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Saudi Arabia Business Optimism Index – Q1 2011 Presented by Dun & Bradstreet South Asia Middle East Ltd. (D&B) National Commercial Bank (NCB)

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Presentation on theme: "Saudi Arabia Business Optimism Index – Q1 2011 Presented by Dun & Bradstreet South Asia Middle East Ltd. (D&B) National Commercial Bank (NCB)"— Presentation transcript:

1 Saudi Arabia Business Optimism Index – Q Presented by Dun & Bradstreet South Asia Middle East Ltd. (D&B) National Commercial Bank (NCB)

2 The D&B Business Optimism Index is recognized the World over as an indicator which reflects the pulse of the business community Provides insight into the short-term outlook of business units on key business parameters including sales, profits, pricing, headcount and investment Provides analysis of major trends and issues concerning the business community Business Optimism Index

3 Survey Sample of business units representing Saudi Arabias economy is selected 500 business owners and senior executives across business units are surveyed The Q survey was conducted during December 2010 Respondents are questioned about their expectations on relevant business parameters Survey also captures respondent feedback on current business conditions

4 Composite Business Optimism Index The Composite Index is calculated separately for the hydrocarbon and non hydrocarbon sector To provide further analysis of the non hydrocarbon sector Composite Indices are calculated for each of the five economic subsectors

5 World Economic Outlook Real GDP GrowthGlobal composite manufacturing & services PMI Source: JP Morgan and markit economics Global economy to be characterized by dual speed growth Advanced economies growth estimated at 2% in contrast emerging & developing economies to grow at 6.4% The global economic recovery continued in November; global composite PMI showed expansion for the sixteenth consecutive month Source: IMF October 2010 forecast, Q2 figures are actuals

6 Economy of Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabias non-oil sector projected to grow at 4.6% in 2011 In H nominal GDP grew by 24.1% over the H figure, due to recovery in oil prices and production and also on account of the low base effect of H Source: IMF Source: CDSI

7 Composite Business Optimism Indices Non-hydrocarbon sector optimism surges to an all time high Strong demand and profits expectations lift composite index for non-oil sector Hydrocarbon sector remains upbeat in Q Hydrocarbon sectorNon-hydrocarbon sector

8 Business Optimism Indices Trends : Non Hydrocarbon Sector

9 Manufacturing Sector The Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index hits a six month high of 55 in December Saudi manufacturing sector optimism surges Demand levels and profitability expectations bolster composite BOI Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index Source: JP Morgan and markit economics

10 Construction Sector The global construction sector will recover in 2011 Saudis construction sector optimism increases as profitability and hiring outlook strengthens

11 Trade & Hospitality Sector Improving consumer confidence will lift global trade & hospitality sector in 2011 Composite index rises to an all time high of 68 Level of Stock is the only parameter that registered a decline in its BOI score

12 Transport & Communications Sector Global shipping industry is recovering, air freight is also posting growth Saudi transport & communications sector optimism increases to its highest level due to surge in demand and profitability outlook

13 Finance, Real Estate & Business Services Sector The Global Services PMI for the month of December stands at 57.3, posting the fastest rate of expansion since July 2007 Saudi service sector optimism strengthens on rise in optimism in all five parameters Global Services Purchasing Managers Index Source: JP Morgan and markit economics

14 Business Optimism Indices Trends : Hydrocarbon Sector Oil prices increased in December on demand optimism The composite BOI index remains steady as hiring outlook increases, but selling price BOI drops OPEC monthly basket price Business Optimism Indices

15 Other Key Highlights Raw material costs is the leading concern for non hydrocarbon segment, 58% of the respondents feel it will influence operations Shortage of skilled labour is a concern for 21% of the business units in the non hydrocarbon sector 45% of companies in the non-hydrocarbon sector intend to invest in business expansion compared to 37% in Q % of companies in the hydrocarbon sector cite project delays as the major factor impacting their business

16 Conclusion Business optimism surges in all sectors in the Saudi Arabian economy Level of Stock index remains static versus prior quarter; all other indices post large gains as global and domestic economy recovers Inflationary pressures strengthen in Q Demand optimism strong for all sectors Hydrocarbon sector displays a surge in hiring outlook backed by steady oil prices and output

17 THANK YOU


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