1. Enfield Skills & Employment Strategy Paul Convery Research & Consultancy Paul Convery 8 th July 2009 One year on – Enfield’s skills and employment strategy revisited

2. Enfield Skills & Employment Strategy Paul Convery Research & Consultancy The economic vision for Enfield To increase jobs and wealth in the Borough: –tackle worklessness and poverty –create a more socially cohesive Borough –residents secure a good standard of living –residents achieve their ambitions and goals This requires us to: –foster enterprise –raise skills –increase employment throughout the Borough But this was a vision devised in “good times” …

3. Enfield Skills & Employment Strategy Paul Convery Research & Consultancy But … recession has struck We start this recession with more workless claimants than previous recession JSA totals rose rapidly between May 2008 and May 2009 the number of other claimants (IB/IS) has remained fairly static employment rate was already declining However … so far there is: Not much worsening of defaults on Council Tax and business rates No noticeable increase in demand for Council or RSL housing Limited evidence of mortgage default and forced sales But there are risks ahead: This year’s school and college leavers face a very uncertain future Local economy is already weak … and recessions tend to have “lagging” effects Worst wards performing worse: the gap is widening

4. Enfield Skills & Employment Strategy Paul Convery Research & Consultancy The “Enfield paradox” … the Borough did not fully benefit from London’s rapid growth in the last decade or so … … but we may suffer disproportionately from the downturn. Preparing for the recovery So, the Borough and its residents may have to work even harder to: Retain existing businesses in Enfield and help them survive Attract new businesses to replace the inevitable losses Make our “place shaping” ambitions succeed Compete for available jobs elsewhere in London – especially central London and (especially) … … to equip our young people with the skills and knowledge to gain a foothold in work

5. Enfield Skills & Employment Strategy Paul Convery Research & Consultancy JSA count has risen by 3,400 – which is a 64% increase (exactly conforms to the London average)

6. Enfield Skills & Employment Strategy Paul Convery Research & Consultancy Largest absolute increases are in the Borough’s disadvantaged eastern wards. But, these wards have quite small proportionate increases – because they already had much higher JSA totals to start with

7. Enfield Skills & Employment Strategy Paul Convery Research & Consultancy We already had severe problems … Employment rate was already worsening – fell from 72% in late 2006 to around 67% by late 2008 Total number of claimants represented just over 14% of all working age adults (about 20,000 people) in mid 2008 … so is around 23,500 In worst neighbourhoods, claimant rates of more than 30% 29% of all households in the Borough (34,500) receive HB/CTB: in eight wards a third or more of households receiving HB/CTB … in Edmonton Green, it is just over 50%

8. Enfield Skills & Employment Strategy Paul Convery Research & Consultancy The Enfield economy We have a growing, changing but under-performing local economy: –Few knowledge intensive sectors –Relatively low output and productivity –Public sector dominates –Small and medium sized firms –Low business formation rates –Limited presence of London’s growth sectors –Employers are not prepared for future change

9. Enfield Skills & Employment Strategy Paul Convery Research & Consultancy The population is changing … and is under- employed Population is growing quickly – and is younger Increasingly diverse … low employment rates Employment rate gap in the range of between: –5,000 (match London employment rate) –Or 12,000 (align with GB employment rate) –Or 22,000 (achieve 80% employment rate) Young adults, women and disabled have low employment rates Over 25,000 residents want-to-work (mostly inactive) Geographical concentration has worsened

10. Enfield Skills & Employment Strategy Paul Convery Research & Consultancy

11. Enfield Skills & Employment Strategy Paul Convery Research & Consultancy

12. Enfield Skills & Employment Strategy Paul Convery Research & Consultancy

13. Enfield Skills & Employment Strategy Paul Convery Research & Consultancy

14. Enfield Skills & Employment Strategy Paul Convery Research & Consultancy

15. Enfield Skills & Employment Strategy Paul Convery Research & Consultancy

16. Enfield Skills & Employment Strategy Paul Convery Research & Consultancy

17. Enfield Skills & Employment Strategy Paul Convery Research & Consultancy … and the population is lower skilled Very low employment rates for unskilled … 48,000 (27%) are at level 1 or less Very high employment rates for level 4+ … but fewer of them Over the next decade, new jobs will require higher skills – both in the Borough and beyond: –A third will be at Level 4 and a half will be for top 3 SOCs –skilled trades will make-up only 7% of all new jobs –machine operators and elementary occupations will account for another 15%. –A fifth will be OK for no-low skilled –Retail/wholesale, hospitality, business services and public sector London economy will require more level 3 and 4

18. Enfield Skills & Employment Strategy Paul Convery Research & Consultancy

19. Enfield Skills & Employment Strategy Paul Convery Research & Consultancy

20. Enfield Skills & Employment Strategy Paul Convery Research & Consultancy

21. Enfield Skills & Employment Strategy Paul Convery Research & Consultancy

22. Enfield Skills & Employment Strategy Paul Convery Research & Consultancy Action Plan: “stimulate employers” Support inward investment and business growth to increase demand –Strengthen LEPs –Expand Train to Gain –Increase Skills Pledge firms to 50% –Simplify engagement with businesses –Increase Level 2, Level 3 and progression to HE –Promote apprenticeships –Increase employer engagement in primary and 14- 19 –Strengthen business leadership Borough-wide and locally

23. Enfield Skills & Employment Strategy Paul Convery Research & Consultancy Action Plan: “helping people” Increase skills and employability in disadvantaged areas and people –Reduce number of benefit claimants in worst areas –Concentrate on priority population groups –Deliver ULV “North London Pledge” –Integrated service offer – Enfield JobNet –Deliver Pathways to Work –Deliver higher volumes of Skills for Life and Skills for Jobs

24. Enfield Skills & Employment Strategy Paul Convery Research & Consultancy Action Plan: “fixing the wiring” Better co-ordination, planning, information sharing and networking –Joint commissioning plan –Partners and providers collaborate to seek new funding –Data sharing between partners –Networking between providers of 14-19 and adult services –Strengthen Enfield Observatory’s market intelligence role

25. Enfield Skills & Employment Strategy Paul Convery Research & Consultancy What might schools and colleges do? Gain access to adequate information about the emerging labour market and the expectations of employers Consider formally adopting a strategic intention to equip pupils & students with the skills required in a more knowledge-based and higher technology working future Consider a more formal reporting of work-related offer in School Improvement Plans and record successes in the self evaluation Identify further ways to engage with employers in addition to existing connections Consider how the current school curriculum be adjusted to make sure that pupils & students engaged in more academic courses also benefit from a base of vocational knowledge Develop closer involvement of employers in their day to day activities so that students get a clearer understanding of the world of work? Consider other ways (in addition to Diplomas) of offering an alternative curriculum work-focussed offer within the 14-19 phase?