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FP London Meeting Glyn Owen, CEO Tom Joy, CIO Martyn Simpson, Head of Advisory Stefan Jordaan, Business Development Mgr James Klempster, Assistant PM 14.

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Presentation on theme: "FP London Meeting Glyn Owen, CEO Tom Joy, CIO Martyn Simpson, Head of Advisory Stefan Jordaan, Business Development Mgr James Klempster, Assistant PM 14."— Presentation transcript:

1 FP London Meeting Glyn Owen, CEO Tom Joy, CIO Martyn Simpson, Head of Advisory Stefan Jordaan, Business Development Mgr James Klempster, Assistant PM 14 th March 2008

2 2 1Strategic Portfolios 2Performance 3Asset Allocation 4Agricultural Commodities

3 3 1Strategic Portfolios 2Performance 3Asset Allocation 4Agricultural Commodities

4 4 Performance – Harmony Funds February 08 USD Balanced USD Growth EUR Balanced GBP Balanced GBP Growth Asian Balanced Asian Growth 1.4%0.7%0.8%1.4%1.8%1.2%1.3% Source: RMB Asset Management All returns are in Local Currency terms

5 5 Performance – Harmony Funds to 29 February 08 Source: RMB Asset Management All returns are in Local Currency terms Returns are net of fees USD Absolute Returns3 Months6 MonthsYTD12 MonthsS InceptionS Inception ( % ann) Harmony Portfolios US Dollar Growth Fund-3.50%-1.96%-2.71%1.18%26.91%9.35% Harmony Portfolios US Dollar Balanced Fund-0.32%1.78%0.09%4.47%26.55%9.23% USD Out/Under Performance3 Months6 MonthsYTD12 MonthsS InceptionS Inception ( % ann) Harmony Portfolios US Dollar Growth Fund0.58%-0.08%0.47%-1.16%3.60%1.17% Harmony Portfolios US Dollar Balanced Fund1.38%0.85%1.20%0.05%4.79%1.57% Harmony US Dollar Funds

6 6 Performance – Harmony Funds to 29 February 08 GBP Absolute Returns3 Months6 MonthsYTD12 MonthsS IncepS Inception ( % ann) Harmony Portfolios Sterling Growth Fund-1.22%-1.25%-1.97%-0.47%24.05%8.42% Harmony Portfolios Sterling Balanced Fund-0.08%0.42%-0.69%0.33%19.82%7.01% GBP Out/Under Performance3 Months6 MonthsYTD12 MonthsS IncepS Inception ( % ann) Harmony Portfolios Sterling Growth Fund1.23%0.11%1.28%-1.43%5.25%1.74% Harmony Portfolios Sterling Balanced Fund0.37%-0.54%0.84%-2.18%3.69%1.25% Harmony Sterling Funds Source: RMB Asset Management All returns are in Local Currency terms Returns are net of fees

7 7 Performance – Harmony Funds to 29 February 08 EUR Absolute Returns3 Months6 MonthsYTD12 MonthsS IncepS Inception ( % ann) Harmony Portfolios Euro Balanced Fund-2.21%-3.86%-1.84%-1.26%13.00%5.19% EUR Out/Under Performance3 Months6 MonthsYTD12 MonthsS IncepS Inception ( % ann) Harmony Portfolios Euro Balanced Fund2.99%2.62%2.72%3.39%5.43%2.12% Harmony European Funds Source: RMB Asset Management All returns are in Local Currency terms Returns are net of fees

8 8 Performance – Harmony Funds to 29 February 08 USD Absolute Returns3 Months6 MonthsYTD12 MonthsS Inception Harmony Asian Growth Portfolio*-1.94%3.81%-1.63%12.26%18.20% Harmony Asian Balanced Portfolio*-1.07%3.10%-0.42%8.57%13.35% USD Out/Under Performance3 Months6 MonthsYTD12 MonthsS Inception Harmony Asian Growth Portfolio0.99%0.76%1.16%-0.84%2.96% Harmony Asian Balanced Portfolio-0.52%-1.13%0.12%-2.44%0.69% Harmony Asian Funds Source: RMB Asset Management All returns are in Local Currency terms Returns are net of fees

9 9 Performance – FP Strategic Portfolios to 29 February 08 Source: RMB Asset Management All returns are in Local Currency terms Returns are gross of fees USD Absolute Returns3 Months6 MonthsYTD12 MonthsS InceptionS Inception ( % ann) FPI USD Alpha Portfolio-4.71%-2.66%-3.99%1.41%28.18%9.76% FPI USD Growth Portfolio-3.09%-0.65%-2.00%2.83%28.96%10.01% FPI USD Balanced Portfolio-0.96%1.78%-0.33%3.80%25.71%8.96% FPI USD Conservative Portfolio0.64%3.62%0.97%5.18%22.18%7.80% USD Out/Under Performance3 Months6 MonthsYTD12 MonthsS InceptionS Inception ( % ann) FPI USD Alpha Portfolio1.13%0.74%1.11%0.17%3.32%1.07% FPI USD Growth Portfolio1.00%1.25%1.21%0.52%5.67%1.84% FPI USD Balanced Portfolio0.76%0.86%0.81%-0.60%3.98%1.31% FPI USD Conservative Portfolio0.77%0.84%0.79%-0.64%2.30%0.76% FP US Dollar Strategic Portfolios – Model Performance

10 10 Performance – FP Strategic Portfolios to 29 February 08 Source: RMB Asset Management All returns are in Local Currency terms Returns are gross of fees EUR Absolute Returns3 Months6 MonthsYTD12 MonthsS IncepS Inception ( % ann) FPI EUR Alpha Portfolio-6.85%-9.44%-5.89%-7.93%18.52%6.58% FPI EUR Growth Portfolio-4.69%-6.23%-3.69%-5.38%19.93%7.05% FPI EUR Balanced Portfolio-2.59%-3.84%-1.72%-4.74%14.31%5.14% FPI EUR Conservative Portfolio-0.88%-1.64%-0.24%-2.68%10.86%3.94% EUR Out/Under Performance3 Months6 MonthsYTD12 MonthsS IncepS Inception ( % ann) FPI EUR Alpha Portfolio1.72%0.40%2.04%-0.91%3.86%1.32% FPI EUR Growth Portfolio1.85%1.87%2.03%0.46%8.09%2.77% FPI EUR Balanced Portfolio2.61%2.64%2.84%-0.09%2.30%0.80% FPI EUR Conservative Portfolio1.25%1.34%1.51%-0.51%2.77%0.98% FP European Strategic Portfolios – Model Performance

11 11 Performance – FP Strategic Portfolios to 31 January 08 Source: RMB Asset Management All returns are in Local Currency terms Returns are gross of fees GBP Absolute Returns3 Months6 MonthsYTD12 MonthsS IncepS Inception ( % ann) FPI GBP Alpha Portfolio-1.94%-2.45%-2.99%-1.44%23.52%8.24% FPI GBP Growth Portfolio-0.91%-0.53%-1.65%0.72%25.54%8.90% FPI GBP Balanced Portfolio0.26%1.05%-0.25%1.42%21.11%7.45% FPI GBP Conservative Portfolio1.77%3.28%0.91%3.07%18.15%6.45% GBP Out/Under Performance3 Months6 MonthsYTD12 MonthsS IncepS Inception ( % ann) FPI GBP Alpha Portfolio2.06%0.18%1.95%-1.53%2.57%0.85% FPI GBP Growth Portfolio1.56%0.86%1.61%-0.22%6.76%2.24% FPI GBP Balanced Portfolio0.73%0.12%1.30%-1.09%5.00%1.68% FPI GBP Conservative Portfolio1.05%0.87%1.44%-0.46%3.63%1.24% FP Sterling Strategic Portfolios – Model Performance

12 12 Performance – FP Strategic Portfolios to 29 February 08 Source: RMB Asset Management All returns are in Local Currency terms Returns are gross of fees USD Absolute Returns3 Months6 MonthsYTD12 MonthsS Inception FPI Asian Alpha Portfolio**-2.12%4.21%-2.33% 5.43% FPI Asian Growth Portfolio*-1.05%4.75%-1.14%13.27%19.27% FPI Asian Balanced Portfolio*0.65%4.90%0.37%10.46%15.32% FPI India Growth Portfolio***0.20%11.27%-3.62%22.22%23.42% USD Out/Under Performance3 Months6 MonthsYTD12 MonthsS Inception FPI Asian Alpha Portfolio2.99%1.96%2.44% -1.72% FPI Asian Growth Portfolio1.87%1.70%1.64%0.17%4.03% FPI Asian Balanced Portfolio1.20%0.66%0.91%-0.56%2.66% FPI India Growth Portfolio3.36%3.07%1.65%2.58%3.70% FP Asian Strategic Portfolios – Model Performance

13 13 Performance – FP Strategic Portfolios to 29 February 08 Source: RMB Asset Management All returns are in Local Currency terms Returns are gross of fees JPY Absolute Returns3 Months6 MonthsYTD12 MonthsS IncepS Inception ( % ann) FPI JPY Alpha Portfolio-11.72%-12.91%-9.35%-16.35%17.32%6.17% FPI JPY Growth Portfolio-10.91%-11.71%-8.29%-15.14%18.48%6.57% FPI JPY Balanced Portfolio-8.55%-9.89%-6.95%-14.68%10.94%3.97% FPI JPY Conservative Portfolio-5.94%-6.13%-4.68%-8.86%13.05%4.71% JPY Out/Under Performance3 Months6 MonthsYTD12 MonthsS IncepS Inception ( % ann) FPI JPY Alpha Portfolio-1.95%-1.56%-1.08%-3.39%0.78%0.26% FPI JPY Growth Portfolio-3.04%-2.31%-1.77%-4.87%4.15%1.41% FPI JPY Balanced Portfolio-3.26%-3.77%-2.38%-8.30%-0.65%-0.23% FPI JPY Conservative Portfolio-2.47%-2.27%-1.58%-4.82%3.83%1.34% FP Japanese Yen Strategic Portfolios – Model Performance

14 14 Performance – FP Strategic Portfolios to 29 February 08 Source: RMB Asset Management All returns are in Local Currency terms Returns are gross of fees AUD Absolute Returns3 Months6 MonthsYTD12 MonthsS IncepS Inception ( % ann) FPI AUD Alpha Portfolio-6.54%-3.94%-5.55%-0.74%29.77%10.27% FPI AUD Growth Portfolio-5.94%-3.88%-5.11%-1.76%26.71%9.28% FPI AUD Balanced Portfolio-3.59%-1.93%-2.71%-2.31%20.71%7.31% FPI AUD Conservative Portfolio-2.23%-0.54%-1.57%-0.82%17.66%6.29% AUD Out/Under Performance3 Months6 MonthsYTD12 MonthsS IncepS Inception ( % ann) FPI AUD Alpha Portfolio3.46%5.37%3.17%4.12%7.10%2.30% FPI AUD Growth Portfolio-0.09%-0.80%1.48%0.26%7.84%2.59% FPI AUD Balanced Portfolio-1.12%-0.91%1.54%-1.40%5.98%2.03% FPI AUD Conservative Portfolio-1.66%-0.99%1.05%-1.32%4.58%1.57% FP Australian Dollar Strategic Portfolios – Model Performance

15 15 Performance Comparison: FP SP vs. Harmony This provides a comparison of the Wrap Portfolio Models and corresponding IC cells on a like-for-like fee perspective Source: RMB Asset Management All returns are in Local Currency terms All returns are net of fees USD Absolute Returns3 Months6 MonthsYTD12 Months FPI USD Growth Portfolio-3.27%-1.01%-2.12%2.26% FPI USD Balanced Portfolio-1.15%1.40%-0.45%3.22% USD Absolute Returns3 Months6 MonthsYTD12 Months Harmony Portfolios US Dollar Growth Fund-3.50%-1.96%-2.71%1.18% Harmony Portfolios US Dollar Balanced Fund-0.31%1.79%0.09%4.47% USD Relative Returns3 Months6 MonthsYTD12 Months US Dollar Growth Portfolio Out Performance0.23%0.95%0.60%1.09% US Dollar Balanced Portfolio Out Performance-0.83%-0.39%-0.55%-1.25% US Dollar Strategies – to 29 February 2008

16 16 Performance Comparison: FP SP vs. Harmony GBP Absolute Returns3 Months6 MonthsYTD12 Months FPI GBP Growth Portfolio-1.10%-0.90%-1.77%0.22% FPI GBP Balanced Portfolio0.08%0.68%-0.38%0.91% GBP Absolute Returns3 Months6 MonthsYTD12 Months Harmony Portfolios Sterling Growth Fund-1.22%-1.25%-1.97%-0.47% Harmony Portfolios Sterling Balanced Fund-0.08%0.42%-0.69%0.33% GBP Relative Returns3 Months6 MonthsYTD12 Months Sterling Growth Portfolio Out Performance0.12%0.35%0.19%0.69% Sterling Balanced Portfolio Out Performance0.16%0.26%0.32%0.58% This provides a comparison of the Wrap Portfolio Models and corresponding IC cells on a like-for-like fee perspective Source: RMB Asset Management All returns are in Local Currency terms All returns are net of fees Sterling Strategies – to 29 February 2008

17 17 Performance Comparison: FP SP vs. Harmony EUR Absolute Returns3 Months6 MonthsYTD12 Months FPI EUR Balanced Portfolio-2.77%-4.20%-1.84%-5.27% EUR Absolute Returns3 Months6 MonthsYTD12 Months Harmony Portfolios Euro Balanced Fund-2.21%-3.86%-1.84%-1.26% EUR Relative Returns3 Months6 MonthsYTD12 Months Euro Balanced Portfolio Out Performance-0.56%-0.34%0.00%-4.02% Euro Strategies – to 29 February 2008 This provides a comparison of the Wrap Portfolio Models and corresponding IC cells on a like-for-like fee perspective Source: RMB Asset Management All returns are in Local Currency terms All returns are net of fees

18 18 Performance Comparison: FP SP vs. Harmony USD Absolute Returns3 Months6 MonthsYTD12 Months FPI Asian Growth Portfolio-1.24%4.55%-1.27%13.06% FPI Asian Balanced Portfolio0.46%4.70%0.25%10.25% USD Absolute Returns3 Months6 MonthsYTD12 Months Harmony Asian Growth Portfolio-1.94%3.81%-1.63%12.26% Harmony Asian Balanced Portfolio-1.07%3.10%-0.42%8.57% GBP Relative Returns3 Months6 MonthsYTD12 Months Sterling Growth Portfolio Out Performance0.70%0.74%0.36%0.80% Sterling Balanced Portfolio Out Performance1.53%1.60%0.67%1.68% This provides a comparison of the Wrap Portfolio Models and corresponding IC cells on a like-for-like fee perspective Source: RMB Asset Management All returns are in Local Currency terms All returns are net of fees Asian Strategies – to 29 February 2008

19 19 1Strategic Portfolios 2Performance 3Asset Allocation 4Agricultural Commodities

20 20 “As long as the music is playing, you have got to get up and dance. We’re still dancing” Chuck Prince, CEO Citigroup: 9 th July 2007 Mid 2007

21 21 “It’s only when the lights come on that you find out who you are dancing with” Warren Buffet But……

22 22 Source: Financial Times, Bloomberg. 14 th February What went wrong? Asset write downs since Jan 07

23 23 Source: RMB Asset Management, December Dec 91Dec 92Dec 93Dec 94Dec 95Dec 96Dec 97Dec 98Dec 99Dec 00Dec 01Dec 02Dec 03Dec 04Dec 05Dec 06Dec 07 Annual Inflow (USD bn) Net Foreign Purchases of US Corporate Bonds Net Foreign Purchases of US Equity Credit was the hot asset

24 24 Source: Bloomberg, February Credit spreads

25 25 Source: Bloomberg, February The unloved ones

26 26 Source: Bloomberg. All returns in USD terms. Performance of international equities

27 27 Source: Bloomberg, February Jan 07Feb 07Mar 07Apr 07May 07Jun 07Jul 07Aug 07Oct 07Nov 07Dec 07Jan 08Feb 08 Hard CommoditiesSoft Commodities Global BondsGlobal Equities Asset class performance

28 28 Source: MSCI, Bloomberg. 18th February Market performance December 2006 to present

29 29 Source: RMB Asset Management, Style Research. December Style returns – 12 months to December 2007

30 30  Steepest monthly decline since 1972 to 1975  Sub-prime delinquencies continue to rise with many more resets on the horizon. Overall delinquencies also up sharply Source: Bloomberg, February 2008 US recession?

31 31 Source: Bloomberg, February 2008 Housing market – still unwanted

32 32 Source: Bloomberg. Data to 31st January 2008 and 31st December 2007 for US government 2Y yield chart US economic indicators

33 33 Solid lines – CPI; Broken line – Food CPI Source: Bloomberg, February 2008 Threat of inflation Latin America and China – CPI and Food CPI

34 34 Source: Bloomberg, February 2008 Valuation support: Government Bond yields have fallen sharply

35 35 Source: Bloomberg, Style Research Global Equity valuations – no valuation bubble

36 36 Source: Citibank, February 2008 Global equity market ratings

37 37 Source: Style Research Source: Bloomberg, Style Research, February 2008 Decoupling? Global Emerging trading at a premium

38 38  US consistently underperformed for last five years  No repeat of Japan in the 1990s  No longer overvalued relative to ROW Source: LIPPER Hindsight, January 2008 MSCI US relative to MSCI World

39 39 Source: Corporate Reports, Empirical Research, Pzena. Data from 1952 to 2007 Price to book: Commodities and Financials

40 40  Correlation between agriculture and other asset classes is low  Direct inflation hedge  Agriculture yet to experience the significant capital growth of other commodities  Favourable supply – demand balance Rogers Agriculture Index Gold Spot Price WTI Crude Oil Rogers Commodity Index Source: Bloomberg, February 2008 Agriculture in a diversified portfolio

41 41  Schroder Agriculture Commodity Fund a pure play on this trend Source: Bloomberg, February 2008 Agricultural commodity prices rising

42 42 Source: Bloomberg, February S&P 500 corrections (1950 to date, chart shows S&P 500 Index level) Market correction examples

43 43 Source: Bloomberg. Data to 18 th February Currency movements vs US Dollar Benefits of diversification

44 44  Deleveraging and unwinding of credit bubble has further to run  Contraction and re-pricing of credit causing consumer recession  Further cuts in interest rates – but tempered by inflation concerns  Profits falling – but so far only in financials, building and consumer sectors  Government bonds offer little value: safe haven status  Credit bonds becoming attractive – but still too early  Equity valuations low – and supported by falling short and long term interest rates  Improving conditions as we move into H2 Conclusion: markets

45 45  High level of uncertainty persists continuing volatility  Vital to retain broad diversification across asset classes  Remain defensive – but equity valuations are not stretched and recovery in markets is sudden and rapid  Overweight agricultural commodities and emerging market currencies  Underweight small cap vs. large cap  Decoupling unlikely to continuemarket leadership to change  US becoming relatively attractive – valuations have fallen and US has long history of reinventing itself  In currencies, Sterling vulnerable  International attractive relative to South Africa – the lights have not gone out (YET!) Conclusion: asset classes

46 46 1Strategic Portfolios 2Performance 3Asset Allocation 4Agricultural Commodities

47 47 Agricultural Commodities AdvantagesDisadvantages SchroderBroadly diversified Long only Actively managed Uses Futures Closed CastlestoneBroadly diversified Long only Actively managed Uses Futures TBA ETF Securities Ltd Reasonable Diversification Long only Quasi-ETF strategy Elements RICI Total Return Reasonable Diversification Long only ETF strategy ParworldReasonable Diversification Long only ETF strategy GlobalAgriCap/ Robeco/ DWS Equity Funds

48

49 49 Important Notes RMB Asset Management is the trading name for RMB Asset Management International Limited. This document does not constitute an offer or solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction in which it is not authorised or permitted, or to anyone who would be an unlawful recipient, and is only intended for use by original recipients and addressees. The original recipient is solely responsible for any actions in further distributing this document, and should be satisfied in doing so that there is no breach of local legislation or regulation. The information is intended solely for use by our clients or prospective clients, and should not be reproduced or distributed except via original recipients acting as professional intermediaries. This document is not for distribution in the United States. Prospective investors should inform themselves and if need be take appropriate advice regarding applicable legal, taxation and exchange control regulations in countries of their citizenship, residence or domicile which may be relevant to the acquisition, holding, transfer, redemption or disposal of any investments herein solicited. Any opinions expressed herein are those at the date this material is issued. Data, models and other statistics are sourced from our own records, unless otherwise stated herein. We believe that the information contained is from reliable sources, but we do not guarantee the relevance, accuracy or completeness thereof. Unless provided under UK law, RMB Asset Management does not accept liability for irrelevant, inaccurate or incomplete information contained, or for the correctness of opinions expressed. We caution that the value of investments in discretionary accounts, and the income derived, may fluctuate and it is possible that an investor may incur losses, including a loss of the principal invested. Past performance is not generally indicative of future performance. Investors whose reference currency differs from that in which the underlying assets are invested may be subject to exchange rate movements that alter the value of their investments. Important notes

50 50 Important Notes (Continued) Our investment mandates in alternative strategies and hedge funds permit us to invest in unregulated funds that may be highly volatile. Although alternative strategies funds will seek to follow a wide diversification policy, these funds may be subject to sudden and/or large falls in value. The illiquid nature of the underlying funds is such that alternative strategies funds deal infrequently and require longer notice periods for redemptions. These Investments are therefore not readily realisable. If an alternative strategies fund fails to perform, it may not be possible to realise the investment without further loss in value. These unregulated funds may engage in the short selling of securities or may use a greater degree of gearing than is permitted for regulated funds (including the ability to borrow for a leverage strategy). A relatively small price movement may result in a disproportionately large movement in the investment value. The purpose of gearing is to achieve higher returns associated with larger investment exposures, but has concomitant exposure to loss if positive performance is not achieved. Reliable information about the value of an investment in an alternative strategies fund may not be available (other than at the fund’s infrequent valuation points). Under our multi-management arrangements, we selectively appoint underlying sub-investment managers and funds to actively manage underlying asset holdings in the pursuit of achieving mandated performance objectives. Annual investment management fees are payable both to the multimanager and the manager of the underlying assets at rates contained in the offering documents of the relevant portfolios (and may involve performance fees where expressly indicated therein). RMB Asset Management International Limited (Company Registration No ) is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority and is a member of the FirstRand Group, and has its registered office at Two London Bridge, London SE1 9RA. © RMB Asset Management International Limited 2008 Important notes (continued)


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