We think you have liked this presentation. If you wish to download it, please recommend it to your friends in any social system. Share buttons are a little bit lower. Thank you!
Presentation is loading. Please wait.
Published byJacob Higgins
Modified over 2 years ago
Dennis Turner, Chief Economist, HSBC UK Economic Outlook Bumping along…
Bumping along…. Dennis Turner HSBC Bank plc UK ECONOMIC OUTLOOK September 2010
THE RECESSION IS OVER
A deep recession
ALL THE LEVERS PULLED
Fiscal policy loosened
Government finances already in deficit
And deteriorated rapidly March 2010 Budget Report
Net debt (as a % of GDP) soaring Sustainable Investment Rule March 2010 Budget
Interest rates fall to historic lows
The lowest for over 300 years
And sterling plummeted
Sterling takes a pounding US dollar / £ (L axis) euro / £ (R axis )
STRAWS IN THE WIND
An end to destocking
Key PMI surveys in positive territory expansion contraction
Housing market fragile but improving rising falling House prices:
Exports starting to respond
A slow recovery is underway Forecast
a) Debt overhang
Consumers were the driving force
But underpinned by borrowing
b) Fragile consumer sector
So real earnings squeezed
A slower recovery than the last recession Forecast
Consumer confidence still weak Long-term average
c) Public sector spending cuts
Planned government spending cuts (£bn)
Govt receipts and spending (% of GDP)
d) Slow growth in key export markets
Euro Area growth forecast Euro Area Annual GDP growth:
Euro Area growth forecast 2 Euro Area Annual GDP growth:
Exports are starting to respond Volume of UK goods exports:
f) Banking and credit problems
An injection of £200bn via QE
Credit growth still very subdued Lending to households Lending to businesses Annualized growth in outstanding lending
Slow fragile growth
Inflation – higher for longer Forecast Target Range
And interest rates start to turn Forecast
The exchange rate is favourable Sterling weaker US$ / £ (L axis) euro / £ (R axis ) HSBC forecast
THE NEW AGENDA
Where will growth come from?
Manufacturing output Volume of output, Manufacturing output
Manufacturing vs services GDP Services Volume of output, Manufacturing
UK Economy in the Global Crisis – Recovery in Sight? Mark Berrisford-Smith HSBC Bank plc.
The Economic Outlook October 2011 Oliver Mangan Economic Research Unit AIB Global Treasury.
Recent Developments and Outlook Ministry of Finance January 2011 State of Israel Ministry of Finance.
1 Economic overview – moving from less worse to better 9 June 2009.
11 March 2010 Economic Overview – Stay calm and carry on.
Economic and fiscal outlook November 2011 Robert Chote Chairman.
Economic Outlook Peter Andrews Agent for Greater London, Bank of England Construction Industry Council 23 May 2012.
The Economy 2010 and How We Got Here Steven L. Cobb, Ph.D. UNT Center for Economic Education.
Master Template1 Global forecasting service Economic forecast summary - June 2012
The World Economy on a Precipice Uri Dadush Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Beijing, March 2009.
14 January 2010 Economic Overview – global recovery continues but lacks conviction.
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND Bank of Finland Bulletin 1/2013 Monetary policy and the global economy Governor Erkki Liikanen 14 March.
Research Department 1 Global Economic Crisis and the Israeli Economy Herzliya conference Dr. Karnit Flug Research Director, Bank of Israel February 2009.
The Economic Outlook: A Multi-speed Recovery in a Turbulent World Burlington Economic Development April 28, 2011 Glen Hodgson Senior.
Americas Debt Overhang Growth or Austerity, and other Policy Choices September 2009.
What is Macroeconomics? Macroeconomics (from prefix "macr(o)-" meaning "large" + "economics") is a branch of economics that deals with the performance,
Chinas Economy in the Post- Crisis World Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Washington DC, 17 March, 2010 Pieter Bottelier.
Is the Recession Over? Daryl Montgomery August 2009 Copyright 2009, All Rights Reserved.
AS/A2 The national economy The UK Economy: a Health Check How well has the economy been performing, and whats round the corner? The UK Economy: a Health.
Presentation to Cornwall Council Private Developers Forum 2 nd March 2012 Geoff Harding Deputy Agent for South West England.
PB Americas The Investment Landscape – August 2010 Private Banking Americas Investment Strategy & Advisory Group The Investment Landscape August 2010.
How big is the UK economy? The UK economy is the 7 th largest in the world, with an annual GDP of around £1.35 trillion, or £1350 billion, or £1,350,000,000,000.
© JR DeLisle, Ph. D. Economic, Capital and Real Estate Outlook 2010 presented to: IREM 2010 Forecast by: Jim DeLisle, Ph.D. December 4, 2009
Chapter 5 Investment and Saving. Equivalence of Saving and Investment One of the key relationships in the NIPA balance is that investment must always.
NFB Conference 2013: Construction Forecasts DR. NOBLE FRANCIS Economics Director.
Impact of the Global Slowdown on Developing Countries Jeffrey Lewis Senior Advisor, The World Bank Presentation to the OECD Global Forum on Development.
PB Americas The Investment Landscape – September 2010 Private Banking Americas Investment Strategy & Advisory Group The Investment Landscape September.
Neil Gibson Director of Regional Services Oxford Economics June 2009 The recession, the recovery and the response.
A years a long time in economics: The changing outlook for the Australian, WA and World economies Paul Flatau ETWA May 2010.
Unit 3: Aggregate Demand and Supply and Fiscal Policy 1.
© 2016 SlidePlayer.com Inc. All rights reserved.