Presentation on theme: "Storybook 01: South Africa’s Economic Output STANLIB Economics."— Presentation transcript:
Storybook 01: South Africa’s Economic Output STANLIB Economics
Breakdown of SA GDP by sector (2012) The industrial base of SA has been under pressure for many years. The services sector has out- performed and represents around 70% of the economy.
Breakdown of SA GDP by province (2011 ) Economic activity remains concentrated in Johannesburg, Cape Town and Durban. Together, these three provinces represent almost 70% of the economy.
%q/q s.a.a.r SA real GDP growth SA economic growth has slowed noticeably in recent quarters due to a combination of weak global growth, higher domestic inflation and a moderation in fiscal stimulus
%q/q s.a.a.r, 4-quarter moving average SA real GDP growth year-on-year SA GDP growth has slowed to an average of around 2.0% to 2.5% after a reasonable economic recovery in 2010 and 2011. Ideally, SA should look to achieve a sustainable growth rate of above 4%
SA GDP index Index 2006 = 100, constant prices SA Economy is the largest it has ever been in both nominal and real terms. Although SA GDP has recovered from the 2009 recession, the growth rate is now slowing and employment remains below the pre-crisis level.
Index Construction Finance Transport/Communication Retail Manufacturing Mining Agriculture Best performing industry sectors in SA Construction has been the best performing sector over the past 10 years, boosted by the World Cup. Building and investment activity has since moderated significantly. Mining activity is essentially unchanged over the past 15 years, which is dismal. They services economy has shown steady growth
SA manufacturing and mining activity vs retail activity Index SA retail activity SA manufacturing activity SA mining activity SA gold production SA economic recovery has been consumption based rather than production based. SA Gold output has been in structural decline for many years
% of total SA manufacturing production as % of GDP South Africa’s manufacturing sector has been in structural decline for the past 20 years
%q/q s.a.a.r, 4-quarter moving average SA agricultural output South Africa’s agricultural output is seasonal in nature, but has essentially trended sideways for more than 10 years, despite the need for more food production.
%q/q s.a.a.r, 4-quarter moving average SA construction output South Africa’s construction activity slowed sharply in 2011, off a relatively high base. The industry has become somewhat more optimistic about a possible improvement in business conditions in recent quarters, but infrastructural activity needs to improve.
%q/q s.a.a.r, 4-quarter moving average SA finance and business services output The financial and business services sector is the largest component of the private sector, but has been losing momentum recently.
%q/q s.a.a.r, 4-quarter moving average SA manufacturing output South Africa’s manufacturing sector had a dismal start to 2013, partly due to the timing of public holidays. Overall, manufacturing activity is still not back to pre-crisis levels.
%q/q s.a.a.r, 4-quarter moving average SA mining output Mining output remains extremely volatile, impacted by numerous work stoppages or disruptions. The sector is a very large employer.
%q/q s.a.a.r, 4-quarter moving average SA retail and wholesale trade output Consumer activity is slowly losing momentum, after a good recovery in 2010 and 2011. The slowdown is driven by a fall-off in household income growth.
%q/q s.a.a.r, 4-quarter moving average SA growth in net exports South Africa’s net exports are expected to improve over the coming quarters, mainly due to a moderation in import growth. Recent rand weakness should restrict import volumes, but also boost export volumes somewhat.
Index, 1960 = 100, GDP at constant prices SA GDP growth vs population growth Population GDP, real South Africa’s economic growth in real terms, has outperformed the growth in the population, especially since 1994. Unfortunately, despite this out-performance, South Africa’s unemployment rate remains extremely high.
%y/y, real South Africa annual growth in GDP per person South Africa’s GDP per capita has improved meaningfully in the past 15 years. Unfortunately the income disparity remains extremely high by global standards.
Rand South Africa GDP per person South Africa’s income per capita has pushed higher in the past decade, but South Africa remains a middle income country by global standards
% of world GDP, nominal, Dollars South Africa share of world GDP Although South Africa is a member of the G20 and BRICS, the economy represents well less than 1% of the world economy. This percentage has not changed significantly in the past 30 years
Annual average % SA average GDP growth per decade After growing rapidly in the 1950s and 1960s, South Africa’s growth rate stalled in the late 1970s and most of the 1980s, hurt by escalating political turmoil. The growth rate pick-up in the 2000s, but has lacked momentum in recent years
%y/y SA GDP annual growth rate South Africa is forecast to grow by 2.2% in 2013, rising to around 3% in 2014. The expected pickup in growth is highly dependent on increased infrastructural spending as well as an improvement in the world economy
2013 estimate, % change Growth comparisons between emerging markets South Africa is considered a low growth economy by emerging market standards. China still leads the pack followed by some of the African economies such as Ghana and Nigeria
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