Presentation on theme: "Monica Das Gupta John Bongaarts John Cleland Shareen Joshi"— Presentation transcript:
1Monica Das Gupta John Bongaarts John Cleland Shareen Joshi Family Planning Programs for the 21st Century: Rationale and Design ReconsideredMonica Das GuptaJohn BongaartsJohn ClelandShareen Joshi
2Outline of talk Why discuss family planning, not female education? Rationale for family planning programs. Review literature on:Does rapid population growth affect developing countries prospects of economic growth?Does rapid population growth affect prospects of sustainable management of resources?Are family planning programs effective?The donor retreat & its implications:The donor retreatImplications for Sub-Saharan AfricaImplications for women’s healthDesigning family planning programs:Strengthening the supply of servicesBuilding demand for servicesConclusions
3Section 1 why discuss family planning, not female education?
4Why discuss family planning, not female education? Female education strongly associated with lower fertility and better outcomes of many kindsBut well-established in the policy arena,Well-recognized private & social returnsBy contrast, family planning relatively neglected by donorsLess awareness of its intrinsic benefits & positive externalitiesWorld Bank (2009) notes its support for population nearly disappeared
5Percent of donor expenditures on population assistance by activity, 1995-2007 Source: UNFPA 2003:Table 5, UNFPA 2009:Table5
6Section 2 the Rationale for family planning programs: a literature review
7Coale-Hoover ― rapid population growth hinders economic growth 1a: Does rapid population growth affect developing countries’ prospects of economic growth?Coale-Hoover ― rapid population growth hinders economic growth(in poor, agrarian 1950s India):Resources diverted from investment in production to meet needs of:Growing populationRising youth dependency ratiosStudies challenging these models ― and rationale for family planning programs(cross-country regressions 1960s to 1980s)Recent studies indicate:Low dependency ratios: can increase productivity, invest in future growthHousehold-level: lower fertility ass with better health, schooling, laborforce participationPopulation increases associated with lower growth in per capita incomeRapid population growth can constrain economic growth, especially where policy settings hinder productivity riseThroughout, broad consensus that policy & institutional settings are key driver of economic growth, while population growth rate plays a secondary role.
8Innovation obviates population pressure on resources: 1b: Does rapid population growth affect prospects of sustainable management of resources?Innovation obviates population pressure on resources:Population growth induces innovationInnovation makes resource base effectively infinite (Simon)Constraints to innovation:Where resources are free or under-pricedDifficulties of managing use of global common property resources
9Intensive agriculture has contributed to the proliferation of dead zones Source: World Bank (2010a) World Development Report 2010: Map 3.4 (derived from Diaz and Rosenberg 2008).
10Required growth in agricultural productivity Source: World Bank (2010a) World Development Report 2010: Figure 3.5 (derived from Lotze-Campen et al 2009). We thank Dr Lotze-Campen for disaggregating the “business as usual” scenario into two estimates: (1) with population held constant at the 2005 level, and (2) the WDR 2010’s “business as usual” scenario, which includes anticipated population increase to 9 billion by 2055.
111c: Are family planning programs effective? (Pritchett): fp programs little effect on fertilityControlling for desired family sizeMass media found effective at reducing desired family sizeMajor component of fp progsRandomized evaluation data virtually non-existentBut many careful studies indicate fp programs reduce fertility
12Section 3 implications for Sub-Saharan Africa implications for women’s health