1. Japan`s Direction: Pacifism & Legitimate Use of Force Daiwa Foundation, London, 13 November 2013 Reinhard Drifte R. デリフテ 杜浩 Emeritus Professor, Newcastle U. Royal United Services Institute, London HP: www.rfwdrifte.ukgo.com/

2. The risks of territorial + maritime border conflicts permanent thorn in bilateral/trilateral relationships; Damage to economic benefit from resources for either side Domestic manipulation to gain leverage; Time factor: solution becomes ever more difficult; China: Risk of demonstrations against Japan turning against the government China: spoiling China`s reputation as a `good neighbour` Negative impact on SCS disputes; Undermining international law and the principle of peaceful resolution of such conflicts sporadic incidents which can result in armed confrontation; sporadic incidents which can result in armed confrontation; naval arms race; naval arms race;

3. PRC escalatory measures since 11 September 2012: Coast Guard [CMS] (Background: Rhetoric warfare; economic & political retribution) Regularizing Chinese coast guard patrols in EEZ/CZ/Territorial Waters (Alternation between piano & forte: frequency; number of vessels; length of time in TW →) as of Nov 2013: 69 times TW - 2010 FLEC into CZ, August 2011 into TW - CMS into TW 16.3.2012 (J`s island naming), July 2012 (Kokuyuka announcement); 19 Sept 2012 6 vessels: start of regular patrols) - Dec 2012/Feb 2013: Haijian 50 opening hangar doors as if launching helicopter… Outcome: Japan`s + China`s coast guard vessels facing each other constantly in the waters around the Senkaku Islands but only formalized verbal confrontation (“get out!”; “Our territory!”) (contrast with exchange of water cannon salvos 25.9.2012 + 24 January 2013 with Taiwan!) Operational constraints (incentive for escalation to military level?): lack of CG vessels; China reconditioning naval vessels – Japan abandoned the idea; reduction of leave time; closer cooperation between PRC coast guard & military; 22 July 2013 merger of China`s 4 “dragons” under SOA (“Kwantung Army”? Or “Rottweiler”?)

4. Source: Asahi 29.9.2010 http://www.asahi.com/english/TKY201009280282.html

5. CMS aircraft deployment leading to ASDF involvement 2012 January: announcement of deployment of CMS aircraft “by 2012” 2012 December 13: CMS turbocraft (Y12) flying over Uotsurijima - Only possible Japanese operational reaction is deployment of ASDF: 8 ASDF aircraft scrambled (too late) - Problem: closest radar position is 200 km from Senkaku on Miyakojima Since then regular CMS aircraft patrols (normally at a distance of 120 km) Global Times: “Japan aggressive”; “PRC may respond with air force” Asahi Shimbun: “a highly provocative act that could lead to an armed conflict” 2013 January: Japanese media report consideration of using tracer bullets (warning shots); denied by gov`t

6. PRC escalatory measures since 11 September 2012: PLAA involvement 2013 January: PLAA sends 2 fighter jets against 2 ASDF F-15 interceptors which were following a PLAA Y8 transport aircraft patrolling the PRC oil platforms Japan: 2013 July-September scramble: out of 193 times, 80 times vs PLAA (+11 over April-June 2013); April-December 2012 160 times vs PLAA (always more vs Russia!) 2013 Oct 27-29 daily flights through Miyako strait of H-6 bom. +Y-8 surveillance aircraft Japan: Since 13 Dec 2012 incident: round the clock radar surveillance aircraft (4 AWACS from Hamamatsu; 13 E2C from Misawa) for Senkaku island area Japan: ASDF deploys F-15 from Naha (Okinawa), 400 km from S. (=20 min flight time); Japan not (yet?) using warning shots as done against Soviet Union; considering to deploy F-15 from Shimojishima Airport at 200 km from S.

7. PRC escalatory measures since 11 September 2012: PLAN involvement 2012 October 16: PLAN vessels in CZ between Yonaguni and Iriomoto for 1 st time (typhoon?) 2012 December: 4 PLAN vessels passing from Pacific through waters between Yonaguni and Iriomoto (normally Okinawa-Miyakojima) 2013 19 January: PLAN vessel`s firing radar lock-on on MSDF helicopter (involvement of US AWACS!) 2013 30 January: PLAN vessel`s firing radar lock-on on MSDF destroyer (PM Noda: greater distance than 3 km; PM Abe: reversal)

8. PRC escalatory measures since 11 September 2012: Deployment of Drones 2012 State Ocean Administration announcing deployment of drones “by 2012” 2012 Dec 15 + 2013 June: drone “apparently came near Senkaku” 2013 September 3: SOA announced plans to set up 11 bases in coastal areas to operate drone flights in the Pacific 2013 September 9: Chinese drone outside Japanese air space (ADIZ) 200 km NE of Senkaku (PRC confirmed “aircraft”); ASDF scrambled 2013 Oct 20: PM Abe approves draft to shoot down foreign drones that intrude into Japan’s airspace if warnings to leave are ignored 2013 Oct 26: PRC Defense Ministry Spokesman: shooting down “act of war”, would prompt retaliation 2013 Oct 28: Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary: Japan will respond lawfully should a Chinese drone violate Japan's airspace

9. Further Japanese countermeasures 2013 Jan 13: GSDF elite forces (1st Airborne Brigade) staging public display of retaking island in Chiba Pref. (Narashino) 2013 Jan: Coast Guard decided to create 600 –member unit exclusively for front-line missions; more 10,000 t class vessels 2013 Sept 9: Plans for Iwojima-based radar 2013 Oct: MSDF considering deployment of unmanned helicopters 2013 Nov: Ground-Ship missiles from north J deployed at Miyakojima drill

10. What are the Chinese intentions? Demonstrate that Japan is no longer exerting exclusive control over the islands (contested sovereignty) Force Japan to admit that there is “territorial dispute” by making this obvious to Japan and the rest of the world Force Japan to admit that there was a tacit agreement to shelve the dispute (to go back to it?)

11. The US role: creator, beneficiary, promoter & victim US: Japan-US Security Treaty Art. 5 applies to Senkaku because “under Japanese administration”, but no automatic US military involvement US: no position on “sovereignty” (despite “residual sovereignty” in 1951!) Would Japan risk US security guarantee if it makes a compromise on its administrative rights? Japanese efforts to get more explicit US support ; “test case of the alliance”? US dilemma : getting more Japanese burden sharing (for US “rebalancing”); pressure on Japan to finalize Okinawa relocation; “collective defence”, etc But: develop politically positive & economically lucrative US-PRC relations

12. US: delicate balancing US: insisting on diplomatic solution, no use of force (ECS/SCS), opposes "any unilateral actions that would seek to undermine Japanese administration”… (warning against kokuyuka before Sept 2012)… … while enhancing US force deployment in Japan, joint exercises, etc - (announcement of F-35 deployment in Iwakuni for 2017; Osprey deployment in Okinawa good for Senkaku defence; June 2013 exercise in Calif. “retaking island”) - 2013 Jan 10: U.S. introduced AWACS aircraft to East China Sea airspace - 2013 Oct 2: 2+2 meeting confirms US security guarantee + will rotate long- distance surveillance drones to Japan and deploy its new P-8 maritime patrol aircraft - 2012 Nov 10: agreement to begin strategic talks for a review of guidelines for bilateral defence cooperation China urging US to “maintain neutrality”

13. Improving political climate: A mature understanding of Confidence Building Measures (CBM) Goal: to avoid military clashes, arms races, and decrease distrust about intentions of the other side Means: military-to-military dialogues; “Hot Line” of communication for emergencies; joint training for natural catastrophes; fleet visits, etc Problem: PRC misunderstanding of CBM; better: Distrust-reducing measures; not a means to extract prior concessions! Result: no military-to-military dialogues; no military hot line; no military aircraft for earthquake relief (Sichuan; Tohoku); fleet visits only since 2007 Much better between PRC-ROK; PRC-US, etc Structural problems: PRC secrecy; under-developed military diplomacy (CCP role); different levels of military modernization

14. Literature Reinhard Drifte, The Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands Territorial Dispute between Japan and China. Between the Materialization of the `China Threat` and `Reversing the Outcome of World War II`?, UNISCI Discussion Papers (Complutense University of Madrid), no. 32 May 2013, pp. 9-62, http://tinyurl.com/ka27pvyhttp://tinyurl.com/ka27pvy Reinhard Drifte, From `Sea of Confrontation` to `Sea of Peace, Cooperation and Friendship`? - Japan facing China in the East China Sea, Japan Aktuell 3, 2008, pp. 27-51. http://www.giga- hamburg.de/dl/download.php?d=/content/publikationen/archiv/ja_a ktuell/jaa_0803_fokus_drifte.pdfhttp://www.giga- hamburg.de/dl/download.php?d=/content/publikationen/archiv/ja_a ktuell/jaa_0803_fokus_drifte.pdf