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Australia and Ethiopia show similar climatic variability Water storage per capita: 45 m3 Water Storage per capita: 5,000 m3 Ethiopia Australia
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USA and Nepal have similar economically feasible hydropower potential Installed capacity: 70,000 MW Installed capacity: 660 MW USA Nepal
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CNI SUSTENTABILIDADE 2013 – WATER: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE BRAZILIAN DEVELOPMENT Sofitel Rio de Janeiro October 24, 2013 By B.P.F. Braga President World Water C***ouncil - WWC Benedito Braga President World Water Council
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Principle 8 Economic and social development is essential for ensuring a favorable living and working environment for man and for creating conditions on earth that are necessary for the improvement of the quality of life. Principle 9 Environmental deficiencies generated by the conditions of under-development and natural disasters pose grave problems and can best be remedied by accelerated development through the transfer of substantial quantities of financial and technological assistance as a supplement to the domestic effort of the developing countries and such timely assistance as may be required. Declaration of the United Nations Conference on the Human Environment Stockholm 1972
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ENVIRONMENTAL CAPITAL (Natural Resources) ECONOMIC CAPITAL (goods and services produced by society) HUMAN CAPITAL ()knowledge and technology) SOCIAL CAPITAL (governance)
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WATER SECURITY
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Water Security Human Security Socio- economic Security Ecologic Security
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DAM: A DIRTY WORD? “DAM OR DAMN”
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42% 100 m 3 9% 1500 m 3 Percentage of runoff available due to natural regulation (precipitation ) Storage per capita J.Briscoe – Marrakech 2005
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WHAT ABOUT THE DEVELOPING WORLD ?
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Africa’s natural legacy: climate variability Extreme climate variability & associated landscape vulnerability mean very high costs to African economies, without major investments in water security unfortunately unaffordable to poor countries.
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Rainfall & GDP growth: Ethiopia 1982-2000 Rainfall & GDP growth: Zimbabwe 1978-1993 Economy-wide impacts
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Richest NationsPoorest Nations Losses % GDP Economic Losses % GDPBillion $ 700 600 400 300 200 100 0 14 12 10 8 6 4 0 Disasters Losses, Total and as Share of GDP, In the Richest and Poorest Nations, 1985 – 99 (world watch 2001 )
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Hydropower potential tapped The electricity gap 70% Potential (million Gwh/year) Utilized Utilized in percentage 70% 1.0 72% 0.8 33% 1.6 6% 1.0 21% 3.6
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Progress Towards the MDG Drinking Target JMP report 2012
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Progress Towards the MDG Sanitation Target JMP report 2012
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Does water infrastructure pay off ?
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The Bhakra-Beas complex in India 7 million hectares irrigation and 2,800 MW of installed power
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SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF BHAKRA DAM Landless workers benefited more that landowners
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Irrigation can lift rural poor out of poverty income per capita Average income levels & irrigation intensity in India Net effect: Unirrigated districts (< 10% of cropped area irrigated) - 69% below poverty line Irrigated districts (> 50% of cropped area irrigated) - 26% below poverty line “Poverty is worst Polluter…” Gandhi
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Infrastructure and Development Middle East and North Africa Latin America and the Caribbean East Asia and Pacific Sub-Saharan Africa South Asia Europe and Central Asia Infrastructure stocks per capita, 1990 ($, 1985 prices) 100 1,000 10,000 1,00010,000100 Chad Rwanda Mali Zambia Bangladesh Guatemala Paraguay Mauritius Mexico Spain Norway Japan Australia Source: World Development Report, 1994 GDP per capita, 1990 (PPP dollars)
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Destroy ecosystems Social disruption due to local population displacement Negative socio-economic impact downstream Green house gases emission High risk investment Critics of Hydropower What are important international NGO’s saying? © WWF Getty Images / Larry Dale Gordon
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WORLD BANK LENDING FOR HYDROPOWER 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 90-9293-9596-9899-0102-04 EMPRESTIMOS EM MILHOES USD
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Risks are higher as water is highly political issue...
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TelecomunicaçãoGasEnergia Agua e Saneamento 100 200 150 50 0 Financial Authonomy Investment retur (percent) Source: World Bank, World Development Report 1994, Investing in Infrastructure 1994. Gap Fiscal Why is it difficult for the private sector to invest in water supply and sanitation? PPP
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New Conglomarates Interested in Water
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Motivation for Involvement: Group 1: scarcity is menace for social license for operation - Water users – Coca-Cola, Nestle, Ambev, Barilla
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Motivation for Involvement: Grupo 2: solutions providers -Biotechnology – Monsanto, Syngenta -Treatment Technology – Dow, GE, Nalco -Information Technology – IBM, Cisco, Toro, Schlumberger
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Some light at the end of the tunnel…
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Average Annual World Bank lending for hydropower (in nominal million US $)
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Water management with strong public institutions Users’ involvement in the decision- making process Short, medium and long range river basin planning Water permits system Economic instruments (polluter-pays and user-pays) Water infrastructure is no panacea
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net impact of water on growth + ‘Water secure’ ‘Water insecure’ + ‘tipping point’ ‘Water Security’ & the ‘Minimum Platform’ ‘Water Security’: when net impact of water on growth is positive ‘Minimum Platform’ of Water Infrastructure & Institutions (river regulation & service delivery) Level of investment needed to achieve ‘Water Security’ (incentives for entrepreneurs) = Investments in water infrastructure & institutions
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net impact of water on growth + ‘Water secure’ ‘Water insecure’ + ‘tipping point’ MIP 2 + + MIP 1 ‘Water Security’ & the ‘Minimum Platform’ Country 1 low variability Country 2 high variability MIP: Minimum Infrastructure & Institutional Platform ‘deeper hole’ higher costs greater gains Source: D.Gray – C. Sadoff, 2005
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Likelihood Impact Figure 2: Global Risks Landscape 2012 – WEF Business Leaders
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Professional Community Experts Civil Society Users Our Goals Politicians Decision-Makers 1: Make water and its planning, development and management part of the political agenda 2: Make water everybody’s business www.worldwatercouncil.org
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river + +dike = Political Order = WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT IS ESSENTIALLY A POLITICAL PROCESS
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www.worldwatercouncil.org THANK YOU FOR YOUR KIND FOR YOUR KINDATTENTION
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