1. Food Security in Ethiopia Depth of Issue and Stakeholder Analysis Prepared By: Catherine Thompson, Jennifer Prenger, Mark MacKew, Michael Plevan, Sarah Cruikshank, Sean Jellow, Siobhan Keer Date: Friday September 29 th 2011 Wilfrid Laurier University & Balsillie School of International Affairs

2. FAO Definition … “food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food which meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life”… Source: FAO

3. Presentation Overview Depth of Issue Nutrition Demographics Agriculture Economics Governance/Rule of Law Stakeholder Analysis Local Level National Level International Level

4. Nutritional Health: Overview Prevalence of Undernourishment 41% of the total Ethiopian population is undernourished 31.6 million people Higher than sub-Saharan average (30%) Source: FAO Stats 2005-2007

5. Nutritional Health: Overview Caloric Deficit Deficiency of 320 kcal/person/day Caloric intake has only increased by 100 calories from 1990-2007 Global Hunger Index Ethiopia: 29.8 Ranked 80 th worst out of 122 countries Part of “alarming” category Source: FAO Stats 2005-2007; International Food Policy Research Institute 2010

6. Nutritional Health: Vulnerable Populations Women 26.9% of women are undernourished (2005) Twice the sub-Saharan average (13.3%) Affects overall health, including ability to survive childbirth Maternal mortality ratio: 470 per 100,000 births Women’s undernourishment significantly affects the health of their children Source: WHO 2005

7. Nutritional Health: Vulnerable Populations Children 20% of infants have low birth weight (2009) Pregnancy and the first two years of life are a vital time period for nutrition and developmental health Undernourishment in the first two years can cause irreversible, long-term damage Source: UNICEF 2009

8. Nutritional Health: Vulnerable Populations Source: WHO 2005

9. Nutritional Health: Vulnerable Populations Children Infant mortality rate: 67 per 1000 live births Under-5 mortality rate: 106 per 1000 live births Malnutrition is the underlying cause in 57% of deaths of children under five years of age Source: UNICEF 2003-2009

10. Demographics: Population Distribution Life expectancy at birth: 55 years Population growth rate: 2.9% Median age: 16.8 years Urban population makes up 17% Rural population is 83% Average annual growth of urban population is 3.8% Source: UNICEF 2005-2008

11. Demographics: HDI and Poverty Index Human Development Index: 0.328 Rank: 157th worst out of 169 HDI trends since 2000 have been below sub-Saharan average every year In the UNDP Human Poverty Index, Ethiopia is the fourth poorest country among those surveyed (130th out of 134) Source: UNDP(a) 2010; UNDP(b) 2007

12. Demographics: Ethnic groups Oromo: 34.49% Amhara: 26.89% Somali: 6.2% Tigray: 6.07% Sidama 4.01% Gurage 2.53% Welayta 2.31% Source: Ethiopia Country Report, 2010 Note: Not to Scale

13. Demographics: Education Adult literacy 36% Combined gross enrolment in primary education (both sexes) is 49% Mean years of schooling of adults is 1.5 years Expected years of schooling of children is 8.3 years Source: UNDP 2010

14. Agriculture: Overview Potential arable land 55 million ha (50% of total land mass) 14% of total land mass under crop cultivation 96 % of farms are smallholder farms Source: UNDP & ESSP

15. Agriculture: Importance Employs 80+ % of Ethiopian labour force Accounts for 40% of GDP Average growth rates of 8% annually in past 10 years Source: UNDP 2011

16. Agriculture: Main Crops 93% of total area cultivated in grains, of which 73.4% cereals Cash crops account for 4.2 % of total area cultivated. Major cash crops are coffee and chat Source: USDA & ESSP

17. Agriculture: Farmer Profile Average age of landholder: 41.5 Proportion male: 80.9 Median years of schooling: 1.1 Mean household size: 5.2 members 64% of landholders not literate Only 6% have six or more years of schooling Source: Chamberlin and Taffesse

18. Agriculture: Yields Cereal production more than doubled from 1997-98 to 2007-08 Mostly due to increased acreage farmed, rather than increased yields Cereals yields still lower than Least Developed Countries average Source: ESSP

19. Agriculture: Intensification 39% of land growing cereals used fertilizers 4.7 % used improved seeds 1.1 % irrigated 14.5% used extension packages Result: low yields, vulnerability to poor weather Source: Chamberlin and Taffesse

20. Agriculture: Annual Rainfall Averages Source: National Meteorically Services, 2000

21. Agriculture: Land Degradation Costs of lost soil and nutrients estimated at 3% of GDP annually 30,000 hectares lost to water erosion 62,000 hectares of forest land cleared annually Source: Berry

22. Economics: Overview Market Composition Small Private Sector Reliance on Imports Weak Banking System Reliance on Agriculture Heavy Land Regulation Sources: Ethiopia Country Report, 2010

23. Economics: Ability to Purchase Food FactorValue GDP, Overall$8.6Billion US, 2010 GDP per capita$358 US/year, 2010 Purchasing Power Parity$1,033 US/year, 2010 Consumer Price Index223 (base year =2005), 2010 Food Price Index231.8, August 2011 Inflation8.1% Consumer Rate, 2010 Poverty Line38.7%, 2006 Source: CIA World Factbook, 2011, FAO 2011 & World Development Indicators, 2010

24. Economics: Ability to Produce Food Financing is not easily accessible State-run Banks & No foreign banks allowed Hard to find start-up loans rurally Lending Rates – 8% in 2010 Household Consumption Expenditure – 89.4% in 2010 Government Deficiencies $4.8B Cash Deficit as of 2005 Trade Deficit, 21% of GDP in 2010 Sources: Ethiopia Country Report, 2010 & World Development Indicators, 2010

25. Economics: Imports & Exports FactorImportsExports Days45 in 201044 in 2010 Container Costs$2,993US in 2010$1,898US in 2010 Food (% of Total)10.9% in 200977% in 2009 Trade DeficitTotal $4B in 2008Net 21% in 2010 Sources: World Development Indicators, 2010

26. Governance/Rule of Law: Power of Government One party (EPRDF) dominance since 1994 Extent of central government’s influence is embedded in society Ethiopian citizens are denied real access to a democratic process Sources: Ethiopia Country Report, 2010 & Freedom in the World Ethiopia, 2011

27. Governance/Rule of Law: Corruption Corruption has become a normal way of life for Ethiopians “Land of 10%” Preferential treatment (land agreements, business contracts, university positions) is given to party members Collusion between private sector players and government officials Sources: 2011 Index of Economic Freedom & Global Corruption Report, 2009

28. Governance/Rule of Law: Judiciary Independent but appointed by key political actors Very rarely review or change government legislature Tendency to follow EPDRF party rhetoric 2009 Proclamation for the Registration and Regulation of Charities and Societies Sources: Ethiopia Country Report, 2010; Freedom in the World: Country Report Ethiopia, 2011 & Leicht, 2009

29. Local Stakeholders Local producers Small farms, low crop yield Production is largely for household consumption Lack of infrastructure for distribution Consumers Made up largely of the urban population Forced to sell assets Lessened ability to cope with future insecurity Sources: von Braun and Olofinbayi, 2007 & World Food Program and UNICEF, 2009

30. Local Stakeholders Local business Significant decrease in sales Increase in credit-seeking buyers Lack of accountability in local government Local NGOs Council of elders Community grassroots organizations Sources: World Food Program and UNICEF, 2009 & Paarlberg, 2002

31. National Level Stakeholders Federal Government Federal Ethics Anti-corruption Committee (FEAC) Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise (EGTE) Professional Alliance for Development Ethiopia (PADet) Civil Society National Bank of Ethiopia Universities Private Business Epistemic Community

32. National Level Stakeholders Federal Government Issues: Handles the majority of its resources inefficiently Corruption  low accountability and transparency Current practices do not address the World Food Program’s “Threats to Food Security” Several development and poverty reduction plans already implemented that do not produce adequate results Has the potential to be a positive contributor or a negative contributor Sources: Ethiopia Country Report, 2010 & World Food Program

33. National Level Stakeholders Federal Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission Independent federal government body accountable to the Prime Minister Head office in Addis Ababa The commissions objectives: In cooperation with relevant bodies, to strive to create an aware society where corruption will not be condoned or tolerated by promoting ethics and anti-corruption education; In cooperation with relevant bodies, to prevent corruption offences and other improprieties; To expose, investigate and prosecute corruption offences and impropriety. Potential positive contributor = need to bolster and utilize Possible venue through which to curtail negative government involvement Sources: FEAC, 2011

34. National Level Stakeholders Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise Head Office in Addis Ababa, has 10 branch offices and 91 trade centers throughout the country Vision: “To see [a] stabilized agricultural product market in [the] country and be a leader in export revenue earning.” Objectives: To purchase grain from local farmers in order to sell it primarily in the export market To facilitate the stabilization of the market for local farmers and encourage them to increase production Issue: not effective in accomplishing its goals on a large scale, possibly due to lack of resources available to them Are a potential positive contributor Not including this agency would be a waste of resources and would create overlap Source: EGTE, 2011

35. National Level Stakeholders Professional Alliance for Development Ethiopia An indigenous, not-for-profit, non-governmental humanitarian organization established in 1998 by a group of voluntary development professionals funded primarily by international organizations A member of many networks, alliances Issue: mission/vision of the agency are commendable, but today is not an abundantly effective agency A potential positive contributor Involving this agency as a primary stakeholder is an opportunity to revive the organization and utilize its resources Source: PADet, 2011

36. National Level Stakeholders Civil Society National NGOs Advocacy Groups Interest Groups Social Movements Community Level self-help networks Councils of Elders Issues: Rudimentary system of organized groups Ignored and undermined by government Only accepted mechanism of mediation between government and society are councils of elders Potential positive contributors Some groups show high resiliency Civil society can reach rural areas that are often left out Bolstering civil society will produce positive externalities Sources: Ethiopia Country Report, 2010

37. International Stakeholders United Nations The UN Development Assistance Framework (UNDAF) 2008-2011 and Ethiopia’s 5 Year Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP) set goals for agricultural and industrial growth. UNDAF then set out priority areas in which it can best help achieve the goals set forth in the GTP. Organizations Involved World Food Program (WFP) Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) Protracted Relief and Recovery Operation Ethiopia Managing Environmental Resources to Enable Transition (MERET) School Meals programme Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Asset development Education Climate change adaptation Small scale irrigation UN Environment Programme (UNEP) Programme in Africa Strategic Framework for Africa

38. International Stakeholders International Financial Institutions Provide the vast majority of loans, funding and economic assistance for Ethiopian development programs. These cover programs vary in scope and funding levels. Organizations Involved World Bank, through the International Development Association (IDA) is Ethiopia’s largest provider of official development assistance: has committed over US$7 billion to more than 60 projects in Ethiopia since 1991 Country Assistance Strategy Irrigation and Drainage Agricultural Growth Project Food Security Project World Trade Organization Observer Status Currently processing Accession Working Party Established in2003 International Monetary Fund Qualified as a Heavily Indebted Poor Country (HIPC) in 2001 and received $1.3B in debt relief

39. International Stakeholders International Civil Society In 2008 the Proclamation to Provide for the Registration and Regulation of Charities and Societies was signed into law. This law discriminates against Ethiopian CSOs that receive more than 1/10 of their income from abroad, by preventing them from working on vital issues of public importance and contributing to national life in Ethiopia. This severely limits domestic NGO activity. Nonetheless, there are many international organizations involved in Ethiopia food security crisis. International Food Policy Research Institute Ethiopian Strategy Support Program in conjunction with Ethiopian Development Research Institute, CSA and the Ministry of Agriculture to conduct research, develop research capacity, increase informational databases and develop agricultural and food security analysis. Global Agriculture and Food Security Programme Raising Agricultural Productivity Linking Farmers to markets Capacity building Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) Connection building and research coordination (such as IFPRI)

40. International Stakeholders Other Nations Since 2003, investment in the agricultural and infrastructure sectors, particularly from India, China and Saudi Arabia has increased substantially. Principle Investors India In 2007-2008, investment agreements with reached close to $1 billion Ethiopia has offered 1.8 million hectares of its farmland to Indian investors for export to India May top $10 billion by 2015 China Construction of the 300-megawatt Tekeze hydroelectric project in Ethiopia began in 2002. The $224 million project is the largest African joint venture with China and will Last year, Ethiopian exports to China rose by 140%. Saudi Arabia Purchased 100,000 acres of Ethiopian land to produce food for export back to the kingdom.

41. To Conclude…

42. Q&A Period

43. Works Cited African Development Bank. “IMF/ World Bank HIPC Document for Ethiopia.”. African Development Bank. Online. Accessed September 2011http://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Financial-Information/ADB- BD-WP-2002-12-EN-ETHIOPIA-HIPC-APPROVAL-DOCUMENT.PDF Berry, Leonard. 2003. Land Degradation in Ethiopia: its Extent and Impact. Global Mechanism, UN Convention to Combat Desertification. Bertelsmann Stiftung, BTI 2010 — Ethiopia Country Report. Gütersloh: Bertelsmann Stiftung, 2009. Chamberlin, Jordan and Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse. 2009. Crop Production in Ethiopia: A Spatial-Structural Analysis. International Food Policy Research Institute ESSP II/EDRI seminar 16 Mar 2009. “Buying Farmland Abroad: Outsourcings Third Wave”. The Economist. May 21st 2009. Online. Accessed September 2011. http://www.economist.com/node/13692889?story_id=13692889 Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research. “Who We Are”. CGIAR. Online. Accessed September 2011 http://www.cgiar.org/who/index.html Davison, William. “India Investment in Ethiopia May Double to $10 Billion by 2015, Meles Says” Bloomberg. May 25, 2011. Online. Accessed September 2011. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-25/india-investment-in-ethiopia-may-double-to- 10-billion-by-2015-meles-says.html England, Andrew and Javier Blas. “Arable Land, the new gold rush” Afrik-News. August 20 th, 2008. Online. Accessed September 2011. http://www.afrik-news.com/article14301.html Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise. 2011. Web. 24 Sept. 2011. http://egtemis.com/. Food and Agriculture Organization. Statistics Division http://www.fao.org/economic/ess/ess-fs fs-data/ess-fadata/en/ Accessed: Sept. 25, 2011

44. Works Cited FAO. “Projects in Ethiopia”. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Online. Accessed Sept 2011 hcoin.fao.org/cms/world/ethiopia/Projects.html. Freedom House. 'Freedom in the World: Country Report, Ethiopia'. http://www.freedomhouse.org/template.cfm?page=22&country=8036&year=2011 (accessed September 27 2011) Global Advice Network. 'Business Anti-corruption Portal: Ethiopia Country Profile'. http://www.business-anti-corruption.com/country-profiles/sub-saharan- africa/ethiopia/general-information/ (accessed September 27 2011) International Food Policy Research Institute, “2010 Global Hunger Index.” http://www.ifpri.org/publication/2010-global-hunger-index. Accessed Sept. 27, 2011 Joachim von Braun, Tolulope Olofinbiyi (2007). Case Study #7-4, "Famine and Food Insecurity in Ethiopia". In: Per Pinstrup-Andersen and Fuzhi Cheng (editors), "Food Policy for Developing Countries: Case Studies." http://cip.cornell.edu/dns.gfs/1200428184 Leicht,Lotte. 'EU should not tolerate Ethiopia's repression'. Published in European Voice. Published online by Human Rights Watch. http://www.hrw.org/en/news/2009/02/18/eu- should-not-tolerate-ethiopias-repression (accessed September 28 2011) "Major Objectives of the FEAC." The Federal Ethics and Anti-corruption Commission. 2011. Web. 24 Sept. 2011. http://www.feac.gov.et/web_collection/main_objectives_feac_english_starter.htm. Paarlberg, Robert M., "Governance and Food Security in an Age of Globalization". Food, Agriculture, and the Environment Discussion Paper 36, International Food Policy Research Institute. 2002. http://www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/pubs/2020/dp/2020dp36.pdf Professional Alliance for Development Ethiopia. 2011. Web. 24 Sept. 2011. http://www.padet.org.et/about_padet/about_padet.html.

45. Works Cited The Heritage Foundation and the Wall Street Journal. '2011 Index of Economic Freedom.' http://www.heritage.org/index/Country/Ethiopia (accessed September 28 2011). Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum, Paul Dorosh and Sinafikeh Asrat. 2011. Crop Production in Ethiopia: Regional Patterns and Trends. Ethiopia Strategy Support Program II (ESSP II) ESSP II Working Paper No. 0016 March 2011 Int’l Food Policy Research Institute. Tefera, Derbrew. “Ethiopia offers India Farmland for investment” The Economic Times. Feb 2, 2011. Online. Accessed September 2011. http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2011-02-02/news/28432446_1_indian- investors-cultivable-land-indian-exports. Transparency International. 'Global Corruption Report 2009: Africa and the Middle East'. 2009. http://www.transparency.org/publications/gcr/gcr_2009#6.1 United Nations Development Programme. “Ethiopian Crop Yields to Get Boost From UNDP, Gates Foundation.” News release, 21 July, 2011. UNICEF, “Statistics.” http://www.unicef.org/infobycountry/ethiopia_statistics.html Accessed Sept. 26, 2011 UNDP, “Ethiopia: Country profile of human development indicators.” http://hdrstats.undp.org/en/countries/profiles/ETH.html Accessed Sept. 28, 2011 UNDP, “Human Development Report 2009.” http://hdrstats.undp.org/en/indicators/96.html Accessed Sept. 27, 2011 U.S. Department of Agriculture. Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, Foreign Agricultural Service http://www.fas.usda.gov/pecad2/highlights/2002/10/ethiopia/baseline/Eth_Crop_Production.htm