Presentation on theme: "A member of the FirstRand Group 2010 - a bumpy road ahead? Speakers Tristan Hanson Jonathan Schiessl Craig Farley Investment Presentation Jersey – February."— Presentation transcript:
A member of the FirstRand Group 2010 - a bumpy road ahead? Speakers Tristan Hanson Jonathan Schiessl Craig Farley Investment Presentation Jersey – February 2010
A member of the FirstRand Group Climate change Tristan Hanson Crisis, Recovery…What Next? Investing in an Uncertain World May 2010
A member of the FirstRand Group A stronger than anticipated recovery Source: IMF IMF growth forecasts: 2010 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 EUJapanUSAAsian NICs BrazilIndiaChina % Apr '09 forecast Apr '10 forecast
A member of the FirstRand Group Agenda Three Issues: Sovereign debt in developed countries Is China’s growth sustainable? US unemployment & consumer spending Implications for asset allocation
A member of the FirstRand Group Why Greece? Loss of credibility Persistent budget deficits Unsustainable debt dynamics debt outstanding size of budget deficit demography
A member of the FirstRand Group Greek finances: worst of a bad bunch Budget Surplus/Deficit (% of GDP) Avg: 2006-0820092010 Germany-0.5-3.3-5.0 Greece-5.5-13.6-9.3 Ireland-1.4-14.3-11.7 Italy-2.5-5.3 Portugal-3.1-9.4-8.5 Spain-0.1-11.2-9.8 UK-3.5-11.5-12.0 US-2.1-9.9-9.4 Source: EC, CBO, IMF, Barclays Capital Gross Public Debt (% of GDP) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 US UK Germany France Greece Spain Italy Ireland Portugal 2007 2010 48 44 6564 95 36 103 25 64 76 70 78 85 125 66 117 75 84
A member of the FirstRand Group Euro periphery compared Source: Bloomberg Debt (€m)Credit Rating % debt externalDebt Issuance (€bn) S&PFitch20102011 Greece273BB+BBB-755540 Portugal126A-AA-7221 Ireland105AAAA-862524 Spain560AAAAA6097122 Italy1,761A+ 55250220
A member of the FirstRand Group Greek contagion: how serious is it? Source: Bloomberg European 10yr bond yields May'10Change YTD (bps) Germany2.9-53 Netherlands3.1-50 France3.2-44 Italy4.1-7 Spain4.220 Ireland5.673 Portugal5.8174 Greece10.2440
A member of the FirstRand Group No contagion to core of Euro-area Source: Bloomberg German & French 10yr bond yields 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 Apr-09Jul-09Oct-09Jan-10Apr-10 Germany France
A member of the FirstRand Group Scepticism merited when price drives opinion Oct. 16 (Bloomberg) – “The dollar will extend its drop versus the euro over the next two to five years, falling as much as 20% to an all-time low under a widening budget deficit, Harvard University’s Professor Niall Ferguson said.” Source: Bloomberg US dollar strength 1.25 1.30 1.35 1.40 1.45 1.50 1.55 May-09Aug-09Nov-09Feb-10May-10 €/$
A member of the FirstRand Group Conclusion: “nothing to fear but fear itself?” Europe’s Achilles heel: one currency, 16 finance ministers EU/IMF deal should ringfence Greece into 2012 Spain & Italy: too big to save = too big to fail? Austerity packages are deflationary Printing money can eliminate default risk in low inflation world (US, UK) Behavioural Perspective: the legacy of the 2008 financial crisis is still with us…are we now preconditioned to fear the worst in any shock/contagion event?
A member of the FirstRand Group China: stimulus-led recovery Source: World Bank
A member of the FirstRand Group Chinese property: bubble territory? Source: World Bank
A member of the FirstRand Group China’s growth potential remains huge Source: PWT, WB GDP per capita (US$, PPP terms) Brazil10,080 South Africa9,790 Colombia8,430 Ecuador7,780 Jamaica7,370 Namibia6,250 China6,010 Sri Lanka4,460 India2,930 Sierra Leone770 GDP per capita relative to the USA PPP terms 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 19521957196219671972 1977198219871992199720022007 % Japan Taiwan Korea China
A member of the FirstRand Group China: industrial profitability has improved Source: Macquarie
A member of the FirstRand Group US household balance sheet Source: Federal Reserve, Bloomberg 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 1952195719621967197219771982198719921997 20022007 % of disposable income Assets Net Worth Debt
A member of the FirstRand Group Debt remains high; service cost declining Source: Federal Reserve 9 10 11 12 13 14 Mar-80Mar-83Mar-86Mar-89 Mar-92Mar-95Mar-98Mar-01Mar-04Mar-07 % of disposable income Debt Service Ratio
A member of the FirstRand Group US: job losses vs GDP declines Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Capital Declines in US GDP & Employment compared -7.0% -6.0% -5.0% -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% Avg: 1950-20002001/022008/09 GDP Employment
A member of the FirstRand Group Replica Asset Management: asset allocation Source: Ashburton Replica Asset Management Asset Allocation (28/04/10) 33 16 10 5 3 2 11 5 15 Equities* Govt/quasi-govt Inflation-protected DM - IG corporate DM - High Yield corporate EM - IG corporate EM - govt/quasi-govt FRNs Effective Cash *net of put options DM=developed markets EM=emerging markets Currency Weightings (%) – 30/04/10 £$€ EU--72 US-905 UK95-8 JPN--- ASIA4914 Other111
A member of the FirstRand Group Replica Asset Management: performance Source: Lipper Ashburton Replica Sterling Asset Management MSCI World TR LC Percentage Growth Total Return, Tax Default, In LC 3 Years From 30/03/2007 To 31/03/2010 Percentage Growth -50 -45 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 04/200707/200710/200701/200804/200807/200810/200801/200904/200907/200910/200901/2010
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