Presentation on theme: "Professor John Handley"— Presentation transcript:
1 Professor John Handley Adapting the city: preparing for climate change in Greater ManchesterProfessor John HandleyUniversity of Manchesterwith Jeremy Carter, Gina Cavan, Angela Connelly, Simon Guy and Aleksandra Kazmierczak
2 Adapting the city: preparing for climate change in Greater Manchester John Handley with Jeremy Carter,Gina Cavan, Angela Connelly, Simon Guy and Aleksandra Kazmierczak
3 Presentation outline Global and European climate projections UK Climate Change Risk AssessmentTowards a vulnerability and risk assessment frameworkRecent trends in climate and the climate projections for Greater ManchesterClimate change risk and impact assessmentBuilding adaptive capacityWays forward and priority actions
4 Climate zones shift in a +4°C world Source: New, Liverman and Anderson, 2009
5 Climate change in Europe: high emissions scenario Source: EC Green Paper, 2007
6 UK Climate Change Risk Assessment “Potential climate risks in other parts of the world are thought to be much greater than those directly affecting the UK, but could have a significant indirect impact here. These risks include effects on global health, political stability and international supply chains.”Source: UK CCRA 2012Potential to link to the workshops there with the last three points
7 Climate change adaptation “…adjustments in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities.” (IPCC 2007)EcoCities goal: to provide Greater Manchester with its first blueprint for an integrated climate change adaptation strategy, based on leading scientific research and extensive stakeholder engagement.Distinguish adaptation from mitigationRelates to human systems and natural environmentsMaximising the benefits of ‘positive’ impacts and limiting the impact of negative impactsAdaptation to current and potential future hazardsFocusing on adaptation of human societies – adaptation of ecosystems is also crucial and there is an extensive literature on this, perhaps more comprehensive and thoroughly researched than the issue of human adaptation to climate changeKey elements of the adaptation definitionMal-adaptation – climate relevant decisions taken without regard to impacts on capacity to adapt to impacts in the future – floodplain development, loss of greenspace, weakening of planning legislation – enhancing vulnerability to climate changeBuilding Adaptive Capacity (BAC) involves developing the institutional capacity to respond effectively to climate change. This means compiling the information you need and creating the necessary regulatory, institutional and managerial conditions for adaptation actions to be undertaken. BAC activities include: Gathering and sharing information (undertaking research, collecting and monitoring data, and raising awareness through education and training initiatives); Creating a supportive institutional framework (changing standards, legislation, and best practice guidance, and developing appropriate policies, plans and strategies); Creating supportive social structures (changing internal organisational systems, developing personnel, or other, resources to deliver the adaptation actions, and working in partnership).Degree to which ‘automatic’ adaptation can take place – awareness, political will, resources etcAdaptive capacity – reduced by impacts of climate hazardsImportance of building adaptive capacity to delivering adaptation optionsDelivering Adaptation Actions (DAA) involves taking practical actions to either reduce vulnerability to climate risks, or to exploit positive opportunities. DAA can include: Accepting the impacts, and bearing the losses that result from those risks (eg. manage retreat from sea level rise) Off-setting losses by sharing or spreading the risks or losses (eg. through insurance, coordinated relief efforts) Avoiding or reducing one’s exposure to, climate risks (eg. build new flood defences, or change location) Exploit new opportunities (eg. engage in a new activity, or change practices to take advantage of changing climatic conditions).Living with and bearing losses or risks – accepting that pre-impact systems, behaviours and/or activities no longer can be sustained nor pursued or accepting the loss of assets as they are/will be no longer feasible or worth sustaining. > John Schellnhuber - Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchPreventing effects or reducing exposure to risks – these are associated with either relocating, changing what is exposed, or building climatic resilience with the objective of allowing pre-impact systems, behaviours and activities to continue but introducing measures to reduce exposure to the new/heightened risks. It also includes eliminating exposure to risks by changing to a different use or location. These types of strategies are often adopted where the assets at risk are so valuable that a living with risk strategy is unacceptable. Building resilience, however, does include living with risk. Measures adopted in this latter case involve minimising exposure to risks to a defined acceptable level through reducing the consequences of the resulting impacts and/or facilitating earlier and less costly recovery following exposure. Better preparedness and contingency planning are additional approaches that can prevent effects or reduce exposure to risks.Sharing responsibility for any losses or risks – reducing the financial and social losses or exposure to risk by use of insurance, sharing the associated costs of adaptive responses, and relief efforts (e.g., government, NGO or community relief efforts).Exploiting opportunities – changing use or location to exploit opportunities afforded by changes in climate and increasing capacity to manage opportunities resulting from changing climate. Measures considered under this strategy include introducing a new activity, behaviour, or species (crop) when pre-impact climate constraints no longer exist (or associated risks are no longer a limiting factor) as well as changing behaviour or practices to take advantage of more favourable climate conditions.
8 A framework for climate change risk and vulnerability assessment in urban areas HazardsTrends and ProjectionsHeat wavesDrought and floodsPrecipitationSea level riseAdaptive CapacityInformation and ResourcesInstitutions and GovernanceVulnerabilityCity size and densityTopography% of poor% of GDPA new vulnerability and risk management paradigm is emerging as a useful framework for enabling city decision makers to adapt to climate changeSource: World Bank 2009; UrbanClimate Change Research Network, 2011Urban Climate Change Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Framework. Source: Rosenzweig et al Climate Change and Cities First Assessment Report of the Urban Climate Change Research Network. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, p. xvi
9 Recent changes and trends in Greater Manchester’s climate Annual average daily mean temperature (°C) for andAnnual average daily mean temperature for Greater Manchester,
10 UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) Probabilistic climate change projections on a 25x25km grid based on three GHG emissions scenariosWeather generator produces hourly and daily outputs of climate for a specific location on a 5x5km grid
11 Climate projections for Greater Manchester EcoCities combined both outputs from UKCP09 by creating a climate classification for Greater Manchester on a 5km grid with climate change projections for the high emissions scenario for the 2050sDetailed outputs are also provided for the 5km grid square over central Manchester for 3 scenarios
12 Climate projections for Greater Manchester Climate change projections are shown at three probability levels:10% probability level – unlikely to be less than50% probability level – as likely as not90% probability level – unlikely to be greater than
20 Number of days with heavy rainfall per year in central Manchester
21 Potential climate change impacts for business Risks of business disruption due to floodingInsurance industry: exposure to flood riskHotter summers are projected to increase the risk of overheating in workplacesWarmer temperatures might increase the region’s appeal as a tourist destinationOpportunities to provide adaptation-related products and services at home and abroadAdapted from UK CCRA 2012
22 Potential impacts for health and wellbeing Hotter summers are projected to increase the risk of heat- related death and illnessMilder winters are projected to result in a major reduction in the risk of cold-related death and illnessCasualties due to flooding and the impact of floods on mental well-being are both projected to increaseHealth problems caused by air pollution may increaseAdapted from UK CCRA 2012
23 Potential impacts on buildings and infrastructure Overheating is an increased risk to building occupantsEnergy demands for cooling are likely to increaseEnergy demands for heating are projected to decreaseFlood risks to buildings and key infrastructure increaseDamage to road and rail bridges projected to increaseSewers projected to fill and surcharge more frequentlyWater resources are projected to become scarcerFunctionality of green infrastructure could be impaired by droughtAdapted from UK CCRA 2012
24 EcoCities research at three spatial scales EcoCities carried out research across three levels of scale:Greater Manchester (Example 1)Neighbourhood (Example 2)Building (Example 3)
25 Vulnerability of communities to surface water flooding Greater ManchesterNeighbourhoodBuildingPast events and future trends suggest increasing flood riskAssessment of the current vulnerability of communitiesEmergency services as adaptive capacityFuture economic development of GM will affect the vulnerability of communitiesFuture land use changes will affect the risk of surface floodingHazardsAdaptive CapacityVulnerability
27 Retrofitting office buildings for higher temperatures Greater ManchesterNeighbourhoodBuildingHigh temperatures are on the increase but cold spells still require appropriate measuresWorker productivity is affected by their thermal comfortRetrofitting physical measures is one solutionAdaptive capacity can also be seen in human expectations and behaviourAdaption to climate change needs to address overheating, enhance human comfort, reduce costs and help mitigation actionsHazardsAdaptive CapacityVulnerability
28 EcoCities – Four degrees of preparation EcoCities findings are presented on a website including a spatial portal, document library, related research and additional resources
29 From blueprint to action...? The Greater Manchester Climate Strategy aims to shape Greater Manchester as a place that radically cuts emissions and secures growth whilst minimising vulnerability and increasing resilience to a rapidly changing climate.It will strengthen adaptation functions that operate on a sub- regional / regional scale, e.g. water supply, flood risk management, transport and green infrastructureSource: Greater Manchester Climate Strategy
30 Meeting the adaptation challenge (1) Greater Manchester is potentially well-placed to meet the adaptation challenge because:The frameworks for natural process (watershed and airshed) are broadly congruent with the administrative geography of GM;Source: Greater Manchester Climate Strategy
31 Meeting the adaptation challenge (2) The governance frameworks linking district to district, and districts to business and the wider community are substantially in placeThere is a shared commitment to action on adaptation through the GM Strategy and GM Climate StrategyPartnership working with the University sector is gaining strength, e.g. EcoCities
32 UK Climate Change Risk Assessment Priorities for action within next 5 years:Flood and coastal erosion risk managementSpecific aspects of natural ecosystemsManagement of water resources, particularly in areas with increasing water scarcityOverheating of buildings and other infrastructure in the urban environmentRisks to health, e.g. from heatwaves and floodingEconomic opportunities, especially to develop adaptation products and servicesSource: UK CCRA 2012Potential to link to the workshops there with the last three points
33 Key actions at conurbation level Strategic planningGreen Infrastructure FrameworkStrategic Flood Risk AssessmentBiodiversity Action PlanClimate Vulnerability Assessment?Emergency planningNHS Manchester Heatwave Plan 2010The Greater Manchester Resilience ForumGreater Manchester Risk RegisterEnsuring a diverse set of responses are in place to target all communities?
34 Taking foward the climate change partnership Using EcoCities resources to tackle vulnerability and building adaptive capacity towards Safeguarding CommunitiesInvesting for the long-term in our Buildings and Infrastructure to increase resilience to future extreme weather events and to complement mitigation strategiesKeeping the links open between private, public and voluntary sectors to support the generation of innovative Finance and Investment mechanisms.
35 Many thanks to Bruntwood and the Oglesby Charitable Trust for their generous support of the EcoCities programme.