Presentation on theme: "Ashburton Investment Models Richard Robinson Europe going global June 2009."— Presentation transcript:
Ashburton Investment Models Richard Robinson Europe going global June 2009
Investment Briefing June 2009 Short term Stock selection Quant Screen (Valuation & Momentum) Bottom up (CROCI, P/NAV, DCF) Technical (RSI, volume, MACD) Company valuation Analyst Input Meet management (where possible) Inventories, sector indicators, etc. Qualitative research Long term Mid term Death of Cheap Oil Supply Oil Services Oil E&P Integrated Alt. Energy Other ppppppppppppp ppppppppppppp ppppppppppppp De- leveraging consumer Gov. Stimuli ppp Internal Feedback + Analyst Feedback + Independent + General Research Investment Process Div. Infrast Shipping General Multiplier Metals & Mining Rail Gov. Efficiency & Tax Revenue Protectionism Trade down Resilient Demand Food Shortages Financials Early Cyclicals Bottom Up
Investment Briefing June 2009 De-leveraging consumer Government Stimuli Irving Fisher: “When indebtedness occurs, fiscal & monetary policy become impotent” The Monetarist View The quantity theory of money: A fine balance = Nom. GDP Money Supply X The Money Multiplier Velocity John Meynard Keynes: “Prime the pump” Div. Infrastructure Rail Outsourcing & Efficiency drives General Multiplier Resilient Demand ‘Trade down’ Cyclicals Food Shortages
Investment Briefing June 2009 Gov. Stimulus InfrastructureRail Metals + Mining Shipping Defence & Protectionism Gov. Efficiency & Tax Revenue Long Term - RAIL China Monthly Steel Products Output (Heavy Steel Rail) 1. Ageing transport infrastructure; US need to spend EUR100bn+ Russia’s last railway program 1916 - €380bn to be spent by 2030. 2. Improve efficiency of existing networks; Introduction of European Rail Traffic Management 3. China looks to increase capacity, rural connections $250bn infrastructure programme to go towards transport infrastructure Rail (10,000 km/pa.) Supply Demand Crossovers Bulk of sales government driven as most rail operators state-owned Expected cumulative growth in Rail from 2009-2010E of 10% Decades of chronic underinvestment.
Investment Briefing June 2009 Gov. Stimulus InfrastructureRail Metals + Mining Shipping Defence & Protectionism Gov. Efficiency & Tax Revenue 2 yrs- traded GOGL over 25 times Return of +581% v -14% (buy and hold) Beaching of the Pasha in June 2007 Supply Tightens Bad weather + low inventories+ rumours of ship owners imminent bankruptcy – reduces fleet size by 15%. Day Rates double low inventories+ strong demand from China …Tight supply & strong demand Constrained Supply when we owned and stock rose when we owned and stock fell Short Term - SHIPPING Supply Demand Crossovers
Investment Briefing June 2009 Chile last year produced 30% of the worlds salmon Disease (ISA): Chilean Salmon Production has been decimated (-60%). Global Production (Supply) falling 9% Demand increasing by 5-8%. Out of the 230k tonnes lost to the US (from Chile, Norway are increasing exports by an expected 60k tonnes a year. Supply Demand Crossovers FOOD SHORTAGES – decreasing supply Velocity Of Money Resilient Demand Trade Down Food Shortages
Investment Briefing June 2009 Why has oil turned higher? Macro Turnaround Risk appetite increasing (Dollar weakness) Leading to a return of Financial Speculation Fundamentals (Supply / Demand) Significant OPEC cuts (although compliance has weakened) Increasing Chinese imports - Chinese Build in Strategic Reserves Death of Cheap Oil Supply IntegratedAlt Energy Oil E &P Oil Services Oil Prices – Why the recovery? Bear Case Demand has collapsed US (& Global) Inventories are high. Consequently Oil price collapsed OPEC CUTS 68% 89%
Investment Briefing June 2009 Chinese Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) Imports have spiked in March and April Completion of phase 1 of SPR Can not keep oil below ground (wrong geology-not salt) Had to build land based storage: Aoshan Dalian, Huangdao, Zhenhai Other support from: Further non-OPEC supply shut-ins A positive driving season Oil Prices – Why the recovery? Death of Cheap Oil Supply IntegratedAlt Energy Oil E &P Oil Services
Investment Briefing June 2009 Energy sector provides defensive and cyclical opportunities Source: Ashburton Source: Thomson Financial Datastream, MFG Portfolio allocation Death of Cheap Oil Supply (as at 29.05.2009) Death of Cheap Oil Supply, 17.7 Alternative Energy, 1.43 Integrated, 5.80 Oil E&P, 4.91 Oil Services, 5.60 Death of Cheap Oil Supply IntegratedAlt Energy Oil E &P Oil Services
Investment Briefing June 2009 Government Stimuli Div. Infrastructure Rail Gov. efficiency & Tax revenue General Multiplier Shipping Metals, Mining & Materials Defence & Protectionism Government Stimuli Div. Infrastructure Rail Gov. efficiency & Tax revenue General Multiplier Shipping Metals, Mining & Materials Defence & Protectionism Fund Overview A fine balance = Nom. GDP Money Supply X The Money Multiplier De-leveraging consumer Resilient Demand ‘Trade down’ Cyclicals Food Requirements De-leveraging consumer Resilient Demand ‘Trade down’ Cyclicals Food Shortages Velocity
Investment Briefing June 2009 De-leveraging consumer De-leveraging consumer 19% Resilient Demand ‘Trade down’ Cyclicals Food Shortages Cyclical Sector (12%) CYCLICALDEFENSIVE 25% 43% Government Stimuli 31% Div. Infrastructure Rail Gov. efficiency & Tax revenue General Multiplier Shipping Metals, Mining & Materials Defence & Protectionism Money Supply Velocity Fund Overview 31% 19% Oil Services + E&P & Alt 12% Integrated Oil 6% Death of Cheap Oil Supply 18% Fin’s + Early Cyclicals 25% Bottom up 4% Other 29% 72% 25%
Investment Briefing June 2009 European Fund Sector weightings (as at 29.05.2009) Source: Ashburton (Jersey) Limited, MSCI. Date: 29.05.2009 Ashburton European Equity Fund MSCI Europe 0 5 10 15 20 25 INDUSTRIALS ENERGY INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY FINANCIALS MATERIALS TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY HEALTH CARE CONSUMER STAPLES UTILITIES Underweight
Investment Briefing June 2009 Top Quartile YTD, 3, 5 and 10 years Ranked No.2 over 5 years and No. 9 over 10 years Ashburton European Equity Fund A top performer YTD3 yr5 yr10 yr %RankQtl%RankQtl%RankQtl%RankQtl Ashburton European Equity Fund 11.151111-24.3673138.652113.5491 MSCI Europe 4.74525-34.97362 - 13.65 293-32.26113 Out performance 6.4110.6152.345.80
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