Presentation on theme: "2014 Elections in Maryland Dan Nataf Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues, Anne Arundel Community College www2.aacc.edu/csli Nov. 13/20, 2014."— Presentation transcript:
2014 Elections in Maryland Dan Nataf Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues, Anne Arundel Community College www2.aacc.edu/csli Nov. 13/20, 2014
Governor’s Race: Primary showed early divisions among Democrats – anti-incumbent sentiment Democrats%Republicans% Brown51Hogan43 Gansler24Craig29 Mizeur22Lollar16 George12 Turnout24%
Governor’s Race: General elections shows that Hogan win still the exception statewide General Gov. %VoteHogan - Dem Brown47.2818,890 Hogan51884,400+65,510 Franchot62.7%1,061,267-176,867 Frosh55.8%935,846-51,446
Maryland General Assembly: 2010 vs. 2014 *Democratic hegemony eroded but intact Democrats20102014Republicans20102014 House of Delegates 98 (69.5%) 93 (66%) House of Delegates 43 (30.5%) 48 (34%) Senate35 (74.5%) 33 (70%) Senate12 (26.5%) 14 (30%)
Senate – 30, 31, 32 Astle sneaks by Quinn in D30DeGrange sweeps in D32
AA County: Council Districts Smith narrow win in D1
Council: Early vs Election Day DistrictEV Gap (D-R)ED Gap (D-R)Loss ED 115.6% (18.4%)* -2.7%18.2% 2-3.1% (21.7%)* -12.8%9.7% 3-35.7% (15.7%)* -48.7%13.0% 417.5% (23%)* 13.2%4.3% 51.1% (24%)* -9.1%10.2% 613.9% (25%)* -1.9%15.9% EV as percentage of total vote
Maryland House of Delegates: 2010 vs. 2014 Contested, Solid and Uncontested Seats by Party 58/79% of Rep seats were/are solid or uncontested 81/83% of Dem seats were/are solid or uncontested - 74% of all seats in 2014 were solid or contested counting both parties
Maryland Senate: 2010 vs. 2014 86/89% of Dem seats were/are solid or uncontested - 89% of all seats in 2014 were solid or contested counting both parties 92/93% of Rep seats were/are solid or uncontested
County Executive Voters – Johnson Vote Johnson losses heightened both due to Dem defections but very low score among centrist groups
County Executive Voters – How informed? As with the Governor’s race, Republican leaning categories were more informed.
County Executive Issues Dems still favor quality of life and equal oppty issues Reps still favor taxes, fiscal and economic issues
County Executive – Reaching Voters FactorOverallJohnsonSchuh Cases% % of total Endorsed by some person or group I respect 101231112 Newspaper stories about candidate 97221012 Information from the Internet 7818711 Endorsed by a newspaper like the Capital, Washington Post or the Sun 461146 Literature received in the mail 421037 The candidate or a representative came to my door to introduce him/herself 40918 Paid ads on TV 18413 Paid ads in the newspapers 12311 Total 434100 --
Other Local Races: Adams/Leitess Partisan polarization more predictable for this race.
County Council 5: Vote mostly for or against your candidate – Armstrong Voters Race is determined mostly by Peroutka – love or hate!
Other observations about local races County Council: Dem/Rep district pattern holds (1, 4, 6 Dem; 3, 5, 7 Rep – with 2 swing) State Senate – No change 3 Dem/2 Rep – although margin in District 30 very small House of Delegates – Democrats gain in 31a – otherwise all incumbents return; Sid Saab and Megan Simonaire are new faces for Reps; Mark Chang for Dems Incumbents returned for all other positions. Only Democratic countywide seat now is Sheriff.
Demographics: Gender Gender gap – Dems least supported by men, not compensated by strong support from women.
Demographics: Age by Dem Cands. Older groups support Reps. Dems support varies among younger groups
Demographics: Race Whites favor Reps nearly 2-1 Blacks nearly unanimous in support of Dems
Conclusions Election Environment: Hostile to Democrats /Obama – losses inevitable, damage control. But impact on Brown much greater than on other Dems running statewide and in MGA. Party registration creates overconfidence, false sense of inevitability among Democrats. Turnout differences compensate. Candidate – Invites comparisons to Obama – race, rollout of health exchange Web site, tied to O’Malley, curse of Lt. Govr…Johnson unable to distinguish himself from Brown – gets predicted low vote Campaign: Campaign message matters – Democrats create targeted appeals, lack broader vision or economic message – focus on core Democratic issues – which don’t have much saliency to swing voters Turnout: Ground game matters – Methods become diffused, important in close elections – shape turnout in a low turnout environment. Precedent? An African-American running mate prerequisite for Gov. Republican upswing?– Schuh, Pantelides, Hogan – gains in MGA?