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Dennis Turner, Chief Economist, HSBC UK Economic Outlook Bumping along…
Bumping along…. Dennis Turner HSBC Bank plc UK ECONOMIC OUTLOOK September 2010
THE RECESSION IS OVER
A deep recession
ALL THE LEVERS PULLED
Fiscal policy loosened
Government finances already in deficit
And deteriorated rapidly March 2010 Budget Report
Net debt (as a % of GDP) soaring Sustainable Investment Rule March 2010 Budget
Interest rates fall to historic lows
The lowest for over 300 years
And sterling plummeted
Sterling takes a pounding US dollar / £ (L axis) euro / £ (R axis )
STRAWS IN THE WIND
An end to destocking
Key PMI surveys in positive territory expansion contraction
Housing market fragile but improving rising falling House prices:
Exports starting to respond
A slow recovery is underway Forecast
a) Debt overhang
Consumers were the driving force
But underpinned by borrowing
b) Fragile consumer sector
So real earnings squeezed
A slower recovery than the last recession Forecast
Consumer confidence still weak Long-term average
c) Public sector spending cuts
Planned government spending cuts (£bn)
Govt receipts and spending (% of GDP)
d) Slow growth in key export markets
Euro Area growth forecast Euro Area Annual GDP growth:
Euro Area growth forecast 2 Euro Area Annual GDP growth:
Exports are starting to respond Volume of UK goods exports:
f) Banking and credit problems
An injection of £200bn via QE
Credit growth still very subdued Lending to households Lending to businesses Annualized growth in outstanding lending
Slow fragile growth
Inflation – higher for longer Forecast Target Range
And interest rates start to turn Forecast
The exchange rate is favourable Sterling weaker US$ / £ (L axis) euro / £ (R axis ) HSBC forecast
THE NEW AGENDA
Where will growth come from?
Manufacturing output Volume of output, 1950-2009 Manufacturing output
Manufacturing vs services GDP Services Volume of output, 1950-2009 Manufacturing
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