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Investment Strategy Perspective The Post Election Outlook Hope and Change or More of the Same? November 2012.

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Presentation on theme: "Investment Strategy Perspective The Post Election Outlook Hope and Change or More of the Same? November 2012."— Presentation transcript:

1 Investment Strategy Perspective The Post Election Outlook Hope and Change or More of the Same? November 2012

2 “Elections Have Consequences” – Barack Obama 10/31 Status Quo Ante: Divided Government Is 51% / 49% a Mandate? Compromise vs. Confrontation in Washington Fiscal Cliff Is the Near-Term Challenge Debt and Deficits Are the Long-Term Challenge Safe to Say: Taxes Are Going Up – Higher Rates vs. Broader Base Safe to Say: Regulation is Going Up – Industry Winners and Losers Monetary Policy: Easy Does It Whither the Dollar? 2

3 Unemployment RateConsumer Price Inflation Unemployment and Inflation: Which is the Lesser Evil? 10/31 % 3

4 Composite PMI 10/31 Consumer Sentiment 10/31 Current Conditions: Are Business and Consumers on the Same Page? 4

5 Housing StartsMedian Existing Home Prices U.S. Housing Market: The Worst May Be Over, But a Long Way to Go 9/30 Thousands$ Thousands 5

6 U.S. Bank Deposits vs. LendingCorporate Cash Money: Not in Motion 12/31 9/30 $ Trillion 6

7 Average Hourly EarningsReal Median Family Income Here’s the Real Problem: Stagnant Income Growth 12/31 % $ 7

8 8 S&P 500 Operating Earnings Stock Market Fundamentals: Earnings Up, P/E Ratios Not P/E Ratio 10/31 Quarterly High/Low (Assuming Perfect EPS Foresight)

9 Price/Earnings Ratio vs. Price/Yield RatiosEarnings Yield vs. Bond Yields Extreme Valuations 10/31 9 % x

10 10 Year Treasury Yield Net Inflows to Fixed Income Mutual Funds (Monthly)Net Inflows to Equity Mutual Funds (Monthly) S&P 500 Operating Earnings 9/30 Trailing 4 Quarters $ Billions % Curiouser and Curiouser: What Are Individual Investors Thinking? 10

11 Pension Funds (Estimated)Endowments and Foundations What is the “Smart Money” Thinking? 12/314/30 11

12 Asset Allocation Highmount Bird in Hand Strategy 12

13 Investment Performance Highmount Bird in Hand Strategy 13 The Highmount Bird In Hand Portfolio is a model portfolio and the related performance is hypothetical. Performance is time-weighted total rate of return. All returns are gross of fees. The customary Highmount fee for this strategy is 1% per annum. Inception Date is 9/30/2010. *Benchmark is 33% 3-month Treasury Bill/33% Barclays Aggregate Bond Index/33%S&P500.

14 14 This presentation is made by Highmount Capital LLC and may not be copied, altered, offered, sold or otherwise distributed to any other person by any recipient without the consent of Highmount Capital LLC. This document is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any security, commodity or investment services. It is expressly not intended for persons who, due to their nationality or place of residence, are not permitted access to such information under local law. Any views or opinions presented herein are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of Higmount Capital LLC. The information included in this discussion is taken from sources that the author and Highmount Capital LLC believe to be reliable but it cannot assume responsibility for the quality, correctness, timeliness or completeness of the information contained in this document. Notwithstanding, the author and Highmount Capital LLC do not guarantee the accuracy of this data, nor does it predict future performance. Readers should not infer or assume that any securities, sectors or markets described were or will be profitable or are appropriate to meet the objectives, situation or needs of a particular individual or family, as the implementation of any financial strategy should only be made after consultation with your attorney, tax adviser and investment adviser. Nothing contained in this report constitutes tax advice, and any discussion of tax matters is not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used, to avoid tax penalties and may not be used in the promotion, marketing or recommendation of any entity, investment plan or arrangement.

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