1. The Future of Technology IEEE Fellows Web-Based Study Prepared for: IEEE Spectrum By: The Response Center November 2003

2. 2 Table of contents Page Background and Objectives3 Methodology4 Notes on the Report5 Study Findings6 The Big Picture7 Tomorrow’s Technology Today10 Emerging Technology Projects18 Fellows Information20 Appendix23 Description of Emerging Technology Projects24

3. 3 Background and Objectives IEEE’s flagship publication, Spectrum, will focus on “the future of technology” in its’ January 2004 issue. To obtain a better understanding of technology issues, the magazine’s editorial staff wants to obtain views from influential people in the electronic and engineering industries. To this end, the magazine commissioned The Response Center, an independent market research company, to conduct a research project among IEEE members nominated by their peers for “Fellows” status. Primary objectives of the study include: l To measure Fellows’ opinions on hot topics in science and technology today, such as the impact of technology fields on society in the future, barriers to getting new technologies to market, and evaluation of current big money technology projects. l To provide Fellows with a forum for expressing their views on the future of technology by allowing them the opportunity to elaborate on their opinions to questions asked. l To produce a reference guide for Spectrum writers to access while authoring articles for the January ‘04 issue. Study findings gleaned from this research are summarized in the following charts.

4. 4 Methodology l The Response Center conducted a web-based research study among IEEE Fellows. Data collection took place over a period beginning October 21, 2003 and ending on November 12, 2003. l The questionnaire was developed by IEEE, in conjunction with The Response Center. It is estimated that the survey averaged 15 to 20 minutes to complete. l An email address list of approximately 3,047 Fellows was provided by IEEE. Fellows were pre-notified of the study via an alert email from IEEE. Following, The Response Center sent out email invitations and hosted the study’s website. Midway through data collection, reminder emails were sent to all who failed to respond to the initial invitation. l A total of 1,038 Fellows responded to the survey, resulting in a response rate of 35%.

5. 5 Notes on the Report l All numbers reported are percentages unless otherwise noted. These percentages have been rounded to the nearest whole number, thus percentages may not add to 100%. l Given the self-administered methodology employed, all results reported represent response-based data. That is, respondents who answer “don’t know” or who chose not to answer a specific question have been “based out” or excluded from reported results for that particular question. Thus, the actual number answering each question varies to some degree. l Where 10-point scales were used (ratings from 1-10), the higher number represents the more strongly positive evaluation. Top-3-box scores (ratings 8-10) indicate highly positive perceptions while bottom-3 box scores are indicative of highly negative perceptions. l Question numbers reflect the final version of the 2004 “Future of Technology” questionnaire.

6. Study Findings

7. 7 The Big Picture l Question: Please indicate how much societal impact each of the following fields will have on the world over the next ten years. 10= great impact on the world; 1= no impact on the world. Q1: Base = “total” (901)

8. 8 The Big Picture l Question: How will the following labor trends affect the world economy? 10= positive impact; 1= negative impact. Q2: Base = “total” (n)

9. 9 The Big Picture Q3: Base = “total” (900) Q3b: Base = “total” (850) l Question: In the next year, do you feel job prospects in your industry will improve, decline or stay the same? l Question: In 2014, do you feel job prospects in your industry will have improved, declined or will they be the same as they are today? In the Next Year In 2014

10. 10 Tomorrow’s Technology Today l Question: In your opinion, what is the biggest obstacle in getting a new technology to market? 1= biggest obstacle; 6= least biggest obstacle. Q4: Base = “total” (845) * Percentage ranked 1st or 2nd ** Percentage ranked 5th or 6th

11. 11 Tomorrow’s Technology Today l Question: When you evaluate the potential investment value of a new technology, how important is each of the following in influencing your evaluation. 10= strongly influences evaluation; 1= does not influence evaluation. Q5: Base = “total” (778)

12. 12 Tomorrow’s Technology Today l Question: How much do you agree with this statement? 10= strongly agree; 1= strongly disagree. “Established companies lose out to smaller companies in developing new technology.” Q6: Base = “total” (861) Statement: “Established companies lose out to smaller companies in developing new technology.”

13. 13 Tomorrow’s Technology Today l Question: Why do you feel this way? (Base = Those who agree with the statement -- gave a 7, 8, 9 or 10 rating) Q6b: Base = “agree” (431) Statement: “Established companies lose out to smaller companies in developing new technology.” Percentage who said yes

14. 14 Tomorrow’s Technology Today l Question: Why do you feel this way? (Base = Those who disagree with the statement -- gave a 1, 2, 3 or 4 rating) Q6b: Base = “disagree” (222) Statement: “Established companies lose out to smaller companies in developing new technology.” Percentage who said yes

15. 15 Tomorrow’s Technology Today l Question: Of the following companies, which should be worried that their competitors will surpass them in developing new technology? Q7: Base = “total” (787) Percentage who said yes

16. 16 Tomorrow’s Technology Today l Question: Where will the center of new technology research and development be in 2014? Q8: Base = “total” (842) Percentage who said yes

17. 17 Tomorrow’s Technology Today Q9: Base = “total” (866) l Question: In the next year, do you feel investment in new technology development will improve, decline or stay the same in your country?

18. 18 Emerging Technology Projects l Question: Below is a list of some emerging technology projects*. Please rate the potential success or failure of each project? 10= great success; 1= failure. Q10: Base = “total” (318) *See appendix for project descriptions

19. 19 Emerging Technology Projects l Question: Of the projects you have just rated, please check each one that you think will dramatically transform its industry if the project is successful. Q11: Base = “total” (758) *See appendix for project descriptions

20. Fellows Information

21. 21 Area of Expertise and Employment Q12; Q13: Base = “total” (859)

22. 22 Entrepreneurial Status Q14: Base = “total” (862)

23. 23 Description of Emerging Technology Projects l IBM’s Web Foundation Project: Data mining is a powerful tool that allows organizations to detect hidden patterns and trends. But currently, the data have to be well structured to allow software to analyze them, e.g., a database of shipping orders. Web Fountain is an IBM project that aims to allow users to mine the huge wealth of unstructured data available both within companies and on the Web, from office memos and white papers to Web logs and discussion boards. l Microsoft’s Spot Project: Smart Personal Object Technology. The idea is to endow ordinary objects such as watches and refrigerator magnets with “glanceable” information like sports scores, weather conditions, and stock prices via a new $60/year service called MSN Direct. To implement this, Microsoft, along with partners in the FM broadcasting industry, has created the DirectBand Network, a continuous broadcast network across the United States and Canada. Taking advantage of FM radio sub-carrier frequencies, watches with MSN Direct are continuously updated with Web-based information. l Alberta Supernet: By the end of 2004, the Alberta Supernet will have developed a single network providing 12,000 miles of wired and wireless high-speed Internet access backbone to every corner of Canada’s huge Alberta province. l Ensco/NASA Smart Dust Project: Through a grant from NASA, ENSCO Inc. hopes to accurately predict global weather by seeding the atmosphere with a network of sensors to a density of one per square kilometer. The system, says ENSCO, could also be used to chemical, biological or nuclear events. l Sumitomo’s Bulk Gallium Nitride Wafer Project: A process for making single-crystal gallium nitride wafers is being readied for manufacturing by researchers at Sumitomo Electric Industries. Such a process would vastly improve the quality of blue solid-state gallium nitride lasers, which are now built on sapphire substrates. l Nikon’s Electron Projection Lithography Project: This next-generation-lithography technology passes a broad beam of electrons through a mask containing the desired circuit patterns to create the very small— 70-nm or less—structures needed for the next generations of ICs.

24. 24 Description of Emerging Technology Projects l American Superconductor's Ship Motor Project: With completion of preliminary load and no-load tests, the first 5-MW high-temperature superconducting (HTS) electric ship propulsion motor is now being prepped by the U.S. Office of Naval Research for sea trials, even as design work begins on a 36.5-MW version. l General Motor’s Hywire: GM is calling this project the Journey to Reinvent the Automobile. This concept vehicle is designed around a fuel-cell propulsion system, which GM is betting will be the technology of the future. l Daimler Chrysler/EPRI Plug-In Hybrid Car: Daimler Chrysler/EPRI’s plug-in hybrid, will offer owners the option of charging their vehicles’ batteries from a wall outlet, giving them many of the advantages of a so- called “pure” electric vehicle, but without the drawback of limited range. l Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion: Several prototype energy plants around the world are studying the economic feasibility of generating electricity from the difference in temperature between the warm water of the ocean’s surface and the cold water at depths of one or two kilometers, a process called Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion. l Lawrence Livermore Laboratory National Ignition Facility: The $4.2 billion laser fusion system (the world’s largest) is intended to ensure the continued reliability of the U.S. nuclear weapons stockpile without performing full-scale underground tests. l The Virgo Consortium’s $$ billion Millennium Run: Goal is to create the most-advanced-to-date computer simulation of the evolution of the universe. It is being conducted by an international team of scientists out of the Max Planck Institute in Garching.