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2012 General Election What Happened? Prepared for MAHP November 15, 2012 5/1/2015.

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Presentation on theme: "2012 General Election What Happened? Prepared for MAHP November 15, 2012 5/1/2015."— Presentation transcript:

1 2012 General Election What Happened? Prepared for MAHP November 15, /1/2015

2 1992 – 2012 Composition Of The Electorate (based on exit polling) White Age Black Hispanic

3 1992 – 2012 Composition Of Partisan Presidential Vote, By Ethnicity White Black Hispanic Asian White Black Hispanic Asian

4 Six Keys To The 2012 Presidential Tax Policy George W. Bush Empathy Health Care Reform Hurricane Sandy Voter Suppression Efforts

5 2012 Turnout Appears To Be Down From 2008, With Significant Variation By State (based on AP reporting as of Tuesday Nov. 13, 2012) Turnout Increases: Top 10 States Nevada *+ 4.7% North Carolina+ 4.3% Wisconsin *+ 2.8% Massachusetts *+ 2.2% Iowa+ 2.2% Louisiana+ 1.5% Florida *+ 0.8% Minnesota+ 0.7% North Dakota *+ 0.7% Virginia *+ 0.3% Turnout Decreases: Top 10 States Alaska- 32.9% California- 22.6% New York- 19.3% New Jersey- 12.7% Arizona- 11.4% New Mexico- 9.6% Oklahoma- 8.9% Washington, DC- 8.9% Kansas- 8.9% Vermont- 8.3% 2008 Total Votes:129,449, Total Votes:121,190,681 Change: - 4.5% *Competitive Senate race

6 Presidential Vote, By Key Subgroups Group Obama 2008 Support Obama 2012 SupportChange Age %60% or over Gender Male Female Race White Black Hispanic/Latino Asian Other Population of Area City over 50, Suburbs Small town/Rural4539-6

7 Unsurprisingly, The Economy Was Viewed As The Most Important Issue Facing The Country On Election Day Which ONE of these four issues is the most important facing the country? (CHECK ONLY ONE) The economy Foreign policy Federal budget deficit Health care Support among those indicating issue as the most important

8 Evaluations Of The Economy Remain Dismal, But Are Notably Better Than 4 Years Ago Do you think the condition of the nation’s economy is: excellent, good, not so good, or poor? Change Excellent1%2%+ 1 Good Not so good Poor

9 Most Voters Still Blame George W. Bush For Economic Problems Who is more to blame for current economic problems? GroupObamaBush Total38%53% Age or over4248 Race White4843 Black787 Hispanic2469 Candidate Preference Obama supporters 490 Romney supporters 7514 Obama 38% Bush 53% Not sure 9%

10 6-in-10 Voters Favor Higher Tax Rates For Those Earning Over $250,000 Should income tax rates: increase for all, increase only on income over $250,000, or not increase for anyone? Increase for all / only over $250,000 Total60% White57 Black73 Hispanic61 Obama voters73 Romney voters43 Not increase for anyone 35% Not sure 5%

11 Obama Dominated Vote Among Those Most Interested In A Caring President Which ONE of these four candidate qualities mattered most in deciding how you voted for president? (CHECK ONLY ONE) Has a vision for the future Is a strong leader Cares about people like me Shares my values Among Blacks: 38% Among Hispanics: 28% Support among line-item respondents

12 Majority of Voters Think Obama Is More In Touch With People Like Them, Especially Young, Non-White Voters Who is more in touch with people like you? GroupObamaRomney Total53%43% Age or over4555 Race White4456 Black973 Hispanic7228 Asian7129 Other7129 Obama 53% Romney 43% Not sure 4%

13 Deep Divisions Persist On Health Care Law, But Only One- Quarter Of Voters Supported Romney’s Position To Repeal It What should happen to the 2010 health care law? Expand it Repeal all of it Repeal some of it Leave it as is Support among line-item respondents

14 Obama Edged Romney Among Late Deciding Voters When did you finally decide for whom to vote in the presidential election? Just today / In the last few days Before that In September In October Support among line-item respondents

15 Hurricane Sandy Appears To Have Moved Some Voters To Obama In your vote for president, how would you rate the importance of Obama’s hurricane response? The most important factor Not a factor at all A minor factor An important factor Support among line-item respondents

16 Massachusetts Senate Race

17 Massachusetts Senate Race Results % Brown (1,168,178 votes) 46.7% Coakley (1,060,861 votes) 46.3% Brown (1,450,044 votes) 53.7% Warren (1,679,027 votes) Difference: 107,317 votesDifference: 228,983 votes

18 Brown Margin, by County Brown Margin Change Statewide4.8%-7.3%-12.1 Plymouth Worcester Barnstable Essex Bristol Norfolk Hampden Nantucket Middlesex Hampshire Franklin Dukes Suffolk Berkshire

19 Turnout Analysis Change Statewide2,229,0393,129, % Suffolk173,499281, % Hampden129,587197, % Berkshire43,16763, % Nantucket4,1736, % Hampshire55,92080, % Essex252,399362, % Dukes7,56810, % Bristol166,218238, % Worcester260,338363, % Franklin27,29037, % Middlesex543,522745, % Plymouth190,586254, % Norfolk271,088353, % Barnstable103,684132, % Counties won by Brown in 2010

20 Turnout In The Biggest Cities Provided Warren With Much Of Her Winning Margin City Change in Turnout 2010 – 2012Warren Margin Boston+ 62.7%+ 119,748 Worcester+ 54.9%+ 14,512 Springfield+ 88.4%+ 25,632 Lowell+ 66.8%+ 5,773 Cambridge+ 50.4%+ 33,664 New Bedford+ 59.5%+ 13,282 Total+ 212,611

21 Demographics Of Massachusetts Senate Vote WarrenBrown Warren Margin All Gender Men Women Age or over Race White Non-white Political Affiliation Democrat Republican Independent Household Income Under $50, $50,000 - $99, Over $100,

22 Brown Viewed More Favorably Than Warren Among Election Day Voters Is your opinion of (candidate): favorable or unfavorable?

23 Thank you! Chris Anderson Anderson Robbins Research 6 Beacon Street, suite 720 Boston, MA 02108

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