1. Adapting to Climate Change in Greater Manchester: the EcoCities and GRaBS projects Greater Manchester Planning and Housing Commission 23-6-10 Dr Jeremy Carter : University of Manchester

2. Today’s presentation Adaptation introduction Manchester's climate: recent trends / future projections Manchester’s exposure and vulnerability to climate change EcoCities and GRaBS – supporting adaptation in GM

3. Climate change adaptation Relates to human systems and natural environments Maximising the benefits of ‘positive’ impacts and limiting the impact of negative impacts Adaptation to current and potential future hazards –Building adaptive capacity - institutional capacity to respond effectively to climate change –Delivering adaptation actions – practical actions to reduce exposure / vulnerability

4. Why is climate change adaptation important? Economic competitiveness Human comfort Health and wellbeing Slow progress with emissions reductions Climate change impacts experienced more quickly and intensely than predicted Increasing cost of inaction

5. Hazard: A situation or event with the potential to cause harm (UKCIP, 2003) Vulnerability: Susceptibility to injury or damage from hazards (Cova, 1999) Exposure: Susceptibility of an element to be affected by an hazardous event or situation due to its location. The Risk Triangle Risk: Risk is a combination of the chance of a particular event, with the impact that the event would cause if it occurred (Env. Agency, 2003). Source: Crichton 2001

6. Changes in key climate variables in Northwest England (1961-2006) SpringSummerAutumnWinterAnnual Mean temperature (°C) 1.441.451.071.811.40 Daily max temperature (°C) 1.671.631.131.931.55 Daily min temperature (°C) 1.251.311.031.701.29 Days of air frost-5.9-0.1-3.2-13.1-24.4 Total precipitation (% change)6.3-13.25.643.08.8 Days of rain > 1mm0.4-1.12.96.87.5 Adapted from UKCIP 2008

7. GM Local Climate Impacts Profile Summer storm induced pluvial flooding is now more prevalent that riverine flooding. Storm and heavy rainfall events have increased in the last 10-15 years. Flood is the principal cause of damage to property and infrastructure Human health is most severely affected by wind and heat. Cold events/heavy snow falls are receding but still cause severe disruption when they do occur.

8. CO2 emissions (1990-2007) relative to IPCC scenario projections Source: International Scientific Congress 2009

9. Change in precipitation for NW England Winter mean (medium emissions scenario) Summer mean (medium emissions scenario)

10. Change in mean annual temperature for North West England (medium emissions) Source: UKCIP 2009

11. Climate analogues for Greater Manchester Baseline (1961-90) 2050s Low emissions 2050s High emissions 2080s High emissions TemperatureRainfall (Broadmeadow, 2006) 2050s: Normandy, Loire Valley 2080s: Tuscany, Sardinia, Crete 2050s: Normandy, Loire Valley 2080s: West coast of France, Tuscany

12. EcoCities analysis of the current and future climate of Greater Manchester Analysis of recent/current GM climate using 1km Met Office data Analysis of future climate in GM using the UKCP09 Weather Generator (WG) GM will be divided into climatic zones: homogenous regions in terms of climate, elevation, land use Mapped outputs of changes for the climatic zones, incorporating different probabilities, time periods and emissions scenarios UKCP09 25km grid Weather generator 5km grid

13. Exposure to heat stress: surface temperatures in Greater Manchester

14. Adaptation – reducing exposure Identifying locations likely to be exposed to climate hazards Geographical patterns of exposure – will evolve as the climate changes Protecting features that reduce exposure e.g. wetlands, floodplains, urban green space Managing climate impacts in exposed areas > reducing exposure / living with climate risk

15. Vulnerability of people and communities to flooding 26 indicators of vulnerability were simplified to four underlying factors: 1.Poor health and poverty 2.Transient population and ethnic minorities in high density housing 3.Families with children 4.Elderly population

19. Vulnerability of people and communities to flooding in GM: Analysis of land use

20. Adaptation – reducing vulnerability Climate hazard has less risk if vulnerability is low Addressing indicators of vulnerability > vulnerability assessment Vulnerability based adaptation responses –Built environment responses –Green infrastructure responses –Community-based Reponses Reducing vulnerability to current hazards – essential to addressing future risks

21. EcoCities (The Bruntwood Initiative for Sustainable Cities at the University of Manchester) Adaptation to climate change in urban environments Manchester ‘hub’ with ‘spokes’ to international partner cities Project duration: Phase 1 - June 2008 > November 2011 Planning is underway for Phase 2

22. Eco Cities – aim and objectives “ To create a climate change adaptation ‘blueprint’ for Greater Manchester based on the analysis of climate change scenarios and the proposal of appropriate adaptation responses.” Objective 1 - Impacts Objective 2 - Responses Objective 3 - Engagement Objective 4 - Dissemination

23. Developing an international Eco Cities network Collaborative partnerships are being developed with: The University of Austin, Texas. National University of Singapore. Nagoya University. BRAC University, Dhaka. We will explore shared lessons on strategies for climate change adaptation and resilience

24. Green and Blue Space Adaptation for Urban Areas and Eco Towns ( GRaBS) Aim: “to ensure existing and new mixed use urban development is adapted to the impact of climate change through improving local and regional planning policy particularly via planning to put in place green and blue infrastructure.”

25. The GRaBS partnership Modelled precipitation change (annual) between 1980-1999 and 2080- 2099 (using IPCC SRES A1B scenario) City District of Geuzenveld Slotermeer London Borough of Sutton, TCPA Southampton City Council Province of Genoa Municipality of Kalamaria University of Catania and Etnambiente Klaipeda University Province of Styria City of Malmo Regional Environment Centre for Eastern Europe, Bratislava Northwest Development Agency, University of Manchester

26. GRaBS assessment tool (EU platform)

27. GRaBS assessment tool (project partner platform)

28. EcoCities and GRaBS – potential contribution to adaptation in GM Building adaptive capacity > the EcoCities ‘blueprint’ Supporting spatially targeted adaptation –Detailed climate change scenarios –Visualising vulnerability to climate impacts –The GRaBS assessment tool Working across stakeholder groups and sector themes Adaptation responses

29. Conclusions Each of the 3 elements of climate change risk will evolve over time Adapting to extreme events and gradual shifts in climate patterns Flexible adaptation responses that address and link to multiple issues and agendas Spatially informed climate change adaptation responses

30. Acknowledgements –Professor John Handley –Dr Aleksandra Kazmierczak –Dr Gina Cavan www.manchester.ac.uk/ecocities www.grabs-eu.org