk can be assessed. As with the deterministic weather data, probabilistic weather data can be fed into the hydrological models to look a range of outcomes for the hydrological forecasts and hence build probabilities of critical river thresholds being exceeded.
© Crown copyright REAL WORLD MACHINE WORLD EXPERT GUIDANCE HYDROLOGIST METEOROLOGIST FLOOD GUIDANCE STATEMENT (FGS) INPUTS ANALYSIS OUTPUT CONSULTATIONIMPROVEMENTSDEVELOPMENTS SEPA FLOOD ADVISORS MET OFFICE PWS ADVISORS SFFS OPERATIONAL TEAMS USERS CASE STUDIES WORKSHOPS STAKEHOLDER MEETINGS TRAINING LIAISON REFINING PRODUCING FEEDBACK TO SCIENTISTS FEEDBACK TO MODELERS REVIEW PRODUCTS AND METHODS INTRODUCE NEW TECHNOLOGY
© Crown copyright SFFS Operational Support -24 HR watch and technical support -Strong and effective partnership between Met Office, SEPA and Stakeholders
© Crown copyright What is likely to happen in the future? Supercomputer Upgrade IBM Power 7 upgrade in 2011 will triple Met Office supercomputer capacity. This will pave the way for significant science and capability developments during 2012 and beyond. Exploiting Uncertainty New, sophisticated high resolution ensemble forecasting systems will improve the forecasting of the probability of a significant event occurring - giving us even more confidence in the Flood Guidance Statement status. ‘Strategic Intervention’ will enable the Chief Forecaster to choose the best data for downstream product generation
© Crown copyright +
Flood vigilance and early alerting Raise early awareness of potential flooding through a 5 day flood forecast Flood Alert stage to warn people of the possibility of flooding
© Crown copyright SEPA Flood Forecasting Hydrologist Normally based in Perth On call Met Office Public Weather Desk Based in Aberdeen 24 hour shift working
© Crown copyright Flood Guidance Statement
© Crown copyright Flood Guidance Statement Flood risk for next 5 days Colour coded Rivers, Coastal, Surface Water Issued daily (or more frequently) Spatial detail depends on lead time Issued to Cat 1 & 2 responders and SEPA
© Crown copyright Days 1 and 2 Flood Alert areas
© Crown copyright Days 3, 4, 5 Strategic Coordination Group areas
© Crown copyright Flood Risk Matrix
© Crown copyright
Daily production SEPA and Met Office telephone discussions Final issue by 1030 365 days a year Afternoon and evening updates when appropriate
© Crown copyright Distribution
© Crown copyright Flood Alerts Early awareness of possible flooding Be vigilant, prepare for flooding Cover the whole of Scotland Medium risk (amber) corresponds to Flood Alert Issued by SFFS via Floodline Warnings Direct
© Crown copyright
Future challenges Scotland-wide gridded model Forecasts “everywhere” Probabilistic forecasting Snow melt Short duration intense rainfall events
SCOTTISH FLOOD FORECASTING SERVICE
Ensemble Forecasting of High-Impact Weather Richard Swinbank with thanks to various, mainly Met Office, colleagues High-Impact Weather THORPEX follow-on.
WMO’s Activities in Disaster Risk Reduction
World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water WMO Operational network and technical capabilities for provision of Meteorological,
Chapter 13 – Weather Analysis and Forecasting
© UKCIP 2006 UKCIP08 What to expect from the next set of climate change scenarios Richard Lamb UK Climate Impacts Programme.
Education and Training Activities in Support to DPM Programme I. K. Al-Atwi Chief, Training Activities Division Education and Training Department-WMO DISASTER.
Flood Risk Management Helping us help you Gordon Trapmore - Flood & Coastal Risk Manager Devon & Cornwall Kevin Barnes - Flood Resilience Team Leader.
Report of the Q2 Short Range QPF Discussion Group Jon Ahlquist Curtis Marshall John McGinley - lead Dan Petersen D. J. Seo Jean Vieux.
Adaptations to Climate Change in Africa’s Water Sector: Contributions of the World Meteorological Organization Datius Rutashobya Climate and Water Department.
PRESENTS: FORECASTING FOR OPERATIONS AND DESIGN February 16 th 2011 – Aberdeen.
Page 1© Crown copyright 2006ESWWIII, Royal Library of Belgium, Brussels, Nov 15 th 2006 Forecasting uncertainty: the ensemble solution Mike Keil, Ken Mylne,
© Crown copyright Met Office Scottish Institute For Policing Research Alan Motion, Business Manager Government Services University of Dundee, 21 st June.
© Crown copyright Met Office Hazards – UK perspective 1 st Tech Workshop on Standards for Hazard Monitoring, Databases etc. Graeme Forrester, WMO Geneva,
Michael Cranston Flood Forecasting and Warning Manager SIPR Event, Dundee, 21 st June 2011.
Gridded OCF Probabilistic Forecasting For Australia For more information please contact © Commonwealth of Australia 2011 Shaun Cooper.
© Crown copyright Met Office Enhanced rainfall services Paul Davies.
Steve Taylor Flood Forecasting Team Leader Anglian Region
Climate-Change Impacting Hydrologic Forecasting Reggina Cabrera NOAA/National Weather Service Eastern Region, Chief Hydrologic Services Division.
Seasonal Volume Forecasts Using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the 2008 Water Year Steve King, Hydrologist Northwest River Forecast Center.
NWS ~ NorthWest River Forecast Center Seasonal Volume Forecasts Using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the 2006 Water Year Kevin Berghoff, Hydrologist.
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