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Dennis Turner, Chief Economist, HSBC UK Economic Outlook Bumping along…
Bumping along…. Dennis Turner HSBC Bank plc UK ECONOMIC OUTLOOK September 2010
THE RECESSION IS OVER
A deep recession
ALL THE LEVERS PULLED
Fiscal policy loosened
Government finances already in deficit
And deteriorated rapidly March 2010 Budget Report
Net debt (as a % of GDP) soaring Sustainable Investment Rule March 2010 Budget
Interest rates fall to historic lows
The lowest for over 300 years
And sterling plummeted
Sterling takes a pounding US dollar / £ (L axis) euro / £ (R axis )
STRAWS IN THE WIND
An end to destocking
Key PMI surveys in positive territory expansion contraction
Housing market fragile but improving rising falling House prices:
Exports starting to respond
A slow recovery is underway Forecast
a) Debt overhang
Consumers were the driving force
But underpinned by borrowing
b) Fragile consumer sector
So real earnings squeezed
A slower recovery than the last recession Forecast
Consumer confidence still weak Long-term average
c) Public sector spending cuts
Planned government spending cuts (£bn)
Govt receipts and spending (% of GDP)
d) Slow growth in key export markets
Euro Area growth forecast Euro Area Annual GDP growth:
Euro Area growth forecast 2 Euro Area Annual GDP growth:
Exports are starting to respond Volume of UK goods exports:
f) Banking and credit problems
An injection of £200bn via QE
Credit growth still very subdued Lending to households Lending to businesses Annualized growth in outstanding lending
Slow fragile growth
Inflation – higher for longer Forecast Target Range
And interest rates start to turn Forecast
The exchange rate is favourable Sterling weaker US$ / £ (L axis) euro / £ (R axis ) HSBC forecast
THE NEW AGENDA
Where will growth come from?
Manufacturing output Volume of output, Manufacturing output
Manufacturing vs services GDP Services Volume of output, Manufacturing
The UK Economy in Bumping along…. Dennis Turner Chief Economist, HSBC Bank plc.
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