Presentation on theme: "A Future Oriented Approach to China-Japan Relations"— Presentation transcript:
1 A Future Oriented Approach to China-Japan Relations ForA talk at Sagamore Institute, 26 March 2013Shunji CuiFulbright Scholar-in-Residence,Marian University
2 A Future Oriented Approach to China-Japan Relations The Current State of China-Japan Relations – Tensions over East China Sea DisputesWhy It Has Proved to be So Difficult?‘The Drums of War’ or Can it be Avoided?How do China and Japan Move towards a Future Oriented Direction?
4 Fishing Platform/Pinnacle Islands 钓鱼台列屿 / 尖閣列島 Diaoyu/Senkaku (D/S) Islands A chain of tiny 8 islands5 uninhabitable islands,3 barren rocksAll are volcanic formations from the Neocene ageLargest Island钓鱼台Diaoyutai (S)鱼钓岛Uotsurisima(J)surface area: 3.5 skm.
5 Geographical Location 120 nautical miles northeast of Taiwan200 nm east of PRC200 nm southwest of Naha, Okinawa
6 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea,1982 Territorial Waters– 12nmThe sovereign territory of the stateBut foreign ships (both military and civilian) are allowed innocent passage through itExclusive Economic Zone—200nmControl of all economic resources, including fishing, mining, oil exploration, and any pollution of those resources.
7 D/S Island Disputes: Downward Spirals? : Japan’s “nationalization” of 3 of the IslandsFollowed by Chinese maritime surveillance ships entering into disputed waters – even within 12nmSmall aircraft of China’s State Oceanic Bureau flew into airspace over the D/SJapan deploying Airborne Warning and Control Systems (AWACS)Global Times (China) argued: “we need to prepare for the worst”, if Japan not be deterred.Situation worse than 2005 Possible War?
9 Why It Has Proved to be So Difficult? Conflictual ClaimsPolitical & Emotional
10 Japan’s Claim: I1885~: 10-y survey, terra nullius (land without owner): Meiji Cabinet’s decision to incorporate the islands into Japanese territory actual control.: Placed under the administration of Ishigaki, Yaeyama District, Okinawa Prefecture: Signing the Treaty of Shimonoseki1895-5: the Treaty came to effect.
11 Japan's Claim: After WWII 1951: The San Francisco Treaty (US-J)Japan renounced claims to a number of territories and islands including Taiwanthe Nansei Shoto (Nansei islands) came under US trusteeship1971: the Okinawa reversion dealNansei Shoto returned to JapanThe islands are under Japan’s controlNo disputes over the IslandsChina is just for oil
12 China’s Claim: Historical 1 Not terra nullius , but have been part of its territory since ancient times.Historical Records:1430, 顺风相送(Fair winds for escort), earliest, a non-official Chinese navigational record.1534, 使琉球录, earliest official record of the Imperial Envoy's Visit to Ryūkyū.Those islands served as important fishing grounds administered by the province of Taiwan.
13 China’s Claim: Historical 2 1874: Japan took Ryukyu IslandsJapan took Ryukyu Islands (Okinawa) from China by force when Chinese Qing Dynasty was involved in several wars with other foreign countriesHowever, the Diaoyu Islands still remained under the administration of Taiwan, a part of China.1895: The Treaty of ShimonosekiAfter being defeated by Japan in the Sino-Japan War ( ), China ceded Taiwan to Japan under the Shimonoseki Treaty.As a part of Taiwan, the Diaoyutai Islands belonged to Japan at that time.
14 China’s Claim: after WWII Cairo Declaration (1943) & Potsdam Proclamation (1945)Taiwan was returned to China at the end of World War IIThe Japanese government accepted the terms that stated in these documents "...that all the territories Japan has stolen from the Chinese, such as Manchuria and Formosa(Taiwan) shall be restored to the Republic of China.”Thus, deny the effects of 1951 San Francisco Treaty (US-J).
15 Difficulty II: Sovereignty and Beyond Japan:Actual Control – No sovereign IssueConcern of OkinawaChina’s Rise, perceived assertiveness, and threatChina:Emotional – reminding its weakness and humiliation, and Historical injustice in modern history.Vulnerable to Nationalist sentimentsUS Asian Policy
16 Shared Interests in Deescalating Their Relations Economic Impacts (by the end of 2012):Nissan’s sales in China have fallen 5.3 % to 1.18 million units,Toyota’s by 4.9 % to 840,000 units,Japanese direct investment in China fell by almost a third – (ASEAN looking for opportunity)Tourism –( )ANA: nearly 4,000 Japanese canceled their plans to visit China.The Japanese National Tourist Association: 20% drop in numbers visiting Japan from China
17 Japanese car sales in China in 2012 Source:China Daily
18 Shared Willingness and Efforts Natsuo Yamaguchi’s meeting with Xi Jinping (in Beijing, ).The eighth Tokyo-Beijing Forum (in Tokyo, July 2, 2012).Dialogue on D/S Island disputes (in HZ, )The International Politics of East Asia and the East China Sea (in Hangzhou, China, December 14-15, 2012)To Japan-China Dialogue: Toward a Future Oriented Japan-China Relationship (in Tokyo, Jnuary 23-24, 2013).Strong calling for ‘wisdom’ in settling territorial disputes
19 What Can be Done for A Future Oriented Relations? Managing the DisputesManaging the Great Power RelationsEnhancing People-to-People Relations
20 1. Managing the Disputes Understand/Accept the New Reality China: Japan’s nationalization of IslandsJapan: existing disputes over sovereigntyShelving the dispute & Searching for joint cooperationFishing; EnergyNo entry into disputed areaSet up ‘hot lines’ to prepare for contingencyEstablish UN Environmental Protection Areas
21 ‘Japan and China have struck a deal for the joint development of a gas field in the East China Sea, resolving a protracted bilateral dispute.’ BBC, 18 June 2008China: Chunxiao Gas Field
22 2. Managing the Great Power Relations China:Clear vision of regional/global governanceStronger demonstration of its Peaceful riseJapan:Accepting China’s riseUSPolicy of pivot Asia: accommodating China
23 3. Enhancing People-to-People Relations China-Japan: move beyond history – forward lookingReconciliationKim Dae-jung examplesConstructing Friendly RelationsCross-Strait ExampleIdentity among people in Taiwan