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© Crown copyright Scottish Flood Forecasting Service Pete Buchanan – Met Office Richard Maxey – SEPA SIPR, Dundee, 21 June 2011
© Crown copyright SFFS The ‘Weather Machine ’
© Crown copyright OBSERVATI0NS DETERMINISTIC FORECASTS PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS
© Crown copyright Observations – Monitoring and Validation Lightning Detection Weather Radar Weather Station Satellite Data River Gauges
© Crown copyright Deterministic Forecasts - First ‘Guess’ machine data Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Gives us an initial look at the ‘what’ (type of precipitation, intensity and amount), the ‘where’, the ‘when’ and ‘how much’? Various models, diagnostics and post processing including wave, currents and surge for coastal forecasting Hydrological Models Objective look at the impacts of the weather on river flows and flood risk
© Crown copyright Probabilistic Forecasts – What is the likelihood of it happening? We can objectively measure the probability of critical events occurring by analysing the uncertainty in a particular forecast. When matched with impact, the overall risk can be assessed. As with the deterministic weather data, probabilistic weather data can be fed into the hydrological models to look a range of outcomes for the hydrological forecasts and hence build probabilities of critical river thresholds being exceeded.
© Crown copyright REAL WORLD MACHINE WORLD EXPERT GUIDANCE HYDROLOGIST METEOROLOGIST FLOOD GUIDANCE STATEMENT (FGS) INPUTS ANALYSIS OUTPUT CONSULTATIONIMPROVEMENTSDEVELOPMENTS SEPA FLOOD ADVISORS MET OFFICE PWS ADVISORS SFFS OPERATIONAL TEAMS USERS CASE STUDIES WORKSHOPS STAKEHOLDER MEETINGS TRAINING LIAISON REFINING PRODUCING FEEDBACK TO SCIENTISTS FEEDBACK TO MODELERS REVIEW PRODUCTS AND METHODS INTRODUCE NEW TECHNOLOGY
© Crown copyright SFFS Operational Support -24 HR watch and technical support -Strong and effective partnership between Met Office, SEPA and Stakeholders
© Crown copyright What is likely to happen in the future? Supercomputer Upgrade IBM Power 7 upgrade in 2011 will triple Met Office supercomputer capacity. This will pave the way for significant science and capability developments during 2012 and beyond. Exploiting Uncertainty New, sophisticated high resolution ensemble forecasting systems will improve the forecasting of the probability of a significant event occurring - giving us even more confidence in the Flood Guidance Statement status. ‘Strategic Intervention’ will enable the Chief Forecaster to choose the best data for downstream product generation
© Crown copyright +
Flood vigilance and early alerting Raise early awareness of potential flooding through a 5 day flood forecast Flood Alert stage to warn people of the possibility of flooding
© Crown copyright SEPA Flood Forecasting Hydrologist Normally based in Perth On call Met Office Public Weather Desk Based in Aberdeen 24 hour shift working
© Crown copyright Flood Guidance Statement
© Crown copyright Flood Guidance Statement Flood risk for next 5 days Colour coded Rivers, Coastal, Surface Water Issued daily (or more frequently) Spatial detail depends on lead time Issued to Cat 1 & 2 responders and SEPA
© Crown copyright Days 1 and 2 Flood Alert areas
© Crown copyright Days 3, 4, 5 Strategic Coordination Group areas
© Crown copyright Flood Risk Matrix
© Crown copyright
Daily production SEPA and Met Office telephone discussions Final issue by 1030 365 days a year Afternoon and evening updates when appropriate
© Crown copyright Distribution
© Crown copyright Flood Alerts Early awareness of possible flooding Be vigilant, prepare for flooding Cover the whole of Scotland Medium risk (amber) corresponds to Flood Alert Issued by SFFS via Floodline Warnings Direct
© Crown copyright
Future challenges Scotland-wide gridded model Forecasts “everywhere” Probabilistic forecasting Snow melt Short duration intense rainfall events
SCOTTISH FLOOD FORECASTING SERVICE
© Crown copyright Using ensemble rainfall predictions in a countrywide flood forecasting model in Scotland Why Predict? The value of prediction in hydrological.
© Crown copyright Met Office PWS in support of disaster prevention and mitigation How to improve collaboration and coordination Sarah Davies UK Met Office.
Michael Cranston Flood Forecasting and Warning Manager SIPR Event, Dundee, 21 st June 2011.
Steve Taylor Flood Forecasting Team Leader Anglian Region Environment Agency.
© Crown copyright Met Office Enhanced rainfall services Paul Davies.
Ensemble Forecasting of High-Impact Weather Richard Swinbank with thanks to various, mainly Met Office, colleagues High-Impact Weather THORPEX follow-on.
© Crown copyright Met Office Multi Hazard, Impact Based forecasting and warning services.
Overview of CBRFC Flood Operations Arizona WFOs – May 19, 2011 Kevin Werner, SCH.
National Weather Service Products on the Internet Erik Heden Meteorologist NWS Weather Forecast Office Binghamton, NY Patti Wnek Service Coordination Hydrologist.
Colorado Basin River Forecast Center Water Supply Forecasting Method Michelle Stokes Hydrologist in Charge Colorado Basin River Forecast Center April 28,
National Weather Service - Southeast River Forecast Center Southeast River Forecast Center North Florida Visit July 17-20, 2006 Southeast River Forecast.
Gavin Robbins Senior Hydrometeorologist Flood Forecasting Centre, Exeter, UK Identifying current capabilities and areas of improvement to flood guidance.
Click to edit Master subtitle style SAWS_PARL/CT /06/2012 CLIMATE CHANGE, EARLY WARNING, ADVISORY SERVICES AND RELATED INITIATIVES PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE.
The NOAA Hydrology Program and its requirements for GOES-R Pedro J. Restrepo Senior Scientist Office of Hydrologic Development NOAA’s National Weather.
Page 1© Crown copyright 2006ESWWIII, Royal Library of Belgium, Brussels, Nov 15 th 2006 Forecasting uncertainty: the ensemble solution Mike Keil, Ken Mylne,
© Crown copyright Met Office Hazards – UK perspective 1 st Tech Workshop on Standards for Hazard Monitoring, Databases etc. Graeme Forrester, WMO Geneva,
World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water WMO Operational network and technical capabilities for provision of Meteorological,
Chapter 13 – Weather Analysis and Forecasting. The National Weather Service The National Weather Service (NWS) is responsible for forecasts several times.
Flood Risk Management Helping us help you Gordon Trapmore - Flood & Coastal Risk Manager Devon & Cornwall Kevin Barnes - Flood Resilience Team Leader.
Climate-Change Impacting Hydrologic Forecasting Reggina Cabrera NOAA/National Weather Service Eastern Region, Chief Hydrologic Services Division.
World Meteorological Organization 1 WMOs Activities in Disaster Risk Reduction by Dr. Maryam Golnaraghi Chief Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Programme.
Latin American and Caribbean Flood and Drought Monitor – What it does and does not do Figure showing current system Coarse resolution 25km, daily Satellite.
Flooding: Changes Around the Firth Mark McLaughlin Senior Hydrologist (Flood Map Manager) Scottish Environment Protection Agency Firth of Clyde Forum -
The DEWETRA platform An advanced Early Warning System.
Focus areas of the NWS Missouri/Souris River Floods of May-August 2011 Service Assessment – Per the NOAA and NWS Strategic Plans, gather stakeholder input.
Flood monitoring for ungauged rivers - Across the globe Beatriz Revilla Romero 1, Jutta Thielen 1, Peter Salamon 1 and Tom de Groeve 1, Damien Raynaud.
International Workshop on Flash Flood Forecasting – Costa Rica March 2006 WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION Weather, Climate and Water INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP.
© Crown copyright Met Office Scottish Institute For Policing Research Alan Motion, Business Manager Government Services University of Dundee, 21 st June.
NWS ~ NorthWest River Forecast Center Seasonal Volume Forecasts Using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the 2006 Water Year Kevin Berghoff, Hydrologist.
DRR workshop WMO Commission for Hydrology Geneva June 2013 Ann Calver 1.
June 23, 2011 Kevin Werner NWS Colorado Basin River Forecast Center 1 NOAA / CBRFC Water forecasts and data in support of western water management.
Nile Basin Initiatives (NBI) Easter Nile Technical Regional Office (ENTRO) Flood Preparedness and Early Warning Project (FPEW-I) Flood Forecasting in EN.
Nathalie Voisin 1, Florian Pappenberger 2, Dennis Lettenmaier 1, Roberto Buizza 2, and John Schaake 3 1 University of Washington 2 ECMWF 3 National Weather.
Flash Flood Forecasting as an Element of Multi-Hazard Warning Systems Wolfgang E. Grabs Chief, Water Resources Division WMO.
Physical science findings relevant to climate change adaptation Richard Jones, Met Office Science Fellow/Visiting Professor, School of Geography and Environment.
Exploitation of Ensemble Output (and other operationally cool stuff) at NCEP HPC Peter C. Manousos NCEP HPC Science & Operations Officer
Warning Britain: The National Severe Weather Warning Service in action during three recent strong wind events A Fox, F Ralston & R Sherwin © Crown copyright.
Report of the Q2 Short Range QPF Discussion Group Jon Ahlquist Curtis Marshall John McGinley - lead Dan Petersen D. J. Seo Jean Vieux.
NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner 1 Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov) Vision, mission, & roles.
© UKCIP 2006 UKCIP08 What to expect from the next set of climate change scenarios Richard Lamb UK Climate Impacts Programme.
Adaptations to Climate Change in Africa’s Water Sector: Contributions of the World Meteorological Organization Datius Rutashobya Climate and Water Department.
Storm Surge Modeling and Forecasting LTJG Jeffrey Pereira, NOAA Storm Surge Unit National Hurricane Center NOAA Storm Surge Workshop May 2011 LTJG Jeffrey.
PRESENTS: FORECASTING FOR OPERATIONS AND DESIGN February 16 th 2011 – Aberdeen.
Medium-range Ensemble Streamflow forecast over France F. Rousset-Regimbeau (1), J. Noilhan (2), G. Thirel (2), E. Martin (2) and F. Habets (3) 1 : Direction.
Page 1© Crown copyright 2004 Meteorological Inputs Groundwater Workshop, Birmingham Murray Dale, 4/11/04.
Education and Training Activities in Support to DPM Programme I. K. Al-Atwi Chief, Training Activities Division Education and Training Department-WMO DISASTER.
1 Anglian Water - Sewernet David Singerton, Innovation Projects Manager Evolving an Extreme Rainfall Management system Sewernet proposals 20 th November.
Seasonal Volume Forecasts Using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the 2008 Water Year Steve King, Hydrologist Northwest River Forecast Center.
Regional Flood Awareness Workshop December 3, 2009 Jeff Graschel Service Coordination Hydrologist Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center.
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