1. 1 2012 – The Year in Review

2. The Fleets - 2012 Type Western Built Eastern Built Total Turbojets 21,479 1,065 22,544 Turboprops 4,817 1,195 6,012 Business Jets 17,642 Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service

3. Major Accidents Commercial Jets 1 January 2012 to 31 December 2012 CFIT LOC Excursion DateOperatorAircraftLocationPhaseFatal 20 AprilBhoja AirlinesB-737Islamabad, PakistanApproach127 9 MaySukhoiSU-100 Mount Salak,Indonesia Enroute45 2 JuneAllied AirB-727Accra, GhanaLanding0 3 JuneDana AirMD-83Lagos, NigeriaApproach153 30 NovAero ServiceIL-76Brazzaville, Congo Go Around 7 25 DecAir BaganF-100 Heho, MyanmarLanding 1 29 DecRed Wings AirlinesTU-204 Moscow, RussiaLanding 5 Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service

4. Commercial Jet Major Accidents 2000 through 2012 20 15 10 5 200102030405060708091011 13 19 13 16 11 17 19 17 19 14 12 Eastern Built 7 Source: Ascend

5. Major Accident Rate Western-Built Commercial Jets 1999 – 2012 Accident rate per million departures Source: Ascend

6. Major Accidents Commercial Jets 1 January 2013 to 10 April 2013 CFIT LOC Excursion DateOperatorAircraftLocationPhaseFatal 29 JanuarySCAT AirCRJ-200Almaty, KazakhstanApproach21 Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service

7. Major Accidents Commercial Turboprops (> 14 seats) 1 January 2012 to 31 December 2012 CFIT DateOperatorAircraftLocationPhaseFatal 30 JanuaryTRACEPAN-28Namoya, DRCEnroute3 2 AprilUtairATR-72Tyuman, RussiaTakeoff31 9 AprilAir TanzaniaDHC-8Kigoma, TanzaniaTakeoff0 28 April Jubba Airways AN-24 Galkayo, Somalia Landing0 14 MayAgni AirDO-228Jomsom, NepalApproach15 6 June Air Class Lineas Aereas SW Metro III Montevideo, Uruguay Climb2 10 June Ukrainska Shkola Pilotov LET - 410Borodyanka, UkraineEnroute5 20 JuneITABGulfstream IPweto, DRCLanding0 19 AugustALFA AirlinesAN-24Talodi, SudanApproach32 22 AugustMombassa Air SafariLET-410Ngeredi, KenyaTakeoff4 12 Sept Petropavlovsk- Kamchatsky Air Enterprise AN-28Palana, RussiaApproach10 28 SeptSita AirDO-228Katmandú, NepalClimb19 7 OctoberAzza TransportAN-12Khartoum, SudanEnroute13 19 OctoberAir Mark AviationAN-12Shindand, AfghanistanLanding0 27 NovInter Iles AirEMB-120Moroni, ComorosClimb0 17 DecAmazon SkyAN-26Tomas, PeruEnroute4 22 DecPerimeter AviationMetro IIISanikiluaq, CanadaApproach1 Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service

8. Commercial Turboprop Major Accidents 2000 through 2012 20010203040506070809 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 22 31 33 31 39 24 29 21 10 20 11 25.9 (12 years) 21.4 (5 years) 23 12 21 20 17 Eastern Built

9. Major Accidents Commercial Turboprops (> 14 seats) 1 January 2013 to 10 April 2013 CFIT Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service DateOperatorAircraftLocationPhaseFatal 23 JanurayKenn Borek AirDHC-6 Terra Nova Bay, Antarctia Enroute3 13 February South AirlinesAN-24Donetsk, UkraineApproach5 4 MarchCAAFokker 50Goma, DRCApproach7 8 March ACE Air Cargo Beech 1900 Anchorage, Alaska, USA Approach2

10. Major Accidents Business Jets 1 January 2011 to 31 December 2011 DateOperatorAircraftLocationPhaseFatal 6 JanuaryPriester AviationLear -35Springfield, IL, USALanding0 4 FebruarySky LoungeHawker 900Sulaymaniyah, IraqClimb7 18 February Escuela de Aviacion Lear 24Villasana, MexicoLanding2 28 March Hong Fei General Citation IIMissing - ChinaEnroute3 5 MayJorda LLCHS-125Loreto Bay, MexicoApproach0 25 MayJet Suite AirEMB PhenomSedona, AZ, USALanding0 29 NovemberWings over Africa Gulfstream IIHuambo, AngolaTakeoff0 Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service

11. Major Accidents Business Jets 1 January 2012 to 31 December 2012 DateOperatorAircraftLocationPhaseFatal 2 FebruaryExtrapoint, LLCLear 35Pueblo, CO, USATakeoff0 12 February Trident Aviation Svcs Gulfstream IV Bakavu-Kavumu, DRC Landing3 1 MarchAsia Today, LtdCitation 750 Egelsbach, Germany Approach5 15 MarchPrivateCitation 501 Franklin-Macon, NC, USA Landing5 18 June Triple C Devlopment Beech 400 Atlanta,Gegoria, USA Landing0 13 July Universal Jet Aviation Gulfstream IV Le Castellet, FranceLanding3 2 AugustAirnorCitation 500 Santiago de Compostela, Spain Approach2 15 SeptPrivateLear 24 Bornholm, Denmark Approach0 18 SeptDewberry Air LLCBeech 400Macon, GA, USALanding0 11 Nov Tropic Air Taxi Aero Citation 525Sao Paulo, BrazilLanding0 17 NovUS CustomsCitation 550 Greenwood SC, USA Landing0 9 December Starwood Management Lear 25Iturbie, MexicoEnroute7 21 December US CustomsCitation 550 Oklahoma City, USA Landing0 Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service

12. Business Jet Major Accidents 2000 through 2012 20 15 10 5 200102030405060708091011 14 8 8 15 9 1211 7 8 10.5 7 12 13

13. Business Jet Major Accident Rate 2000 through 2012 (Accidents per 1,000 Aircraft) 1.0.75.50.25 200506070809101112 4 Year Average:.52 8 Year Average:.67

14. Major Accidents Business Jets 1 January 2013 to 10 April 2013 Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service DateOperatorAircraftLocationPhaseFatal 20 FebruaryThe Vein GuysPremier IThomson, GA, USALanding5 4 March Global Jet Luxembourg Premier IAnnemasse, FranceTakeoff2 17 March 7700 Enterprises Premier I South Bend, IA, USA Approach2

16. Approach and Landing Major Accidents Commercial Jets 1 January 2012 through 31 December 2012 DateOperatorAircraftLocationPhaseFatal 20 AprilBhoja AirlinesB-737Islamabad, PakistanApproach127 2 JuneAllied AirB-727Accra, GhanaLanding0 3 JuneDana AirMD-83Lagos, NigeriaApproach153 30 NovAero ServiceIL-76Brazzaville, CongoLanding7 25 DecAir BaganF-100 Heho, MyanmarLanding 1 29 DecRed Wings AirlinesTU-204 Moscow, RussiaLanding 3

17. Business Jet Major Accidents 2000 through 2012 2000010203040506 0708 5 10 15 20 8 14 8 8 15 9 12 11 7 09 63% of Business Jet Major Accidents were Approach and Landing Accidents 6 ALA Accidents 8 5 9 5 8 7 7 4 5 8 6 10 7 4 11 10.5 6.5 12 13 11

18. Controlled Flight into Terrain Major Accidents Commercial Jets 1 January 2012 though 31 December 2012 DateOperatorAircraftLocationPhaseFatal 20 AprilBhoja AirlinesB-737Islamabad, PakistanApproach127 9 MaySukhoiSU-100 Mount Salak,Indonesia Enroute45 25 DecAir BaganF-100 Heho, MyanmarLanding 1 Sources: Honeywell (Don Bateman), Ascend

19. Over the last 6 years, 23 of 82 turboprop major accidents has been a CFIT– that’s 28%, or more than 1 of every 4 !

20. Upset Aircraft Loss of Control Unusual Attitudes Lack of Control Upset Aircraft Stall Extended Envelope Advanced Maneuvering

21. Upset Aircraft Accident An upset accident is an accident in which an aircraft is upset and unintentionally flown into a position from which the crew is unable to recover due to either aircrew, aircraft, environmental, or a combination of these factors.

22. Over 25 degrees nose up Over 10 degrees nose down Greater than 45 degrees bank Airspeed inappropriate for conditions

23. Aircraft Upset Major Accidents Commercial Jets 1 January 2012 through 31 December 2012 DateOperatorAircraftLocationPhaseFatal None in 2012

24. Aircraft Upset Major Accidents Commercial Jets 1999 through 2012 Number of Accidents 4 6

25. Upset Aircraft - No good visual references * IMC * Night * Over Water or lightless/featureless land - Distraction involved - Initial movement imperceptible (2 degrees/sec) - Initial correction often in wrong direction - One of crew has good or better SA – but wait too long to correct the situation - The pilot who got into the upset situation is the least likely one to be able to recover from it

26. Stalls 1. #1 Factor: Angle of Attack 2. Low Speed warning systems ? 3. For airspeed issues --Pitch and Power 4. Modern aircraft know their AOA Why doesn’t the crew ?

28. Runway Excursion Data Update Added 2007 - 2010 Data Base now covers 16 Years 1995-2010

29. Runway Safety Accident Data 1995 – 2010 Number Average Incursions: 11 (.7/year) Confusion: 6 (.3/year) Excursions: 650 40.6/Year 1.0/year

30. Other Challenges - Functional Check Flights - Unreliable Airspeed

31. Functional Check Flights - Symposium February 2011 - Vancouver - EASA Rulemaking on FCF (NPA published) - FCF Steering Team * Boeing * Airbus * Bombardier * Embraer * Gulfstream - FCF Compendium

32. Introduction “Be Prepared” paper FCF Guidelines Document FCF Symposium Material - Preparation - Ground Phase - Flight Phase (25 Modules: e.g. Auto Pilot, Air Conditioning, APU)

33. Unreliable Airspeed Industry Steering Group Formed The Issue Historical and recent accidents and incidents have highlighted the increased risk associated with unreliable airspeed (URA) events Created URA Philosophy and Guidelines

34. URA Philosophy - The keys to successfully dealing with a URA event are recognition, procedures, and training - The aircrew’s recognition of and initial reaction to a URA event are critical - Manufacturers should attempt to ensure unreliable airspeed events are clearly identifiable to aircrews - The most important function of the aircrew during an in- flight URA event is to maintain control over the aircraft’s flight trajectory and energy situation by selection of attitude and power settings so that the aircrafts flight parameters remain within normal limits

35. URA Philosophy - Crews should be aware of the instruments and critical systems that are not affected by a URA event (e.g. attitude displays, engines) - Procedures and training for URA events should include the effect of a URA event on other aircraft systems, and potential alerts/warnings and indication system inaccuracies that could be expected - Crew coordination and communication are important elements in successfully addressing a URA event

36. URA Guidelines - URA procedures should provide information on attitude and power settings that enable crews to maintain the aircrafts flight parameters within normal limits during in-flight unreliable airspeed events for all phases of flight - URA procedures should address the availability and use of independent alternate sources of airspeed information (e.g. GPS, inertial, angle of attack, etc.) - URA procedures should include memory items for critical immediate action steps - Training programs addressing URA should exist at beginning (ab initio/MPL), initial, and recurrent levels - URA training should include both simulator and academic phases

37. 2012 Summary

38. Aviation Safety 2012  Record year for commercial jets  Record year for commercial turboprops  CFIT continues to be a challenge – and it is making a strong comeback as the leading killer  There are many challenges out there, and FSF is addressing many of them: * Runway Excursions * Upset Aircraft * Functional Check Flights * Unreliable Airspeed  Average year for business jets

39. Some Things to Think About  Upset Aircraft not a major issue in business aviation  CFIT not a major issue in business aviation  ALA is a major issue in business aviation - Over 75 % of accidents over last 4 years - Majority of those were runway excursions Data and Risk Management