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Family Planning Programs for the 21st Century: Rationale and Design Reconsidered Monica Das Gupta John Bongaarts John Cleland Shareen Joshi.

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Presentation on theme: "Family Planning Programs for the 21st Century: Rationale and Design Reconsidered Monica Das Gupta John Bongaarts John Cleland Shareen Joshi."— Presentation transcript:

1 Family Planning Programs for the 21st Century: Rationale and Design Reconsidered Monica Das Gupta John Bongaarts John Cleland Shareen Joshi

2 Outline of talk 1.Why discuss family planning, not female education? 2.Rationale for family planning programs. Review literature on: a)Does rapid population growth affect developing countries prospects of economic growth? b)Does rapid population growth affect prospects of sustainable management of resources? c)Are family planning programs effective? 3.The donor retreat & its implications: a)The donor retreat b)Implications for Sub-Saharan Africa c)Implications for women’s health 4.Designing family planning programs: a)Strengthening the supply of services b)Building demand for services 5.Conclusions

3 SECTION 1 WHY DISCUSS FAMILY PLANNING, NOT FEMALE EDUCATION?

4 Why discuss family planning, not female education? Female education strongly associated with lower fertility and better outcomes of many kinds – But well-established in the policy arena, – Well-recognized private & social returns By contrast, family planning relatively neglected by donors – Less awareness of its intrinsic benefits & positive externalities World Bank (2009) notes its support for population nearly disappeared

5 Percent of donor expenditures on population assistance by activity, Source: UNFPA 2003:Table 5, UNFPA 2009:Table5

6 SECTION 2 THE RATIONALE FOR FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAMS: A LITERATURE REVIEW

7 1a: Does rapid population growth affect developing countries’ prospects of economic growth? Coale-Hoover ― rapid population growth hinders economic growth (in poor, agrarian 1950s India): – Resources diverted from investment in production to meet needs of: Growing population Rising youth dependency ratios Studies challenging these models ― and rationale for family planning programs (cross-country regressions 1960s to 1980s) Recent studies indicate: – Low dependency ratios: can increase productivity, invest in future growth – Household-level: lower fertility ass with better health, schooling, laborforce participation – Population increases associated with lower growth in per capita income – Rapid population growth can constrain economic growth, especially where policy settings hinder productivity rise Throughout, broad consensus that policy & institutional settings are key driver of economic growth, while population growth rate plays a secondary role.

8 1b: Does rapid population growth affect prospects of sustainable management of resources? Innovation obviates population pressure on resources: – Population growth induces innovation – Innovation makes resource base effectively infinite (Simon) Constraints to innovation: – Where resources are free or under-priced – Difficulties of managing use of global common property resources

9 Intensive agriculture has contributed to the proliferation of dead zones Source: World Bank (2010a) World Development Report 2010: Map 3.4 (derived from Diaz and Rosenberg 2008).

10 Required growth in agricultural productivity Source: World Bank (2010a) World Development Report 2010: Figure 3.5 (derived from Lotze-Campen et al 2009). We thank Dr Lotze-Campen for disaggregating the “business as usual” scenario into two estimates: (1) with population held constant at the 2005 level, and (2) the WDR 2010’s “business as usual” scenario, which includes anticipated population increase to 9 billion by 2055.

11 1c: Are family planning programs effective? (Pritchett): fp programs little effect on fertility –Controlling for desired family size –Mass media found effective at reducing desired family size –Major component of fp progs Randomized evaluation data virtually non-existent –But many careful studies indicate fp programs reduce fertility

12 SECTION 3 IMPLICATIONS FOR SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA IMPLICATIONS FOR WOMEN’S HEALTH

13 2b: Implications for Sub-Saharan Africa

14 Trends in fertility by region, Source: UN 2009

15 % increase in population aged 0-14, Source: UN 2009

16 Changes in per capita food production, Source: The Royal Society 2009: Figure 1.4

17 Growth in GDP per capita, Source: World Bank 2007b: Figure 2.5, derived from the World Bank World Development Indicators database Note: GDP per capita index 1960=100

18 Fertility decline helps improve women’s health : Ratio of Male to Female Mortality, India,

19 SECTION 4 DESIGNING FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAMS

20 Section 4: Designing family planning programs Strengthening the supply of services Strengthening the demand for services

21 Population projections for sub-Saharan Africa Maintaining one less birth per woman reduces projected population size in 2050 by half a billion Source: UN 2009

22 Section 5: Conclusions


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