1. Presented at AIDS 2010 in Vienna - Austria The economic impact of demographic trends and population growth: A look at Thabo Mofutsanyane District-Free State Province Author: Mpfuleni Khoza Statistics South Africa, Free State Province Methods South Africa has conducted three Censuses after the 1994 democratic elections (1996, 2001 and 2011). During the process, population and household attributes were enumerated and a variety of indicators generated. Censuses are principal means of collecting basic population and housing statistics required for social and economic development, policy interventions, their implementation and evaluation. Census 2011 data will be employed to observe demographic changes in Thabo Mofutsanyane District. The data was analyzed using SUPERCROSS software and Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. Results Introduction Classical population theories and more recent studies are at logger heads about the relationship between population growth and economic development (First view, Malthus; Early 1960s, Marxian; late 1960s Neo-Malthusians; 1980-1990s, Neutralism; Coale and Hoover 1958; Boserup, 1981, Hirschman 1958, Kuznets 1967 and Simon 1981). For example The ‘population optimists’ or ‘boomsters’ stress the importance of population growth in advancing productivity, promoting technological innovation and capturing economies of scale. On the other hand recent economic research shows that economic growth or “demographic dividend” is only realized when appropriate investments in education, employment, and health services are made. (Dr. J Baudouy 2006). The aim of the study is to investigate change in demographic trends with a focus on the following variables; population growth, age/sex structure and dependency ratio. Further to that a conclusion will be drawn on how the demographic dynamics in Thabo Mofutsanyane may impact on future economic development. This will be achieved by examining the population pyramid and compare recent demographic trends from Census 2001 data to Census 2011 data. Net Enrolment Ratio, has hovered around 95 percent from 2001 to 2011 in Mangaung Metropolitan Municipality (Figure 2). This study reveals that Mangaung Metropolitan Municipality recorded a net enrolment rate of 95.2 percent in 2001 and 94.8 percent in 2011 (Fig 2). Figure 3 shows that out of 95.2 percent of pupils who were enrolled in 2001, 50.2 percent were boys and 49.8 percent were girls. This indicates that more boys were enrolled in schools than girls in 2001. In 2011 out of 94.8 percent of pupils enrolled, 50.7 percent were boys and 49.3 percent were girls. The study shows that the proportion of girls who were enrolled in 2001 has declined in 2011. Discussions The results from this study indicate that out of every 100 children of primary school age group 94-95 are enrolled in school. This is comparable to international accepted standards. (see Langsten, 2013). However NER does not report on the quality of education and does not indicate grade repetition. NOW DISCUSS THE GENDER DIFFERENTIALS AND ALSO CONCLUDE ON THEM BELOW Conclusions and Policy Recommendations The study indicates that there has been a 0.4% enrolment decline between 2001 and 2011. This is an indication that if the status quo is maintained, mangaung metropolitan municipality will not be able to ensure that all boys and girls complete a full course of primary education by 2015. Progress will be needed if Mangaung Metropolitan Municipality is to achieve the target of 100% by 2015. Literature cited Education for all (2008). Country report: South Africa http://www.education.gov.za/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=rJwNOU9f82I%3d&tabid=452&mid=1034 Kiringai,J. and Levin, J (2008) Achieving the MDGs in Kenya with some aid and reallocation of public expenditures.Obrero : Obrero University. Langsten R (2013) Measuring progress toward universal primary education: An examination of indicators. Social Research Center: American University in Cairo. MDG Report (2013) Assessing Progress in Africa Toward the Millennium Development Goals. http://www.uneca.org/sites/default/files/publications/mdgreport2013_eng.pdf UNDP (2013), Millennium Development Goals: Country report http://hdr.undp.org/en/ Acknowledgments Mr Tshepang Chueu for data analysis Mrs Manana Kgabanyane for data analysis Mr Karl Heinz Joubert for mapping Mr Thabo Letsoalo for guidance Mrs Ntebogeng Madlopha for data analysis Figure 1 Source: Demarcation Board: 2012 Figure 3: Enrollment by gender (%) Figure 2 Source: Statistics South Africa: Census 2001 Source: Statistics South Africa: Census 2001 and 2011 Figure 3 Source: Statistics South Africa: Census 2011 Population Structure Generally the population size of Thabo Mofutsanyane District has decrease from 782 302 in 2001 to 736 238 in 2011 The Study reveals that the population structure of Thabo Mofutsanyane changed between 2001 and 2011. The population pyramids reveal that Thabo Mofutsanyane is a youthful population with 0-14 age group standing at 31.9%, and 65+ age group at 5.5% from Census 2011. The structure in 2001 shows that the population of the age group 0-4 is less than that of the age group 5-9. In 2011 the structure shows a much broader base with the population of the age group 0-4 exceeding that of other age groups.. Census results show that the 0-4 age group has increased from 4.9% in 2001 to 5.7. The narrow apex of the population pyramids indicates that life expectancy is low for both males and females, although females above 84+ have better survival rates than males. The population structure also indicates that Thabo Mofutsanyane has more females than males, this becomes more pronounced for age groups 35 and above. Dependency Ratios The data shows that the district economically active age population 15-64 was 62.6% in 2011 of the total, as compared to 61.4% in 2001. The numbers also show that the ‘dependency ratio’ of children (0-14) and the elderly (65+) to those in the economic active age has shrunk from 63% in 2001 to 59.6% in 2011. Discussion and Conclusion The population of Thabo Mofutsanyane is experiencing a negative growth (decline from 782 302 in 2001 to 736 238 in 2011). A negative population growth can be beneficial in settings of limited resources but may have an impact on local economic development and dependency ratios in future.Census 2011 data shows that the district’s youth bulge is pronounced at the 15-34 age groups. Without opportunities for the youthful population in education and in the labour market, the demographic dividends will not be realised. As indicated in the results, census 2001 records fewer births in 2001 compared to 2011 were the 0-4 age group exceeds all other age groups. The decline in the 0-4 age group population in 2001 maybe due to the impact of HIV/AIDS on the population of Thabo Mofutsanyane and the resulting increase in child mortality together with an increase in contraceptive use, abstinence and in fecundity due to HIV/AIDS. This calls for more studies to be conducted in order to establish the cause of the anomaly in the population structure. High dependency ratios in Thabo Mofutsanyane may cause a strain on the small fraction of those who are employed (31.3% of adults in the economically active age groups are employed in Thabo Mofutsanyane). The dependency ratios also put a strain on government provided welfare services (e.g. subsidised health, social security, housing and education). Declining dependency ratio and increases in economic active age population are necessary but not sufficient to realise potential of the “demographic dividend”. A “window of opportunity” needs good policies and institutions. It is thus imperative for local government authorities to place an emphasis on education and creating employment opportunities for younger people and those in their economically active age groups. Literature cited Baudouy, J Dr. (2006). Population and Sustainable Development Demographic Dynamics and Socio- economic development. Berlin, Germany Boserup, E. (1981). Population and Technological Change: A Study of Long-Term Trends. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Coale, A. J. & Hoover, E. M. (1958). Population Growth and Economic Development in Low-Income Countries: A Case Study of India's Prospects. Princeton: Princeton University Press. Hirschman, A. O. (1958). The Strategy of Economic Development. New Haven: Yale University Press. Kuznets, S. (1967). Population and Economic Growth. Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society, 111 (June), 170-93. Simon, J. (1981). The Ultimate Resource. Princeton: Princeton University Press. Statistics South Africa. (2012). Census 2011.Statistical release. P0301.4 October 2012. (2011) Statistical release, Mid-Year Population Estimates, P0302. 27 July 2011 Weeks, J. R. (2005) Population: an Introduction to Concepts and Issues (Ninth Edition). Wadsworth Pub. Co.

2. Presented at AIDS 2010 in Vienna - Austria