1. Project on Conflict Prevention and Early Warning

2. Objective Develop a methodology to: Assess existing and potential conflicts in Latin America for use by INTL.ORG in coordinating international activity in the region Assess the impact of conflict on democracy in the region Assess the capacity of democratic regimes to confront the multiple forms of violent conflict in the region

3. Theoretical Foundations for Understanding Democracy Theoretical Foundations for most approaches: –Schumpeter : democratic method-institutional arrangement to structure political decisions by individuals by means of competitive elections –Dahl : polyarchy-contestation and participation; implies the existence of civil and political freedoms –Linz : efficacy, effectiveness, legitimacy efficacy: capacity of regime to find solutions to basic problems effectiveness: capacity to implement policies with the desired results legitimacy: shaped by efficacy and effectiveness

4. Theoretical Foundations for Understanding Democracy Schedlers stages of democratic consolidation: –authoritarianism –electoral democracy –liberal democracy –advanced democracy

5. From Democratic Theory to Democracy Assessments USAID Democracy and Governance Assessment STEP 1STEP 1-Five dynamic variables: –consensus, competition, inclusion, rule of law, good governance STEP 2STEP 2- Key players, their interests, resources, alliances and strategies STEP 3STEP 3- Institutional arenas in which political game is played, including incentives for democratic and antidemocratic behavior STEP 4STEP 4- Adapting assessment to donor objectives and constraints

6. From Democratic Theory to Democracy Assessments International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance: –Citizenship, law and rights –Representative and accountable government –Civil society and popular participation –International dimensions of democracy

7. From Democratic Theory to Democracy Assessments World Bank Institute: –Process by which governments are selected, held accountable, monitored and replaced- voice & accountability; political stability and violence –Capacity to manage resources efficiently and to formulate, implement and enforce policies – quality regulatory framework; government effectiveness –Respect for economic and social institutions – control of corruption; rule of law

8. From Democratic Theory to Democracy Assessments UNDP –GOVERNANCE: –GOVERNANCE: exercise of economic, political and administrative authority to manage a countrys affairs and the means by which states promote social cohesion, integration and ensure well-being –Five focus areas: Governing institutions Public and private sector management Decentralization Civil society organizations Governance in special circumstances

9. Conflict Prevention PIOOM PIOOM-Five stages of conflict and two crisis thresholds: –Stage 1: peaceful stable situation –Stage 2: political tension situation POLITICAL CRISIS Threshold 1: POLITICAL CRISIS –Stage 3: violent political conflict –Stage 4: low-intensity conflict HUMANITARIAN CRISIS Threshold 2: HUMANITARIAN CRISIS –Stage 5: high-intensity conflict

10. Conflict Prevention -mainstreaming conflict prevention: –Causes of violence: Structural problems Triggers –Four-stage model of conflict: Discussion stage Polarization stage Segregation stage Destruction stage

11. Conflict Prevention International Peace Academy International Peace Academy- Five phases of conflict: –Potential conflict –Gestation of conflict –Trigger/Mobilization –Conflict/Escalation –Post-conflict

12. Conflict Prevention Linking Strategies of Conflict Prevention with phases of conflict (IPA): –Structural prevention: potential conflict (structural causes) –Conflict management/ prevention: gestation phase –Crisis management/preventive diplomacy: trigger/mobilization –Crisis/conflict management and termination: conflict escalation –Post-conflict peacebuilding: post-conflict

13. Limits of Existing Frameworks for Latin America Democracy literature (theoretical and assessments): –useful for understanding democratic regime transition and consolidation –needs to be refined to capture non-democratic groups and practices in secondary institutional arenas and society

14. Limits of Existing Frameworks for Latin America Conflict Prevention Frameworks: –existing stage models of conflict have limited utility when applied to conflict in Latin America where most conflicts: are clustered in the Potential, Gestation, and Post-conflict phases, and are unlikely to escalate as predicted by existing frameworks –need to be reconceptualized: to analyze the range and phases of conflicts most prevalent in Latin America to develop policy instruments appropriate for the region

15. Distinctiveness of the region Political Coherent states – not failed states Lengthy independence since early 19 th century Early/middle stages democratic transition Economic Middle income GDPs Extreme inequality Low to mid rates of growth Severe, concentrated poverty High underemployment Socio-Cultural Majority Catholic Moderate ethnic division Majority urban Mid to late stages of democratic transition International U.S. sphere of influence Active in trade blocs Relatively secure borders Distinctiveness of the region

16. Bringing Together Democracy and Conflict

17. Political and Non-Political Conflict Domestic Violence Traffic Violence Assault Opportunity Theft Rape Armed Robbery Extortion Youth Gangs Local-Regional organized crime Assassination Individual Terrorism Anomic Protest Intimidation of local authorities Electoral Fraud/Intimidation Police (rogue officers) Army (rogue officers) National organized crime Transnational organized crime Migrant trafficking Arms trafficking Auto trafficking Drug trafficking Selective repression Land invasion Environmental conflict Ethnic conflict Labor conflict Electoral Support Guerrilla Extradition Paramilitary Low High Degree of Organization Low Nonpolitical Political High

18. Types of Hypotheses on Violence and Crime H1:H1: transnational organized crime increases incidence of diffuse social and criminal violence H2:H2: sustained periods of organized political violence increases diffuse social and criminal violence H3: perceptions of inadequate enforcement promote diffuse social and criminal violence and organized crime

19. Hypotheses on Violence and Democracy H1:H1: political and non-political violent conflict erodes social capital, trust, and community H2:H2: political and non-political violent conflict undermines citizen confidence in the ability of government to maintain order and protect life and property H3:H3: H1 and H2 lead to lower levels of participation H4:H4: H1 and H2 lead to citizen self-protection H5:H5: H1 and H2 lead to forms of private justice such as paramilitaries, death squads, etc.

20. First Steps for a Regional Methodology on Conflict Prevention Two Dimensions: Democracy and Conflict DEMOCRACY: Democratic regime: Procedures -Inclusion, participation, exclusion -Consensus on regime and rules -Competition (parties, ideas, programs) Quality of democracy regime and society -Rule of Law: state capacity, unequal access, private justice, impunity -Transparency/ Corruption

21. First Steps for a Regional Methodology on Conflict Prevention CONFLICT -Mapping conflict geographically (sub-regionally and nationally) and by social groups, gender and ethnicity -Applying criteria from Table 1: diffuse –organized, non-political -political -Testing hypotheses by exploring relationship among types of violence and between violent conflict and its impact on democratic regime and society

22. First Steps for a Regional Methodology on Conflict Prevention Towards Indicators and Data: After overview assessment of democracy and conflict, narrowing the study to key areas of crisis and potential crisis : Example: Rule of Law – mapping the actions of violent actors and victims Data collection (quantitative and qualitative) on: judicial processes in a variety of arenas: human rights, violent crime, ethnic conflict. Data from official sources, police, military, human rights groups, civil society organizations and NGOs, Victims Organizations. Impunity: Victim surveys (all violent crimes, political violence, ethnic and/or gender violence)– What percentage of violent crime is reported. Of those reported, how many crimes are brought to trial? How many lead to conviction of the perpetrator?

23. How a Regional Conflict Prevention Strategy can be used as an Early Warning System Early Warning of what? Most conflicts in the region will not lead to generalized armed conflict, civil war and state collapse. Existing Early Warning Systems: - are oriented to other world regions and emphasize the monitoring and early warning of conflict. -do not develop remedial actions or policies Two schools: 1) remote, computer-based models for forecasting violent conflict, 2) qualitative and filed based case studies In Latin America, need to develop an Early Warning System that can understand the dynamics of slow death of democratic regimes as a result of multiple forms of violent conflict and citizen marginalization, as well as those flash points of broader national or sub-regional crisis or potential crisis.

24. Next Steps Workshop to discuss methodology Apply methodology: First case: June 2002 (Candidates: Colombia, Peru, Argentina, Guatemala, other) Case studies conducted between and January 2003). Refine methodology after each case study Deliver final methodology and apply conflict prevention methodology and Early Warning System throughout the region