1. Monitoring and Modelling Deforestation in Amazonia Gilberto Câmara, INPE, Brazil Schermerhorn Lecture Opening Academic Year, ITC, 2008

2. Source: Carlos Nobre (INPE) Can we avoid that this….

3. Fire... Source: Carlos Nobre (INPE) ….becomes this?

4. Global Change How much land change is happening? Where are land changes taking place? Who is causing the change? What are the impacts of public policies? What will happen in the future?

5. Agricultural Trade in Brazil photo source: Edson Sano (EMBRAPA)

6. Cattle in Amazonia and Brazil 19922007 Amazonia30 million75 million Brasil154 million207 million photo source: Edson Sano (EMBRAPA)

7. Processes of deforestation Slash and burnProgressive degradation

8. Slash and burn Burn: end of dry season Slash: start of dry season

9. Progressive degradation Wood extraction and burningSelective logging Further burning and pasture Barlow and Peters (2008) Clear cut

10. T2 – Loss of smaller trees Progressive degradation T1 – Selective logging T3 – Loss >50% of forestT4 – Loss >90% of forest

11. Severely degraded forest Pasture

12. Satellites for Forestry 1 10 100 1101001000 Resolution (m) Revisit (days) WFI CB2 CCD CBERS-2 AWFI CB3 PAN CBERS-3 Technology 2008 Technology 2015 Technology 2000 50 5 CBERS-6 CBERS-5 Mapping Deforestation Detection Deforestation Identification Forest types 5 Amaz-1 A1-CB3 LANDSAT TM MODIS

13. Deforestation as an event Forest Clear cut Clear cut – end of deforestation (objective and definitive)

14. ~230 scenes Landsat/year PRODES: Yearly detailed estimates of clear-cut areas (220 LANDSAT, 500 CBERS, 50 DMC images) Clear-cut deforestation monitoring

15. ~230 scenes Landsat/year Taxa anual de desmatamento PRODES: Yearly detailed estimates of clear-cut areas Clear-cut deforestation monitoring

16. Is deforestation an event or a process? What happens between the pristine forest and the clear cut? ? Forest Clear cut

17. DETER: 15-day alerts of newly deforested large areas Monitoring Deforestation in Amazonia

18. Exploração intensiva Floresta Perda >90% do dossel Corte raso Perda >50% do dossel time DETER – alert 1 How far is detection time from real-world time? DETER – alert 2 DETER – final alert Intensive exploitation Floresta Loss >90% Clear cut Loss >50%

19. Altamira (Pará) – LANDSAT Image – 22 August 2003

20. Altamira (Pará) – MODIS Image – 07 May 2004

21. Imagem Modis de 2004-05-21, com excesso de nuvens Altamira (Pará) – MODIS Image – 21 May 2004

22. Altamira (Pará) – MODIS Image – 07 June 2004

23. 6.000 hectares deforested in one month! Altamira (Pará) – MODIS Image – 22 June 2004

24. Altamira (Pará) – LANDSAT Image – 07 July 2004

25. Alerta DETER nov-2007 Landsat/TM August 2007 MODIS November 2007 How hard is to use MODIS images to detect deforestation?

26. Clear-cut for pasture Checking DETER´s data (February 2008)

27. Monthly reports: May 2008 Clear-cut Intensive impact Moderate impact Low impact Error

28. 166-112 116-113 116-112 TerraAmazon – open source software for large-scale land change monitoring Spatial database (PostgreSQL with vectors and images) 2004-2008: 5 million polygons, 500 GB images

29. Whats coming next?

30. Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C Scenario D Estradas não pavimentadas Rios principais Estradas pavimentadas em 2010 Áreas protegidas em 1997 Novas áreas protegidas (2004) Ações de comando e controle (locais de cumprimento da lei) Limites estaduais Demanda: 25.000 km 2 Estradas não pavimentadas Rios principais Estradas pavimentadas em 2010 Áreas protegidas em 1997 Novas áreas protegidas (2004) Ações de comando e controle (locais de cumprimento da lei) Limites estaduais Demanda: 15.000 km 2 Decreasing demand(15.000 km 2 ) New protected areas, new roads Command and control actions

31. Estradas não pavimentadas Rios principais Estradas pavimentadas (2010) Limites estaduais 0.0 – 0.1 0.1 – 0.2 0.2 – 0.3 0.3 – 0.4 0.4 – 0.5 0.5 – 0.6 0.6 – 0.7 0.7 – 0.8 0.8 – 0.9 0.9 – 1.0 % change 1997 a 2020: Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C Scenario D Projected scenario for Amazonia 2020

32. INPE´s results have worldwide impact

33. Society is watching!

34. International credibility helps… TerraAmazon Today, Brazils monitoring system is the envy of the world. INPE has its own remote sensing satellite, a joint effort with China, that allows it to publish yearly totals of deforested land that scientists regard as reliable.

35. Until 2015, Norway will give up to US$ 1 billion to reduce deforestation in the Amazon. Norways contribution will depend on how successful Brazil will be in reducing deforestation. Brazil has the largest rain forest and one of the worlds most advanced systems for surveillance of deforestation....especially when real money is involved!