Presentation on theme: "Australia and Ethiopia show similar climatic variability Water storage per capita: 45 m3 Water Storage per capita: 5,000 m3 Ethiopia Australia."— Presentation transcript:
Australia and Ethiopia show similar climatic variability Water storage per capita: 45 m3 Water Storage per capita: 5,000 m3 Ethiopia Australia
USA and Nepal have similar economically feasible hydropower potential Installed capacity: 70,000 MW Installed capacity: 660 MW USA Nepal
CNI SUSTENTABILIDADE 2013 – WATER: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE BRAZILIAN DEVELOPMENT Sofitel Rio de Janeiro October 24, 2013 By B.P.F. Braga President World Water C***ouncil - WWC Benedito Braga President World Water Council
Principle 8 Economic and social development is essential for ensuring a favorable living and working environment for man and for creating conditions on earth that are necessary for the improvement of the quality of life. Principle 9 Environmental deficiencies generated by the conditions of under-development and natural disasters pose grave problems and can best be remedied by accelerated development through the transfer of substantial quantities of financial and technological assistance as a supplement to the domestic effort of the developing countries and such timely assistance as may be required. Declaration of the United Nations Conference on the Human Environment Stockholm 1972
ENVIRONMENTAL CAPITAL (Natural Resources) ECONOMIC CAPITAL (goods and services produced by society) HUMAN CAPITAL ()knowledge and technology) SOCIAL CAPITAL (governance)
Water Security Human Security Socio- economic Security Ecologic Security
DAM: A DIRTY WORD? “DAM OR DAMN”
42% 100 m 3 9% 1500 m 3 Percentage of runoff available due to natural regulation (precipitation ) Storage per capita J.Briscoe – Marrakech 2005
WHAT ABOUT THE DEVELOPING WORLD ?
Africa’s natural legacy: climate variability Extreme climate variability & associated landscape vulnerability mean very high costs to African economies, without major investments in water security unfortunately unaffordable to poor countries.
Rainfall & GDP growth: Ethiopia Rainfall & GDP growth: Zimbabwe Economy-wide impacts
Richest NationsPoorest Nations Losses % GDP Economic Losses % GDPBillion $ Disasters Losses, Total and as Share of GDP, In the Richest and Poorest Nations, 1985 – 99 (world watch 2001 )
Hydropower potential tapped The electricity gap 70% Potential (million Gwh/year) Utilized Utilized in percentage 70% % % 1.6 6% % 3.6
Progress Towards the MDG Drinking Target JMP report 2012
Progress Towards the MDG Sanitation Target JMP report 2012
Does water infrastructure pay off ?
The Bhakra-Beas complex in India 7 million hectares irrigation and 2,800 MW of installed power
SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF BHAKRA DAM Landless workers benefited more that landowners
Irrigation can lift rural poor out of poverty income per capita Average income levels & irrigation intensity in India Net effect: Unirrigated districts (< 10% of cropped area irrigated) - 69% below poverty line Irrigated districts (> 50% of cropped area irrigated) - 26% below poverty line “Poverty is worst Polluter…” Gandhi
Infrastructure and Development Middle East and North Africa Latin America and the Caribbean East Asia and Pacific Sub-Saharan Africa South Asia Europe and Central Asia Infrastructure stocks per capita, 1990 ($, 1985 prices) 100 1,000 10,000 1,00010, Chad Rwanda Mali Zambia Bangladesh Guatemala Paraguay Mauritius Mexico Spain Norway Japan Australia Source: World Development Report, 1994 GDP per capita, 1990 (PPP dollars)
WORLD BANK LENDING FOR HYDROPOWER EMPRESTIMOS EM MILHOES USD
Risks are higher as water is highly political issue...
TelecomunicaçãoGasEnergia Agua e Saneamento Financial Authonomy Investment retur (percent) Source: World Bank, World Development Report 1994, Investing in Infrastructure Gap Fiscal Why is it difficult for the private sector to invest in water supply and sanitation? PPP
New Conglomarates Interested in Water
Motivation for Involvement: Group 1: scarcity is menace for social license for operation - Water users – Coca-Cola, Nestle, Ambev, Barilla
Average Annual World Bank lending for hydropower (in nominal million US $)
Water management with strong public institutions Users’ involvement in the decision- making process Short, medium and long range river basin planning Water permits system Economic instruments (polluter-pays and user-pays) Water infrastructure is no panacea
net impact of water on growth + ‘Water secure’ ‘Water insecure’ + ‘tipping point’ ‘Water Security’ & the ‘Minimum Platform’ ‘Water Security’: when net impact of water on growth is positive ‘Minimum Platform’ of Water Infrastructure & Institutions (river regulation & service delivery) Level of investment needed to achieve ‘Water Security’ (incentives for entrepreneurs) = Investments in water infrastructure & institutions
net impact of water on growth + ‘Water secure’ ‘Water insecure’ + ‘tipping point’ MIP MIP 1 ‘Water Security’ & the ‘Minimum Platform’ Country 1 low variability Country 2 high variability MIP: Minimum Infrastructure & Institutional Platform ‘deeper hole’ higher costs greater gains Source: D.Gray – C. Sadoff, 2005
Likelihood Impact Figure 2: Global Risks Landscape 2012 – WEF Business Leaders
Professional Community Experts Civil Society Users Our Goals Politicians Decision-Makers 1: Make water and its planning, development and management part of the political agenda 2: Make water everybody’s business
river + +dike = Political Order = WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT IS ESSENTIALLY A POLITICAL PROCESS