1. IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Emission Inventories and Projections of NO x, NH 3, and NMVOC in East Asia Z. Klimont The 4th Workshop on the Transport of Air Pollutants in Asia (Model Intercomparison Study – MICS-Asia) October 22 – 23, 2001 IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

2. IIASA This project was developed in connection with: A study of large scale environmental problems in East Asia, funded by the Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI) The China-MAP program, funded by the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration) NASA.

3. IIASA Results are published in: Klimont, Z., Cofala, J., Schoepp, W., Amann, M., Streets, D.G., Ichikawa, Y., Fujita, S. (2001) Projections of SO 2, NO x, NH 3, and VOC Emissions in East Asia up to 2030. Water, Air, and Soil Pollution, vol.130:193-198 Klimont, Z., Streets, D.G., Gupta, S., Cofala, J., Fu, L., Ichikawa, Y. (2002) Anthropogenic emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds in China. Atmospheric Environment (accepted for publication) Klimont, Z. (2001) Current and Future Emissions of Ammonia in China. Proceedings of the 10 th International Emission Inventory Conference “One Atmosphere, One Inventory, Many Challenges”, Denver, CO, April 30 – May 3 rd, 2001. Paper available at: http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/conference/ei10/index.html http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/conference/ei10/index.html TRACE-P…emission data sets available…

4. IIASA Spatial* and temporal resolution Japan - Prefectures aggregated into six regions China - Provinces and megacities (incl. Hong-Kong) Republic of Korea - provinces aggregated into four regions Taiwan, ROC; Mongolia; DPR of Korea - country Russia - six Southern Siberian provinces ‘Oblast’ * - results presented in 1x1 degree grid Annual emissions - historical years 1990 and 1995 - projections for 2000, 2010, 2020 and 2030

5. IIASA Sectoral resolution NO x - five major economic sectors, further split into 17 categories) and 17 types of fuel; NH 3 - 14 categories; additionally, for seven livestock types emissions estimated at the ‘housing’ and ‘grazing’ stages. NMVOC - six primary sectors, further split into 42 to 61 secondary sectors (fuel combustion related sectors distinguish additionally relevant fuel types);

6. IIASA Methodology where: k,l,m,n- province, sector, fuel, abatement technology; E(P)- emissions of pollutant P, i.e. NO x, NMVOC ; A- activity rate; ef- unabated emission factor;  - removal efficiency;  - maximum application rate, and X- actual application rate of control technology n.

7. IIASA Methodology (NH3) where: i,j,k,l,m- province, animal type, abatement, year, fertilizer type; s- four stages, i.e. animal house, storage, application, grazing; L- animal population [thousands head]; FC- fertilizer consumption [Gg N/year]; FP- fertilizer production [Gg N/year]; ef- emission factor [kg NH 3 /animal; kg NH 3 /Mg N-fert.produced); nf- nitrogen loss per fertilizer [% of N content/100];  - removal efficiency; X- implementation rate of the abatement technique.

8. IIASA Activity data: Energy and Traffic Energy database: Based on the RAINS-Asia project Traffic: Total fuel consumption based on the vehicle ownership and mileage forecasts (also verified against national and international statistics); Mode/fuel split derived from available statistical data and experts’ judgment; Newly developed forecast takes into account differences in future regional developments.

9. IIASA Activity data: Industry and other VOC related Data for 1990, 1995 –distribution, processing and combustion of fuels linked to energy database in RAINS-Asia; –industry: national and international yearbooks, industrial statistics, surrogate statistics (problems with spatial distribution); –domestic solvent use, paint use, dry cleaning, industrial glue application, printing, degreasing: expert estimates, comparison to Europe and US, spatial distribution based on surrogate statistics, e.g. population, vehicle ownership. –missing data: pharmaceutical industry, parts of chemical industry.

10. IIASA Activity data: Industry and other… continued Projections: –distribution, processing and combustion of fuels linked to energy projections in RAINS; –industry: changes in national and sectoral GDP as basis for projections in number of industries (chemical, food and drink, wood preservation, other industrial solvent use, etc.); –domestic solvent use (incl. paint), dry cleaning: related to population, GDP forecasts, changing consumption patterns; –industrial paint use: linked to vehicle manufacturing and ownership forecasts, national and industrial GDP.

11. IIASA Activity data: Agriculture Statistical data for 1990-95 from national and international (e.g., FAO, IFA, OECD) yearbooks Projections derived from agro-economic studies include assumptions on: n Future per capita consumption of milk, beef, pork, poultry, other meat and rates of fertilizer application; n The change in efficiency of production; n The import-export balance of dairy products, meat, etc. n Possible impact of the change of efficiency of production on emission rates. Spatial distribution derived from LUC project at IIASA and work of Li, Isherwood, Wang (1997)

12. IIASA Emission factors and more Originate from national and international sources as well as expert judgement; Country, region and sector specific parameters taken into account (including climate conditions where appropriate); Autonomous improvement as well as changes in production efficiency considered.

13. IIASA Comparison of emission coefficients (kg NH 3 /animal; %N loss for fertilizers)

14. IIASA Inventories and scenarios Emissions estimated for 1990 and 1995 - where applicable, including controls; Long-term developments: –No further controls (NFC) - only existing legislation; –Current legislation (CLE) - taking into account current and forthcoming legislation; –Preliminary BAT scenario for ammonia.

15. IIASA Current legislation scenario (CLE) Stationary sources (NO x ) –Japan - SCR on LCP and combustion modifications on other sources; Other countries, except China, Mongolia and Korea, DPR - combustion modifications Stationary sources (NMVOC) –Japan, Taiwan, Korea and HK- chemical industry, refineries, depots and gasoline stations: control of evaporative losses; paint use: good housekeeping and substitution; Other countries – no controls Traffic (NO x, NMVOC) –Japan, HK - Euro-3; Taiwan, Korea - Euro-2; China - Euro-1 (2001) and Euro-2 (2006); Mongolia and Korea, DPR - no control; also Japan, Taiwan, Korea and HK– evaporative controls and oxidation catalysts

16. IIASA Emissions of air pollutants in East Asia (10 6 tons) * For 2030, NFC and a hypothetical BAT scenario

17. IIASA Emissions of nitrogen oxides (kt NO x, by country)

18. IIASA Emissions of ammonia (kt NH 3, by country)

19. IIASA Emissions of NO x in East Asia (Mt NO x, by sector) TotalSectoral

20. IIASA A NO x projection for East Asia

21. IIASA Emissions of NO x from transport in East Asia (Mt NO x, by category)

22. IIASA Emissions of ammonia (Mt NH 3 )

23. IIASA NH 3 emission structure in China and other regions in 1990

24. IIASA Non-agricultural sources of NH 3 in Asia

25. IIASA Population density (10 6 capita/grid, data for 1990-95)

26. IIASA Spatial distribution of NO x emissions (kt NO x /grid) 19952030 (CLE)

27. IIASA Spatial distribution of VOC emissions (kt VOC /grid) 19952030(CLE)

28. IIASA Spatial distribution of livestock in East Asia (10 3 head /grid; data for 1990-1993) PigsLarge animals

29. IIASA Spatial distribution of NH 3 emissions (kt NH 3 /grid) 19952030

30. IIASA Emissions of volatile organic compounds in East Asia (kt VOC, by country)

31. IIASA Emissions of VOC in East Asia (Mt NMVOC)

32. IIASA Emissions of NMVOC from transport in East Asia (Mt NMVOC, by category)

33. IIASA Structure of NMVOC emissions in 1995 for selected countries in East Asia

34. IIASA Structure of VOC emissions for selected countries

35. IIASA Per capita VOC emission rates in selected countries, (kg/capita)

36. IIASA Anthropogenic NMVOC projection for East Asia

37. IIASA Comparison of Chinese sectoral VOC emissions for 1995, (example) a includes also open field burning

38. IIASA Ratio of NO x to VOC emissions in East Asia (kt NO x / kt VOC) 19952030(CLE)

39. IIASA Comparison of NO x estimates for 1990

40. IIASA Comparison of VOC and NH 3 estimates for 1990

41. IIASA Conclusions Emissions of NO x and NH 3 are projected to double by 2030 (compared to 1990) while anthropogenic NMVOC increase by 65%, in spite of assumed legislation and improvements in production efficiency. Although traffic density is projected to grow very fast, the increase in emissions is successfully slowed down by introduced legislation (transport remains an important source); Asian (China) emissions of NMVOC characterized by a high proportion originating from biomass burning; Current structure of NH 3 emissions differs from that of Europe; Several urban areas where emissions increase by a factor of two to three by 2030; Lack of NMVOC legislation (esp. China) in industry results in high growth of emissions from chemical industry and solvent use, making these sectors the major source in 2030;

42. IIASA Necessary improvements n Filling in gaps in historical data; n Locally validated emission factors (including VOC speciation); n Spatial (provincial and lower level) distribution of activities in the past and analysis of the possible future developments, e.g., incorporation of the land use data in order to better estimate the patterns of fertilizer application; n Details on industrial activities and their mid- and long- term projections; n Estimation of ammonia emissions from non- agricultural sources.