1. Theories of Revolution

2. The Classical Historical Model
Barrington Moore
The Classical Historical Model
Population Explosion and Technological Revolution c. 1700
Increase Commercial and Modern Industrial Activity c. 1760
Urbanization c. 1775
Emergence of a Middle Class c. 1789: With Accompanying Ideas of: Liberalism, Nationalism and Democracy
Emergence of a Working Class (Proletariat) c. 1825: With Accompanying Ideas of Socialism

3. Crane Brinton Anatomy of Revolution Causes of Revolution
Condition 1 – Economy: Societies become prosperous economically before revolution.
Condition 2 – Social Class: People of all social classes feel restless and held down by restrictions in society, religion, the economy or the government. People are hopeful about the future, but they are forced to accept less than they believe they are due. There is a growing bitterness between social classes and the classes closest to one another are the most hostile.
Condition 3 – Intellectuals: Scholars and thinkers give up on the way their society operates and transfer their allegiance to a revolutionary group.
Condition 4 - The government does not respond to the needs of its society. The government cannot organize its finances correctly and is either going bankrupt or trying to tax heavily and unjustly.
Condition 5 – Ruling Class  The leaders of the government and the ruling class begin to doubt themselves.   Some join with the opposition groups.

4. Crane Brinton Anatomy of Revolution Stages of Revolution
Moderates Come to Power
Radicalization of the Revolution – Radicals to Power
Crisis Period/Reign of Terror
Thermidor – Moderates back in power
Subversion of Revolution to Right Wing Authoritarian Figure (Meisel Addendum)

5. Chalmers Johnson Categories of Revolutionary Theories
Revolutionary Change
Categories of Revolutionary Theories
Actor-oriented Theories
Structural Theories
Conjunction Theories
Process Theories

6. Chalmers Johnson
Revolutionary Change
Multiple Dysfunction + Intransigent Elite + X Factor = Revolution
Mitigating Factor: Structural Conduciveness

7. Chalmers Johnson Revolutionary Change Types of Revolutions
Jacquerie – spontaneous uprising of the Masses
Millenarian – Elite leading the masses (Unusual of inspirational leader)
Jacobin – Elite leading masses (ideological elite)
Anarchist – Elites leading masses without direction, ideology or replacement of the social system
Coup d’etat – One Elite minority replacing another
Militarized mass insurrection - Elites arming the masses but don’t provide direction

8. The Communist Manifesto
Karl Marx
The Communist Manifesto
Hegelian Dialectic for the economic and social development
Primitive Communism
Slave Society
Feudal Society
Capitalism
Socialism
Communism (“The state will wither away”)

9. The Communist Manifesto
Karl Marx
The Communist Manifesto
All conflict arises from the class-based struggle to own the means of production.
The Bourgeosie would never give up their privileged place as owners of the means of production. Therefore, a revolution followed by a dictatorship of the proletariat will inevitably occur in the most industrialized societies.

10. Revolutionary Movements
James DeFronzo
Revolutionary Movements
Sufficient Conditions for Revolution
Mass Frustration in Society
Dissident Elite
Unifying Motivation
Severe Political Crisis
Permissive or Tolerant World Context

11. Ted Gurr Why Men Rebel RD – Relative Deprivation Turmoil – Mass RD
Conspiracy – Mass RD + Elite RD
Revolutionary War

12. Europe in Revolutions: 1492-1992
Charles Tilly
Europe in Revolutions:
Revolutionary Situations
Environment/Structure –
Weak states are more likely to enter these situation
Two or more groups compete for control of the state
State is unwilling or unable to suppress alternative coalitions
2. Revolutionary Outcomes
Elites defect
Neutralization of the armed forces

13. States and Social Revolutions
Theda Skocpol
States and Social Revolutions
Social Revolutions have both national and international impact.
Structural forces create revolutionary situations.
Social revolutions (a change in both state institutions and social structures) are carried out by purposive action by class-based revolts from below.
Two variables are sufficient to create a Revolutionary Situation (Part I):
A Crisis of State which creates a challenge the state cannot meet leading to elites (and/or the army) becoming divided
Patterns of class dominance determine which group will rise up to exploit the revolutionary situation and lead it.

14. States and Social Revolutions
Theda Skocpol
States and Social Revolutions
Revolutionary Outcomes (Part II) are shaped by:
The “obstacles and opportunities “ from Part I
The socioeconomic and international constraints affect how the revolutionary regime will establish itself.
France – liberal capitalism
Russia – socialist dictatorship
China – mass mobilizing party-state

15. Che Guevara & Gabriel Bonet
Guerrilla Foco Theory
Partisan Warfare (war against your enemy) +
Psychological Warfare (War against your friends) =
Equals Revolutionary Warfare
Che believes the corruption of capitalism causes the conditions (ie Multiple Dysfunction) for revolution exist everywhere. Therefore in a guerrilla foco, a revolution can be created anywhere.