Presentation on theme: "2014 Elections in Maryland Dan Nataf Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues, Anne Arundel Community College www2.aacc.edu/csli Nov. 13/20, 2014."— Presentation transcript:
2014 Elections in Maryland Dan Nataf Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues, Anne Arundel Community College www2.aacc.edu/csli Nov. 13/20, 2014
Governor’s Race: Primary showed early divisions among Democrats – anti-incumbent sentiment Democrats%Republicans% Brown51Hogan43 Gansler24Craig29 Mizeur22Lollar16 George12 Turnout24%
Governor’s Race: General elections shows that Hogan win still the exception statewide General Gov. %VoteHogan - Dem Brown ,890 Hogan51884,400+65,510 Franchot62.7%1,061, ,867 Frosh55.8%935,846-51,446
Maryland General Assembly: 2010 vs *Democratic hegemony eroded but intact Democrats Republicans House of Delegates 98 (69.5%) 93 (66%) House of Delegates 43 (30.5%) 48 (34%) Senate35 (74.5%) 33 (70%) Senate12 (26.5%) 14 (30%)
District 33 House of Delegates
House of Delegates – 30, 31, 32
Senate – 30, 31, 32 Astle sneaks by Quinn in D30DeGrange sweeps in D32
AA County: Council Districts Smith narrow win in D1
Council: Early vs Election Day DistrictEV Gap (D-R)ED Gap (D-R)Loss ED 115.6% (18.4%)* -2.7%18.2% 2-3.1% (21.7%)* -12.8%9.7% % (15.7%)* -48.7%13.0% 417.5% (23%)* 13.2%4.3% 51.1% (24%)* -9.1%10.2% 613.9% (25%)* -1.9%15.9% EV as percentage of total vote
Maryland House of Delegates: 2010 vs Contested, Solid and Uncontested Seats by Party 58/79% of Rep seats were/are solid or uncontested 81/83% of Dem seats were/are solid or uncontested - 74% of all seats in 2014 were solid or contested counting both parties
Maryland Senate: 2010 vs /89% of Dem seats were/are solid or uncontested - 89% of all seats in 2014 were solid or contested counting both parties 92/93% of Rep seats were/are solid or uncontested
Trends in Registered Voters
Turnout by County/Lean:
Trends in Turnout by Party:
Trends in Voting: Governor’s Races (Raw Vote)
Trends in Voting: Governor’s Races Vote by Party
Trends in Voting: Governor’s Races Party Change
Change in Dem Vote by County Baltimore County and Mont. County accounted for biggest Dem losses.
Change in Dem Vote by County Losses are largest in Republican areas.
Franchot, Frosh, Brown by County
Counties Where a Dem Won Statewide
Poll Results: Level of Interest in Gov. Race by Party (CSLI survey) 10 point advantage to Republicans; unaffiliated with lowest interest
How informed about issues in race (Exit Poll) Hogan sympathetic groups with double digit lead over most Brown sympathetic groups
Political Leanings: Exit Poll Dems somewhat more inclined to be independent
Political Leanings: Vote for Governor Democrats much more likely to defect than Republicans; independents lean to Hogan
Defections by Party: Exit Poll Virtually NO Rep. defection; nearly quarter of all Dems defect
Defections by Leaning: Governor’s Race (CSLI survey)
Issues Overall (Exit Poll) Most salient issues leaned favorably to Hogan/Reps. Education is the big exception.
Issues by Candidate Quality of life and equal opportunity issues for Dems
Issues by Political Lean
Issues and Democrats for Brown/Hogan and Republicans for Hogan: Exit Poll
Anne Arundel Results: – Governor’s Race
AA County – Predicts Minimum Democratic Vote Needed for Statewide Win – 38%
Including Shay GAP 39573
Governor’s Race Predicts CE Outcomes: Republicans
Governor’s Race Predicts CE Outcomes: Dems
County Executive Voters – Johnson Vote Johnson losses heightened both due to Dem defections but very low score among centrist groups
County Executive Voters – How informed? As with the Governor’s race, Republican leaning categories were more informed.
County Executive Issues Dems still favor quality of life and equal oppty issues Reps still favor taxes, fiscal and economic issues
County Executive – Reaching Voters FactorOverallJohnsonSchuh Cases% % of total Endorsed by some person or group I respect Newspaper stories about candidate Information from the Internet Endorsed by a newspaper like the Capital, Washington Post or the Sun Literature received in the mail The candidate or a representative came to my door to introduce him/herself Paid ads on TV Paid ads in the newspapers Total
Other Local Races: Adams/Leitess Partisan polarization more predictable for this race.
County Council 5: Vote mostly for or against your candidate – Armstrong Voters Race is determined mostly by Peroutka – love or hate!
Other observations about local races County Council: Dem/Rep district pattern holds (1, 4, 6 Dem; 3, 5, 7 Rep – with 2 swing) State Senate – No change 3 Dem/2 Rep – although margin in District 30 very small House of Delegates – Democrats gain in 31a – otherwise all incumbents return; Sid Saab and Megan Simonaire are new faces for Reps; Mark Chang for Dems Incumbents returned for all other positions. Only Democratic countywide seat now is Sheriff.
Demographics: Gender Gender gap – Dems least supported by men, not compensated by strong support from women.
Demographics: Age by Dem Cands. Older groups support Reps. Dems support varies among younger groups
Demographics: Race Whites favor Reps nearly 2-1 Blacks nearly unanimous in support of Dems
Demographics: Education Higher ed favors Dems
Conclusions Election Environment: Hostile to Democrats /Obama – losses inevitable, damage control. But impact on Brown much greater than on other Dems running statewide and in MGA. Party registration creates overconfidence, false sense of inevitability among Democrats. Turnout differences compensate. Candidate – Invites comparisons to Obama – race, rollout of health exchange Web site, tied to O’Malley, curse of Lt. Govr…Johnson unable to distinguish himself from Brown – gets predicted low vote Campaign: Campaign message matters – Democrats create targeted appeals, lack broader vision or economic message – focus on core Democratic issues – which don’t have much saliency to swing voters Turnout: Ground game matters – Methods become diffused, important in close elections – shape turnout in a low turnout environment. Precedent? An African-American running mate prerequisite for Gov. Republican upswing?– Schuh, Pantelides, Hogan – gains in MGA?