1. Dan Nataf, Ph.D Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel Community College 2008 Presidential Elections: Candidates and Coalitions

2. Overview Evolution of Dem Party What issues are challenging parties? How have issues and coalitions combined in the primaries?

3. Evolution of Democratic Party Pre-1960s Democratic Party Industrial economy Residual anti-Republican southern support Tied to traditional culture, nationalism 1960-1970s Transformation Post-industrial economy changes social structure, union strength Civil rights movement undercuts southern, white, rural, fundamentalist support Culture war: Liberalism gets secular, tied to feminism, Affirmative Action, youth, counter-culture Anti-war wing ascendant Early 21 st Century Challenge of appealing to parts of the legacy coalition (blue collar, low skilled, white males, Catholic, union members) while also appealing to the ‘new economy’ groups High tech, trade oriented, highly flexible/white collar workforce Minorities, women, youth Role of national identify – war, immigrants

4. Evolution of Democratic Party Legacy Issues NAFTA – free trade vs. job retention Labor market competition issues Economic security – expansion of government services to deal with uncertain economy Acknowledgement of traditional roles and culture Contradictions of Emerging Democratic Coalition Post-industrial Issues International economy Stimulating green jobs sectors Protecting ‘quality of life’ Getting next generation ready for new economy Expanded tolerance for minorities, alternative lifestyles

5. How do history and current issues align? Overview of main issues identified in exit polls On Democratic side: −Economy −War in Iraq −Health care −America ready for a woman, African-American president? Republican side −Terrorism −Immigration −Taxes −Cultural issues – abortion, gay marriage −Republicans ready for a ‘maverick’ candidate?

6. Democratic Voters’ – Ideology by State

7. Obama Vote by Ideology: States

8. Obama Vote by Ideology: US, Texas, Ohio, Missouri

9. Cand. Traits: Changes, Cares, Experience, Electability by State

10. Candidate Traits: Change % Saying “change’ by candidate

11. Voters in the Mood for Change % Saying “change’ by candidate – Nation, Texas, Ohio, Missouri

12. Democrats: Most Important Issues

13. Republicans: Most Important Issues

14. Contrast Democrats and Republicans : Most Important Issues – the Economy

15. Democratic Issues - Economy

16. Democratic Issues – Health Care

17. Democratic Issues - Iraq

18. Republican Issues: Immigration Options

19. Republican Issues: Keep Abortion Legal

20. Party and Demographics: Obama Vote by Dem/Independent

21. Electoral Coalitions: Obama/Clinton

22. Demographics - Age: Obama-Clinton

23. Race and Obama Support by Black Vote as % of Total Vote

24. Latinos and Obama Vote by Latino Vote as % of Total Vote

25. Electoral Dynamics: Expected vs. Actual Obama Vote in Maryland, Virginia and Wisconsin

26. Expected vs. Actual Obama Vote in Ohio and Texas

27. Democratic Electoral Results by Primary Type

28. Electoral Results by Primary Timing Nevada (C+5) New Hampshire (C+3) Iowa (O+8) South Caro. (O+28) Arizona (C+9) Arkansas (C+42) Calif (C+10) Mass (C+15) New Jersey (C+10) New Mxo (C+2) NY (C+17) Oklahoma (C+24) Tenn (C+13) Alabama (O+14) Alaska (O+50) Colo (O+35) Idaho (O+63) Illinois (O+31) Kansas (O+48) Minn (O+35) Missouri (O+1) No. Dakota (O+24 Utah (O+18) Ohio (C+10) RI (C+18) Texas (C+3) Dist. Col. (O+51) Louisiana (O+21) Maine (O+19) Maryland (O+23) Nebraska (O+36) Vermont (O+22) Virginia (O+29) Washington (O+36) Wisconsin (O+17)

29. Conclusion 1.Civil rights movement – heightens saliency of race Clear impact on South voting patterns But Obama’s strong performance in ‘white’ states implies ‘post-racial’ tendencies 2. Industrial change – heightens saliency of zero-sum struggle among those adversely affected – Clinton ‘blue collar, lower income, lower education’ appeal – reinforces idea of race/class contrast 3. Culture war – saliency of search for socio-economic security with identity politics’ Major issues focus on socio-economic security on Democratic side Polarization between Latinos, whites and blacks portends continuing challenges in uniting coalition Immigration: mostly a Republican issue, will that draw Reagan Democrats to Republicans? Race and gender clearly signal scope of change in Dem party