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2008.02.11-13 T. Bothos / D. Apostolou www.laboranova.com Prediction Market prototype V1 Information Management Unit (IMU) Institute of Communication and.

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Presentation on theme: "2008.02.11-13 T. Bothos / D. Apostolou www.laboranova.com Prediction Market prototype V1 Information Management Unit (IMU) Institute of Communication and."— Presentation transcript:

1 T. Bothos / D. Apostolou Prediction Market prototype V1 Information Management Unit (IMU) Institute of Communication and Computer Systems (ICCS)

2 T. Bothos / D. Apostolou Table of Contents Tool overview Recommended validation methodology User engagement and training requirements

3 T. Bothos / D. Apostolou Tool Overview 1/4 IDeM Tool Overview Idem explores a new paradigm for broad participation of knowledge workers in the evaluation of innovative ideas. People can put their ideas on internal prediction markets (PMs) and thereby explore and participate in a collaborative evaluation process. The participants can bet on the future success of ideas using virtual stocks representing future events whose price is a function of transactions representing individual probability-estimates of the event happening. The result is a prediction market that aggregates knowledge from many individuals in order to involve a broad base of insight in the evaluation of new ideas and concepts. Users are motivated by winning, teams are encouraged to transfer knowledge and organizations profit from a collaborative evaluation harnessing the wisdom of crowds

4 T. Bothos / D. Apostolou Tool Overview 2/4 IDeM Problem Solved Tool Advantages Evaluation of ideas Generation of ideas Explicit feedback for ideas Idea Markets offer an intuitive and game like approach to the problem of generating and evaluating ideas Compared to other tools, IDeM supports explicit feedback in terms of comments, ratings, enhancements for ideas

5 T. Bothos / D. Apostolou Tool Overview 3/4 IDeM Features and Roles Role Market Administrator Trader Market Administrator/ Observer Action Create new market Buy/Sell idea- stocks Provide feedback View market output OutcomeNew market Ideas evaluation Comments/ Ratings/ New ideas Selection of ideas Video gr/mpthim/create _market.swf gr/mpthim/feedba ck.swf pthim/view_results.swf

6 T. Bothos / D. Apostolou Tool Overview 4/4 IDeM Target Market Base Scenario IDeM is targeted to a large range of industries including: Local and regional authorities and public administrations Regional centers and development agencies Industrial associations Enterprises (large and SMEs) Prerequisites are: A culture of innovation And/or the will to exploit the collective intelligence of employees or other members And/or the urge to participate in open innovation processes The chief of innovation management (decision maker) in Alpha corporation wishes to evaluate a set of new product ideas and furthermore identify new ones S/he creates a new market in which the contracts represent the new products Company employees are invited to become traders Once the market reaches equilibrium (trading stops or diminishes) the market closes The trader(s) with the highest portfolio value(s) is rewarded The market output - at its simplest form a ranked list of products - can assist the decision maker when making her/his final selection

7 T. Bothos / D. Apostolou Table of Contents Tool overview Recommended validation methodology User engagement and training requirements

8 T. Bothos / D. Apostolou Recommended Validation Methodology 1/2 IDeM Methodology Overall Goal: Testing of Idea Markets (IMs) as a tool for idea evaluation or as a tool for idea generation and evaluation Preconditions: Traders should be diverse, independent and decentralized and more than 20 Ideas, rewards, session duration, operating hours, etc. remain fixed Objectives: 1.To evaluate validity of IM results By statistically analyzing Idea Market logs By comparing IMs results against other methods e.g. surveys run by the Living Lab 2. To evaluate User Experience Understand success factors for IM acceptance (e.g. motivation) Evaluate market features, s/w usability, etc Identify factors that affect investment decisions (not traceable by statistical analysis e.g. idea description style, environment influences, etc)

9 T. Bothos / D. Apostolou Recommended Validation Methodology 2/2 IDeM Required Tasks 1.Software set-up 2.Populate market with ideas (and their descriptions) 3.Users training 4.Run one or more sessions with a number of ideas (depends on the scenario and Living Lab but should be more than 10 - we aim to have as many traders and transactions as possible in every session) 5.Traders and administrators fill-in questionnaires 6.We conduct interviews with selected users and administrator 7.Analyze market logs 8.Run evaluation of same ideas with other method (or use already existing evaluation results of the same ideas)

10 T. Bothos / D. Apostolou Table of Contents Tool overview Recommended validation methodology User engagement and training requirements

11 T. Bothos / D. Apostolou User Engagement and Training Requirements IDeM User Engagement Training Proposal We intend to: Guide the Living lab throughout the test Provide online help during the configuration phase Be involved in the evaluation of the tool in terms of participating in interviews with users, analyzing logs and data Online documentation Tutorials Face to face sessions (related to user engagement)


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