1. Business Optimism Index Kuwait Q1 2010
Presented by Dun & Bradstreet South Asia Middle East Ltd (D&B) Muthanna Investment Company (MIC)

2. Business Optimism Index
The D&B Business Optimism Index is recognized world over as an indicator which ascertains the pulse of the business community
Provides insight into the short-term outlook of businesses on sales, profit growth, investment etc
Provides analysis of major trends, outlook and issues concerning businesses

3. Survey
Sample of business units representing Kuwait’s economy was selected
500 business owners and senior executives across business units were surveyed
Survey conducted during December 2009 for the 1st quarter of 2010
Respondents are asked questions about their expectations on relevant business parameters
Survey also captures respondent feedback on current business conditions

4. World Economic Outlook
Real GDP Growth Q (yoy)
Global Manufacturing PMI December 2009
Source: IMF
Source: J P Morgan
Global economic recovery led by emerging markets such as India and China
US economy expanded while Euro zone & UK posted negative growth, if at a lesser annual rate of decline
Global Manufacturing PMI indicates renewed expansion across all major economies

5. Kuwait’s economy
Kuwait’s GDP to register a growth rate of 3.2% after contracting by 1.6% in 2009; Non-oil GDP to grow at 4.1% in 2010
Recovery in the oil prices has helped Kuwait post a budget surplus of US$ 22 bn for the first eight months of the fiscal year
GDP Outlook
Source: IMF
Source: OPEC

6. Business Optimism Indices : Q1 2010
Five out of six business parameters in the non-hydrocarbon sector register improvement in Q1
Expectations particularly optimistic regarding New Orders
Selling price outlook within the hydrocarbon sector improves after two quarters amidst higher oil prices

7. Business Optimism Indices Trend

8. Manufacturing sector
Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index
Manufacturing Sector
GDP
13%
Global Manufacturing PMI at 44 month high in December showing renewed expansion
In Kuwait, average optimism levels roughly unchanged from previous quarter
A majority of businesses foresee improved order book status during Q1 while 48% of companies expect higher profits
Selling price outlook stronger but a substantial 64% expect no change in selling prices in Q1 2010

9. Residential construction outlook 2008-13 Compound annual growth (%)
Construction sector
Residential construction outlook
Compound annual growth (%)
Construction Sector
Global construction sector currently driven by infrastructure spending as commercial property undergoes correction
In Kuwait, optimism regarding New Orders, Level of Selling Prices, Number of Employees and Level of Stock parameters improve substantially in Q1 2010
66% of the respondents expect higher sales, 71% foresee an increase in new orders while 68% expect higher profits in Q4 2009

10. Trade, restaurants & hotels sector
Global trade & hospitality sector is expected to pick up in 2010, but recovery will be slow as consumers confidence remains weak
In Kuwait, the sales and profitability outlook has weakened in Q while order book expectations and hiring plans have firmed

11. Transport & communications sector
GDP
Global transport & communications sector expected to witness gradual recovery in 2010
In Kuwait, expectations of higher sales lift profitability outlook
Meanwhile, a surge in new orders is leading to increased hiring
67% expect higher sales, 75% foresee improved order book status and 67% higher profits

12. Finance & Business Services Global Services Purchasing Managers' Index
Finance, insurance, real estate & business services sector
Finance & Business Services
Global Services Purchasing Managers' Index
The Global Services PMI recovery has leveled out following extended recovery
Kuwait’s service sector bullish about demand with increased optimism regarding Volume of Sales and New Orders
61% expect higher sales, 60% foresee increase in fresh orders 61% expect higher net profits in Q1 2010

13. OPEC Monthly Basket Price Business Optimism Indices
Business Optimism Indices Trends : Hydrocarbon sector
OPEC Monthly Basket Price
Business Optimism Indices
Source: OPEC
48% of the firms expect selling prices to increase, 60% anticipate a rise in employee count
63% foresee higher profitability in Q1 2010
Half of the oil & gas respondents expect selling prices to improve in Q1
60% anticipate a rise in employee count

14. Other Key Highlights
Availability of finance and direct costs cited as leading business concerns by the non-hydrocarbon sector
41% of the business units freeze investment outlays while 38% to invest in business expansion
45% of the business units in the non-hydrocarbon sector expect borrowing conditions to remain unchanged
Project delays identified as the chief concern by 69% of the units in the hydrocarbon sector

15. Conclusion
Business outlook for Q improves across all sectors with improved global economic condition
Optimism in transport & communications sector stronger as international trade outlook is expected to improve further in 2010
Improving liquidity in the international financial markets lifts optimism levels in Finance & business services sector
Hydrocarbon sector optimistic on the back of strong oil prices and improving demand conditions

16. THANK YOU