1. Scott's 2012-2013 Winter Forecast ! How do I make a forecast?

2. El Nino or La Nina? -2011 Warmer than normal water Cooler than normal water

3. Typical La Nina Pattern

4. El Nino or La Nina? -2012 Warmer than normal water Cooler than normal water

5. Typical El Nino Pattern

6. El Nino or La Nina? -2012 So what are we in? Looks like a Weak El Nino/Neutral (Also known as La Nada)

7. What is the PDO? Pacific Decadal Oscillation An index derived from Northern Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies. Negative PDO brings a trough into western North America and a ridge across eastern North America Helps determine El Nino/La Nina(-PDO: El Nino weaker, La Nina stronger; +PDO: El Nino stronger and longer lasting, La Nina weaker)

8. Pacific Decadal Oscillation-2011 A -PDO helps strengthen La Nina

9. Pacific Decadal Oscillation-2012

10. Always look at snow and ice cover ! (2011)

11. Always look at snow and ice cover ! (2012)

12. Early December 2012 snow & ice cover

13. North Atlantic Oscillation (The Wildcard)

15. Arctic Oscillation (AO)

16. Courtesy: Hazardous Weather Prediction Center (http://www.hwpcwx.org/)

17. Analog Years 1989-1990 (Neutral) 1992-1993 (Neutral) 1993-1994 (Neutral) 1998-1999 (Moderate La Nina) 2003-2004 (Neutral) 2008-2009 (Neutral) 2011-2012 (Weak La Nina)

18. About the analog years 1989-1990: 1992-1993: Storm of the Century-occurred in neutral year 1993-1994: Ice storms in neutral year 1998-1999: Record highs in December 2003-2004: 2008-2009: Early season snow, big snowstorm in March 2011-2012: Early season snow

19. Central Park Snowfall (analog years vs. average) SEASON JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN TOTAL 1989-90 0 0 0 0 4.7 1.4 1.8 1.8 3.1 0.6 0 0 13.4 1992-93 0 0 0 0 0 0.4 1.5 10.7 11.9 0 0 0 24.5 1993-94 0 0 0 0 T 6.9 12.0 26.4 8.1 0 0 0 53.4 1998-99 0 0 0 0 0 2.0 4.5 1.7 4.5 0 0 0 12.7 2003-04 0 0 0 0 0 19.8 17.3 0.7 4.8 0 0 0 42.6 2008-09 0 0 0 0 T 6.0 9.0 4.3 8.3 T 0 0 27.6 2011-12 0 0 0 2.9 0 0 4.3 0.2 0 0 0 0 7.4 AVERAGE 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.3 4.8 7.0 8.8 3.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 25.1 (1981-2010)

20. Philly Snowfall(analog years vs average) SEASON JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN TOTAL AVERAGE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.6 7.1 8.7 2.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 22.8 (1981-2010) 17 24.3 23.1 12.5 2011-2012 total: 2.4 16.310.1

21. Atlantic City Snowfall(analog years vs average) SEASON JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN TOTAL AVERAGE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.6 4.7 6.8 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 16.8 (1981-2010)

22. Temperature anomalies- December

23. Temperature anomalies- January

24. Temperature anomalies- February

25. Precipitation anomalies- December

26. Precipitation anomalies- January

27. Precipitation anomalies- February

28. What do the maps mean then? Temperatures for Central Park(1981-2010 avg): Dec Avg: 37.5 F (My outlook: +0.00 F) Jan Avg: 32.6 F (My outlook: -0.00 F) Feb Avg: 35.3 F (My outlook: -1.00 F)

29. What do the maps mean then? Liquid Precipitation for Central Park(1981- 2010 avg): Dec: 4.00 (Outlook +0.75) Jan: 3.65 (Outlook -0.75) Feb: 3.09 (Outlook -0.75)

30. What do the maps mean then? Temperatures for Philly Intl(1981-2010 avg): Dec Avg: 37.4 F (My outlook: 0.00 F) Jan Avg: 32.9 F (My outlook: 0.00 F) Feb Avg: 35.6 F (My outlook: 0.00 F)

31. What do the maps mean then? Liquid Precipitation for Philly Intl(1981- 2010 avg): Dec: 3.55 (Outlook 0.00) Jan: 3.03 (Outlook +0.75) Feb: 2.64 (Outlook -0.75)

32. What do the maps mean then? Temperatures for Atlantic City(1981-2010 avg): Dec Avg: 37.0 F (My outlook: -0.50 F) Jan Avg: 32.8 F (My outlook: 0.00 F) Feb Avg: 35.1 F (My outlook: -0.00 F)

33. What do the maps mean then? Liquid Precipitation for Atlantic City(1981- 2010 avg): Dec: 3.68 (Outlook +0.50) Jan: 3.28 (Outlook +0.50) Feb: 2.87 (Outlook -0.75)

34. So what are my thoughts about snowfall this Winter? At or slightly above average snowfall along I-95 corridor; average along the coast The further N&W you go, the snowier it will be (elevation, colder air in place) A -NAO can throw a curve ball and with cold air in place there could be at least 1-2 big snowstorms (coastal storms)

35. My prediction (includes November 8 th storm)

36. Want to find out more this Winter? My Facebook Weather Page (www.facebook.com/scottderek)