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Saudi Arabia Business Optimism Index – Q3 2009 Presented by Dun & Bradstreet National Commercial Bank.

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Presentation on theme: "Saudi Arabia Business Optimism Index – Q3 2009 Presented by Dun & Bradstreet National Commercial Bank."— Presentation transcript:

1 Saudi Arabia Business Optimism Index – Q3 2009 Presented by Dun & Bradstreet National Commercial Bank

2 The D&B Business Optimism Index is recognized world over as an indicator which ascertains the pulse of the business community Provides insight into the short-term outlook of the business units on sales, profit growth, investment etc Provides analysis of major trends, outlook and issues concerning the business units Business Optimism Index

3 A sample of business units representing the economy of Saudi Arabia was selected from D&B database 500 business owners and senior executives were surveyed Survey conducted during June 2009 for the July – September 2009 quarter Respondents were questioned about their expectations on relevant business parameters Survey also captured respondent feedback on current business conditions Survey

4 World Economic Outlook IMF revises world economic growth downwards to -1.4% in 2009, recovery expected in 2010 with 2.5% growth GDP of United States expected to contract by 2.6% in year 2009, 0.8% growth in 2010 Recent emergence of green shoots have boosted sentiments all across the world; stock markets shows recovery from their multi-year lows Middle East growth to rebound to 3.7% in 2010 Real GDP Growth (%)World Stock markets

5 Saudi Arabia GDP Saudi Arabia is projected to register real GDP contraction of 0.9% in 2009, growth for 2010 is projected at 2.9% Oil sector’s real GDP is predicted to contract sharply by 10.5% in the current year, due to large production cuts and fall in oil prices Non-oil GDP growth is projected at 3.3% this year, and is expected to improve marginally to 3.5% in 2010 Source: IMF World Economic Outlook

6 Business Optimism Indices: Q3 2009 Marked improvement in optimism for all parameters in Non hydrocarbon sector Decline in confidence regarding the level of selling prices in Hydrocarbon sector

7 Business Optimism Indices Trends : Non Hydrocarbon Sector

8 Manufacturing Sector Global economic sentiments are improving; the Global Manufacturing PMI stands at 46.9 in June Saudi Arabia’s manufacturing firms are upbeat about sales and new orders. Over 70% of the companies expect an increase on both parameters The sector is least optimistic about their selling prices: 42% of the firms anticipate a fall in prices in Q3 Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index Source: J P Morgan and market economics in association with ISM and IFPSM GDP 18%

9 Construction Sector Global construction industry has been hit hard due to the credit crunch and cancellation & postponement of new orders Modest recovery expected in 2010; key growth sector to be infrastructure construction A significant number of construction firms expect new orders, higher sales and plan to augment employee numbers in Q3 Infrastructure construction growth 2008-13 Compound annual growth (%) 12% GDP

10 Trade & Hospitality Sector The global retail trade sector has been hit due to reduced consumer purchasing power and uncertain employment environment Saudi Arabia’s trade and hospitality sector is most optimistic among all sectors regarding new orders in Q3 2009 Majority of the firms (83%) expect selling prices to remain unchanged GDP 13%

11 Logistics & Communication Sector Global transport sector has been hit by sharply declining global trade volumes; recovery expected in 2010 58% of the firms in this sector expect sales to rise, 67% anticipate an increase in new orders 48% of the firms in this sector plan to increase workforce in Q3 58% of the respondents anticipate a rise in profits GDP 11%

12 Finance and Business Services Sector The global services sector continues to contract with PMI for the month of June at 47.4 The government of Saudi Arabia has lent strong support to its financial sector Majority of firms expect higher sales, new orders and net profits in Q3 2009 72% anticipate no change in selling prices; 39% expect to increase employee count in Q3 GDP 15%

13 Business Optimism Indices Trends : Hydrocarbon Sector GDP 31%

14 For 70% of the respondents in manufacturing sector, the prices of raw materials are still a major concern Overall, 43% of the units in non hydrocarbon sector are facing shortage of finance Robust business expansion plans; 36% of the respondents in non-hydrocarbon sector will increase investment in business expansion 50% of companies in the hydrocarbon sector are facing project delays 55% of businesses in the non-hydrocarbon sector and 70% in the hydrocarbon sector expect global economic recovery in 2010 Other Key Highlights

15 Conclusion With recent signs of global economic revival, demand level in Saudi Arabia is expected to increase; Manufacturing and Trade sector most optimistic Construction sector to benefit from government’s support to boost infrastructure spending Activity in finance & business services sector is expected to improve with signs of increased liquidity in the domestic and international markets Downward pressure on prices of goods and services to subside. Inflation edged up for the first time this year in May to 5.5% (April 5.2%) Hydrocarbon sector uncertain on recent crude price rally as demand is expected to remain weak in the medium term


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