Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Scott's 2012-2013 Winter Forecast ! How do I make a forecast?

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "Scott's 2012-2013 Winter Forecast ! How do I make a forecast?"— Presentation transcript:

1 Scott's Winter Forecast ! How do I make a forecast?

2 El Nino or La Nina? Warmer than normal water Cooler than normal water

3 Typical La Nina Pattern

4 El Nino or La Nina? Warmer than normal water Cooler than normal water

5 Typical El Nino Pattern

6 El Nino or La Nina? So what are we in? Looks like a Weak El Nino/Neutral (Also known as La Nada)

7 What is the PDO? Pacific Decadal Oscillation An index derived from Northern Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies. Negative PDO brings a trough into western North America and a ridge across eastern North America Helps determine El Nino/La Nina(-PDO: El Nino weaker, La Nina stronger; +PDO: El Nino stronger and longer lasting, La Nina weaker)

8 Pacific Decadal Oscillation-2011 A -PDO helps strengthen La Nina

9 Pacific Decadal Oscillation-2012

10 Always look at snow and ice cover ! (2011)

11 Always look at snow and ice cover ! (2012)

12 Early December 2012 snow & ice cover

13 North Atlantic Oscillation (The Wildcard)

14

15 Arctic Oscillation (AO)

16 Courtesy: Hazardous Weather Prediction Center (http://www.hwpcwx.org/)

17 Analog Years (Neutral) (Neutral) (Neutral) (Moderate La Nina) (Neutral) (Neutral) (Weak La Nina)

18 About the analog years : : Storm of the Century-occurred in neutral year : Ice storms in neutral year : Record highs in December : : Early season snow, big snowstorm in March : Early season snow

19 Central Park Snowfall (analog years vs. average) SEASON JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN TOTAL T T T AVERAGE T ( )

20 Philly Snowfall(analog years vs average) SEASON JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN TOTAL AVERAGE ( ) total:

21 Atlantic City Snowfall(analog years vs average) SEASON JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN TOTAL AVERAGE ( )

22 Temperature anomalies- December

23 Temperature anomalies- January

24 Temperature anomalies- February

25 Precipitation anomalies- December

26 Precipitation anomalies- January

27 Precipitation anomalies- February

28 What do the maps mean then? Temperatures for Central Park( avg): Dec Avg: 37.5 F (My outlook: F) Jan Avg: 32.6 F (My outlook: F) Feb Avg: 35.3 F (My outlook: F)

29 What do the maps mean then? Liquid Precipitation for Central Park( avg): Dec: 4.00 (Outlook +0.75) Jan: 3.65 (Outlook -0.75) Feb: 3.09 (Outlook -0.75)

30 What do the maps mean then? Temperatures for Philly Intl( avg): Dec Avg: 37.4 F (My outlook: 0.00 F) Jan Avg: 32.9 F (My outlook: 0.00 F) Feb Avg: 35.6 F (My outlook: 0.00 F)

31 What do the maps mean then? Liquid Precipitation for Philly Intl( avg): Dec: 3.55 (Outlook 0.00) Jan: 3.03 (Outlook +0.75) Feb: 2.64 (Outlook -0.75)

32 What do the maps mean then? Temperatures for Atlantic City( avg): Dec Avg: 37.0 F (My outlook: F) Jan Avg: 32.8 F (My outlook: 0.00 F) Feb Avg: 35.1 F (My outlook: F)

33 What do the maps mean then? Liquid Precipitation for Atlantic City( avg): Dec: 3.68 (Outlook +0.50) Jan: 3.28 (Outlook +0.50) Feb: 2.87 (Outlook -0.75)

34 So what are my thoughts about snowfall this Winter? At or slightly above average snowfall along I-95 corridor; average along the coast The further N&W you go, the snowier it will be (elevation, colder air in place) A -NAO can throw a curve ball and with cold air in place there could be at least 1-2 big snowstorms (coastal storms)

35 My prediction (includes November 8 th storm)

36 Want to find out more this Winter? My Facebook Weather Page (www.facebook.com/scottderek)


Download ppt "Scott's 2012-2013 Winter Forecast ! How do I make a forecast?"

Similar presentations


Ads by Google