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Jersey Investment Briefings - November 2010 Re-emerging Asia Jonathan Schiessl November 2010.

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Presentation on theme: "Jersey Investment Briefings - November 2010 Re-emerging Asia Jonathan Schiessl November 2010."— Presentation transcript:

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2 Jersey Investment Briefings - November 2010 Re-emerging Asia Jonathan Schiessl November 2010

3 Jersey Investment Briefings - November 2010 Ashburton Investment Models 1. Back to basics…

4 Jersey Investment Briefings - November 2010 First & foremost, it's all about the oft forgotten power of compounding. And for compounding to work we need time. We can use compounding to estimate the time it takes to double your return, by using the rule of 72 - The (re)emerging Asian giants So why should we invest in economies like China & India? % 36 2% EUUSChinaIndia Growth/return 8% 8.5% 9 8.5Years taken to double …..and who said decoupling was impossible?

5 Jersey Investment Briefings - November 2010 Decoupling World Industrial Production comparisons Asia IP vs Developed and Developing markets Asian IP vs World IP and World trade Source: BNP Paribas, CPB

6 Jersey Investment Briefings - November 2010 Ashburton Investment Models 2. And what about valuations…

7 Jersey Investment Briefings - November 2010 So lets look at valuations Source: FactSet; BNP Paribas HK$ per share EPS (RHS) PE (LHS) PE (x) Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul MSCI China – 12 month forward PE vs EPS

8 Jersey Investment Briefings - November 2010 So lets look at valuations PE (x) INR per share EPS (RHS) PE (LHS) Source: FactSet; BNP Paribas MSCI India – 12 month forward PE vs EPS Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul

9 Jersey Investment Briefings - November 2010 Ashburton Investment Models 3. Are indices reflecting these changes?

10 Jersey Investment Briefings - November 2010 Index composition still living in the past Source: IMF, MSCI Estimated world nominal GDP 2010 (Oct 2010) Composition of MCSI AC World Index (Oct 2010)

11 Jersey Investment Briefings - November 2010 Source: MSCI Index composition still living in the past Sectoral composition (%) of MSCI China & MSCI India as at 20 October 2010 MSCI ChinaMSCI India Consumer Staples Consumer Discretionary Energy Financials Healthcare Industrials Technology Materials Telecoms Utilities

12 Jersey Investment Briefings - November 2010 Sectors - the relative game China consumer goods vs. MSCI China - a love-in Source: Bloomberg

13 Jersey Investment Briefings - November 2010 Sectors - the relative game China industrial goods vs. MSCI China - forgotten love Source: Bloomberg

14 Jersey Investment Briefings - November 2010  The move to high end manufacturing is a consequence of demographics, the environment and Hu Jintao’s push for a ‘harmonious society’  The government has decreed several newly emerging strategic industries that will receive active support:  Aviation  Satellites  Rail transport  Offshore engineering  Smart equipment manufacturing  We believe China will ultimately “own” this space… Chinese industrials Creating a future for “Made in China”

15 Jersey Investment Briefings - November 2010 Ashburton Investment Models 4. So how is Ashburton positioning itself?

16 Jersey Investment Briefings - November 2010 Chindia Main hot spots (% NAV) AGRI & SOFT COMMODITIES CLEAN & GREEN CONSUMER & LIFESTYLE HARD & SOFT INFRASTRUCTURE INDUSTRIAL ADVANCEMENT REAL ESTATE TECHNOLOGY FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION OTHER CASH Source: Ashburton

17 Jersey Investment Briefings - November 2010 Current positioning – Chindia Equity Fund Sector breakdown Country breakdown Top ten holdings% NAV Indian Overseas Bank2.56 Chunghwa Telecom2.50 State Bank of India2.44 China Everbright2.33 Tata Consultancy2.30 China State Const’n2.28 SinoTruck2.15 Sany Heavy Eqpt2.13 ITC Ltd2.12 China Const’n Bank BMSCSTCGDCOMCYCEGYFINHCETECUTSCASH FundMSCI Source: Ashburton

18 Jersey Investment Briefings - November 2010 Tom Zambon November 2010 Performance update

19 Jersey Investment Briefings - November 2010 % GrowthYTD1 Year3 Year5 Year Multi Asset Funds Ashburton Replica Sterling Asset Management Sector Average Ashburton Multi Asset Aggressive GBP Sector Average Ashburton Multi Asset Balanced GBP Sector Average Ashburton Multi Asset Cautious GBP Sector Average Equity Funds Ashburton Chindia Equity Fund PC Chindia Benchmark Performance - as at end October 2010 Source: Lipper

20 Jersey Investment Briefings - November 2010 Performance Returns vs risk Replica Sterling asset Management Fund and MSCI World Index since 1992 Replica Asset Management Fund Source: Lipper as at 30 Sept Volatility Return Ashburton's Replica Sterling Asset Management Fund MSCI World

21 Thank you Active Investment Managers

22 DISCLAIMER Ashburton (Jersey) Limited is referred to in this context as ‘Ashburton’. This document does not constitute an offer or solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction in which Ashburton is not authorised or permitted to communicate with potential investors, or to anyone who would be an unlawful recipient, and is only intended for use by original recipients and addressees. The original recipient is solely responsible for any actions in further distributing this document, and should be satisfied in doing so that there is no breach of local legislation or regulation. The information is intended solely for use by Ashburton clients or prospective clients, and should not be reproduced or distributed except via original recipients acting as professional intermediaries. This document is not for distribution in the United States. Prospective investors should inform themselves and if need be take appropriate advice regarding applicable legal, taxation and exchange control regulations in countries of their citizenship, residence or domicile which may be relevant to the acquisition, holding, transfer, redemption or disposal of any investments herein solicited. Any opinions expressed herein are those at the date this material is issued. Data, models and other statistics are sourced from our own records, unless otherwise stated. Ashburton believes that the information contained is from reliable sources, but we do not guarantee the relevance, accuracy or completeness thereof. We caution that the value of investments and the income derived, may fluctuate and it is possible that an investor may incur losses, including a loss of the principal invested. Past performance is not generally indicative of future performance. Investors whose reference currency differs from that in which the underlying assets are invested may be subject to exchange rate movements that alter the value of their investments. Ashburton (Jersey) Limited (Company Registration No ) is a member of the FirstRand Group, is regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission and has its registered office at 17 Hilary Street, St Helier, Jersey JE4 8SJ. Ashburton (Jersey) Limited is registered as a Foreign Investment Services Provider in South Africa in accordance with Section 8 of the Financial Advisory & Intermediary Services Act 2002.


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