1. Understanding Land Change in Amazonia: A Multidisciplinary Research Challenge Gilberto Câmara Director National Institute for Space Research Brazil IGERT Colloquim Series, Department of Geography, SUNY Bufallo, February 2007

2. INPE - brief description National Institute for Space Research  main civilian organization for space activities in Brazil  staff of 1,800 ( 800 Ms.C. and Ph.D.) Areas:  Space Science, Earth Observation, Meteorology and Space Engineering

3. Environmental activities at INPE Numerical Weather Prediction Centre  medium-range forecast and climate studies LANDSAT/SPOT Receiving and Processing Station  in operation since 1974 China-Brazil Earth Resources Satellite  5 bands (3 visible, 1 IR) at 20 m resol. Research Activities in Remote Sensing  300 MsC and PhD graduates  ONU-funded Center for Africa and S. America

4. The Future of Brazilian Amazon Why is this an multidisciplinary research challenge? Amazonia is a key environmental resource Many different concerns  Environment and biodiversity conservation  Economic development  Native population

5. Source: Carlos Nobre (INPE) Can we avoid that this….

6. Fire... Source: Carlos Nobre (INPE) ….becomes this?

7. Amazonia at a glance... The Natural System Almost 6 million km2 of contiguous tropical forests Perhaps 1/3 of the planet's biodiversity Abundant rainfall (2.2 m annually) 18% of freshwater input into the global oceans (220,000 m 3 /s) Over 100 G ton C stored in vegetation and soil A multitude of ecosystems, biological and ethnic diversity Source: Carlos Nobre (INPE)

8. We might know the past…. Estimativa do Desmatamento da Amazônia (INPE)

9. What’s coming next?

10. Deforestation... Source: Carlos Nobre (INPE)

11. Environmental Modelling in Brasil GEOMA: “Rede Cooperativa de Modelagem Ambiental”  Cooperative Network for Environmental Modelling  Established by Ministry of Science and Technology Long-term objectives  Develop models to predict the spatial dynamics of ecological and socio-economic systems at different geographic scales,  Support policy decision making at local, regional and national levels, by providing decision makers with qualified analytical tools.

12. Modelling Complex Problems Application of multidisciplinary knowledge to produce a model. If (... ? ) then... Desforestation?

13. What is Computational Modelling? Design and implementation of computational enviroments for modelling  Requires a formal and stable description  Implementation allow experimentation Rôle of computer representation  Bring together expertise in different field  Make the different conceptions explicit  Make sure these conceptions are represented in the information system

14. Public Policy Issues What are the acceptable limits to land cover change activities in the tropical regions in the Americas? What are the future scenarios of land use? How can food production be made more efficient and productive? How can our biodiversity be known and the benefits arising from its use be shared fairly? How can we manage our water resources to sustain our expected growth in urban population?

15. Modelling Land Change in Amazonia How much deforestation is caused by:  Soybeans?  Cattle ranching?  Small-scale setllers?  Wood loggers?  Land speculators?  A mixture of the above?

16. Challenge: How do people use space? Loggers Competition for Space Soybeans Small-scale Farming Ranchers Source: Dan Nepstad (Woods Hole)

17. Underlying Factors driving proximate causes Causative interlinkages at proximate/underlying levels Internal drivers *If less than 5%of cases, not depicted here. source:Geist &Lambin  5% 10% 50% % of the cases What Drives Tropical Deforestation?

18. Different agents, different motivations Intensive agriculture (soybeans)  export-based  responsive to commodity prices, productivity and transportation logistics Extensive cattle-ranching  local + export  responsive to land prices, sanitary controls and commodity prices

19. Large-Scale Agriculture Agricultural Areas (ha) 19701995/1996% Legal Amazonia5,375,16532,932,158513 Brazil33,038,02799,485,580203 Source: IBGE - Agrarian Census photo source: Edson Sano (EMBRAPA)

20. Cattle in Amazonia and Brazil Unidade19922001% Amazônia Legal29,915,79951,689,06172,78% Brasil154,229,303176,388,72614,36% photo source: Edson Sano (EMBRAPA)

21. Different agents, different motivations Small-scale settlers  Associated to social movements (MST, Church)  Responsive to capital availability, land ownership, and land productivity  Can small-scale economy be sustainable? Wood loggers  Primarily local market  Responsive to prime wood availability, official permits, transportation logistics Land speculators  Appropriation of public lands  Responsive to land registry controls, law enforcement

22. Altamira (Pará) – LANDSAT Image – 22 August 2003

23. Altamira (Pará) – MODIS Image – 07 May 2004

24. Imagem Modis de 2004-05-21, com excesso de nuvens Altamira (Pará) – MODIS Image – 21 May 2004

25. Altamira (Pará) – MODIS Image – 07 June 2004

26. 6.000 hectares deforested in one month! Altamira (Pará) – MODIS Image – 22 June 2004

27. Altamira (Pará) – LANDSAT Image – 07 July 2004

28. Modelling Land Change in Amazonia Territory (Geography) Money (Economy) Culture (Antropology) Modelling (GIScience)

29. Prodes 2003/2004 (INPE, 2005)Estudos Avançados nº 53 (Théry, H.; 2005) BR-319 BR-174 Cuiabá- Santarém BR-163 Cuiabá-Porto Velho BR-364 Transamazônica BR-230 Belém/Brasília Current roads Planned roads “Current and future development axes”

30. New Frontiers Deforestation Forest Non-forest Clouds/no data INPE 2003/2004: Dynamic areas (current and future) Intense Pressure Future expansion

31. Amazonian new frontier hypothesis (Becker) “The actual frontiers are different from the 60’s and the 70’s In the past it was induced by Brazilian government to expand regional economy and population, aiming to integrate Amazônia with the whole country. Today, induced mostly by private economic interests and concentrated on focus areas in different regions.

32. Integrated Land Use and Land Cover Change Modeling in Pará http://www.geoma.lncc.br

33. Land use and Land Cover Dynamics in São Félix do Xingu-Iriri (PA)

34. Iriri River S. F Xingu Xingu River Novo Progresso

35. Reservas Indígenas Rio Xingu Rio Iriri Transamazônica Rio Iriri Escada et al, 2005 – Estudos Avançados, Nº 54 Annual rate Accumulated Deforestation

36. Araújo (2004) Escada et al (2005) Land Appropriation Model Violent Expropriation Primary occupation Land permits Illegal registration Large farms Small- medium farms Legal moneyIllegal money

37. Source: DePará, 2005 Cattle ranching and deforestation Museu Paraense Emílio Goeldi e Embrapa Oriental Accumulated Deforestation Escada et al, 2005 – Estudos Avançados, Nº 54 Amount of cattle head

38. Cattle Ranching Model F F+R P PD P+R RP Forest Forest + Relief Pasture Degraded Pasture Pasture + Relief Recovered Pasture

39. P, M Tibornea. F. Cheiro Área em disputa (CPT, 2004) G Branquinho Cutia L. Jaba Toca do Sapo L. Caraíba Estrada Canopus Estrada dos fazendeiros P Primavera 10 km Source: CPT(2004), Taravello, R. (2004), Isa (2001), Geoma(2004), Escada et al (2005) Pequenos e Médios Grandes G P P G G P G G G G G P G T T T T Ribeirinhos P - Small G, M - Large, Medium R - Riverside Agents in Terra do Meio

40. Rain season flux Dry season flux Population Flux: seasonality

41. ESEC Terra do Meio Parque Nacional da Serra do Pardo - 5% df Canopus Fazendeiros RESEX Riozinho do Anfrísio Flona de Altamira Analysis of public policy: Conservation units in Pará Prodes 2004 (INPE, 2005) 050 km Escada et al, 2005

42. Sample of results Test 2: Without demand or regression regionalization; Test 8: With demand and regression regionalization (one model for fine scale partition – Arco, Central and Occidental); Test 13: With demand and regression regionalization (Arco regression model used at Central partition).

43. Statistics: Humans as clouds Statistical analysis of deforestation

44. Land Change Model (1997-2015) 0% ->100% Federative States Roads Projected hot spots of deforestation 1997- 2015: Percentage of change in forest cover from 1997 to 2015: Regionalizing the demand improves pressure on Central area, but Central area regressions emphasizes proximity to ports and rivers, due to historical process in the area, and not connectivity to the rest of the country.

45. Impact of the proposed Manaus-Porto Velho road Rede Temática GEOMA Setembro, 2006

46. Área de estudo – ALAP BR 319 e entorno ALAP BR 319 Estradas pavimentadas em 2010 Estradas não pavimentadas Rios principais Portos new road

48. BASELINE SCENARIO – Hot spots of change (1997 a 2020) ALAP BR 319 Estradas pavimentadas em 2010 Estradas não pavimentadas Rios principais 0.0 – 0.1 0.1 – 0.2 0.2 – 0.3 0.3 – 0.4 0.4 – 0.5 0.5 – 0.6 0.6 – 0.7 0.7 – 0.8 0.8 – 0.9 0.9 – 1.0 % mudança 1997 a 2020:

49. GOVERNANCE SCENARIO – Differences from baseline scenario ALAP BR 319 Estradas pavimentadas em 2010 Estradas não pavimentadas Rios principais 0.0-0.50 Less: 0.00.10 More: Differences: Protection areas Sustainable areas

51. GIScience and change Modelling change is essential in our world We need a vision for extending GIScience to have a research agenda for modeling change

52. Global Land Project What are the drivers and dynamics of variability and change in terrestrial human- environment systems? How is the provision of environmental goods and services affected by changes in terrestrial human- environment systems? What are the characteristics and dynamics of vulnerability in terrestrial human- environment systems?

53. Limits for Models source: John Barrow (after David Ruelle) Complexity of the phenomenon Uncertainty on basic equations Solar System Dynamics Meteorology Chemical Reactions Hydrological Models Particle Physics Quantum Gravity Living Systems Global Change Social and Economic Systems