Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser.

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser."— Presentation transcript:

1 Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser.

2 Richmond Brothers, Inc. does not provide tax or legal advice; consult your tax or legal advisor regarding your particular situation. The indices mentioned in this seminar are unmanaged and not available for direct investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Opinions, estimates, forecasts, and statements of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. We believe the information contained in this commentary has been obtained from sources that are reliable. This presentation is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. These are the views of Platinum Advisor Marketing Strategies, LLC, and not necessarily those of the named representative, Broker dealer or Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice. Neither the named representative nor the named Broker dealer or Investment Advisor gives tax or legal advice. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. Please consult your financial advisor for further information. FORMALITIES

3 Source: Investment News FAILED PREDICTIONS Prediction: No! No! No! Bear Stearns is not in trouble! – Jim Cramer Reality: Five days later, JPMorgan Chase took over the firm, wiping out shareholders.

4 Source: Investment News FAILED PREDICTIONS Prediction: Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are fundamentally sound; theyre not in danger of going under. - Rep. Barney Frank Reality: Two months later, the mortgage giants were forced into conservatorship.

5 Source: Investment News FAILED PREDICTIONS Prediction: T. Boone Pickens in 2008 predicted that the price of oil then at $135 a barrel would hit $150 by the end of Reality: By late December, the price of crude had fallen below $40.

6 Source: Investment News FAILED PREDICTIONS Prediction: I dont see [subprime mortgage market troubles] imposing a serious problem. I think its going to be largely contained. - Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson Reality: He was wrong. Really wrong.

7 2013 So Far Factors Affecting the Stock Market and Economy Bond Prices, Interest Rates, and The Federal Reserve Forecasts (Not Predictions) for 2013 AGENDA

8 The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. All index returns exclude reinvested dividends. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Data Source: Yahoo Finance. THE FIRST HALF Dec 28 Close 1, Jun 28 Close 1,606.28

9 Name/Company2013 S&P 500 Target Stephen Auth – Federated Investors1,660 Barry Knapp – Barclays Capital1,525 Jeffrey Knight – Putnam Investments1,490 Russ Koesterich – BlackRock1,545 David Kostin – Goldman Sachs1,575 Thomas Lee – JP Morgan Chase1,580 Tobias Levkovich – Citi Research1,615 Adam Parker – Morgan Stanley1,434 John Praveen – Prudential International1,600 Savita Subramanian – Bank of America1,600 GROUP AVERAGE1,562 (9.6% growth) Source: Barrons.com ORIGINAL FORECASTS 1,606 (12.6% growth) Revised 1,686 (16% growth) as of 7/31/13

10 COMPARING RETURNS Source: Yahoo Finance. Disclosures on following slide. YTD is up until 6/31/2013. Index2013 YTD Russell 2000 Growth17.05% Russell % S&P 500 Value14.33% Russell 2000 Value13.27% S&P % S&P 500 Growth11.04% MSCI EAFE2.18% Barclays Aggregate Bond-3.48% MSCI Emerging Markets-10.89%

11 DISCLOSURES The indices mentioned on the previous slide are unmanaged and not available for direct investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All data is sourced from Yahoo Finance and MSCI unless otherwise noted. S&P 500 measures the performance of large capitalization U.S. stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-value-weighted index of 500 stocks that are traded on the NYSE, AMEX, and NASDAQ. The weightings make each companys influence on the Index performance directly proportional to that companys market value. S&P 500 Growth and S&P 500 Value measure the performance of the growth and value styles of investing in large cap U.S. stocks. The indices are constructed by dividing the market capitalization of the S&P 500 Index into Growth and Value indices, using style factors to make the assignment. The Value Index contains those S&P 500 securities with a greater-than-average value orientation, while the Growth Index contains those securities with a greater-than average growth orientation. The indices are market-capitalization-weighted. The constituent securities are not mutually exclusive. Russell 2000 measures the performance of small capitalization U.S. stocks. The Russell 2000 is a market-value-weighted index of the 2,000 smallest stocks in the broad-market Russell 3000 Index. These securities are traded on the NYSE, AMEX, and NASDAQ. Russell 2000 Value and Russell 2000 Growth measure the performance of the growth and value styles of investing in small cap U.S. stocks. The indices are constructed by dividing the market capitalization of the Russell 2000 Index into Growth and Value indices, using style factors to make the assignment. The Value Index contains those Russell 2000 securities with a greater-than-average value orientation, while the Growth Index contains those securities with a greater-than-average growth orientation. Securities in the Value Index generally have lower price-to-book and price-earnings ratios than those in the Growth Index. The indices are market-capitalization-weighted. The constituent securities are not mutually exclusive. MSCI EAFE is a Morgan Stanley Capital International Index that is designed to measure the performance of the developed stock markets of Europe, Australasia, and the Far East. MSCI Emerging Markets is a Morgan Stanley Capital International Index that is designed to measure the performance of equity markets in 21 emerging countries around the world. Barclays Aggregate Bond Index (formerly the Lehman Brothers Aggregate Bond Index) includes U.S. government, corporate, and mortgage-backed securities with maturities of at least one year.

12 COMPARING HYPOTHETICAL RETURNS This is a hypothetical example only, and is not intended to represent any actual investment. Indexes are unmanaged and not available for direct investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. The Barclays Aggregate Bond Index includes U.S. government, corporate, and mortgage-backed securities with maturities of at least one year. The 50% Stock / 50% Bond blend is a hybrid of 50% S&P 500 and 50% Barclays Aggregate Bond Index. All index returns exclude reinvested dividends. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Data Source: Yahoo Finance. Standard & Poors 500: 4.7% Barclays Agg. Bond Index: 6.1% 50/50 Blend: 5.4%

13 RISK TOLERANCE

14 2013 So Far Factors Affecting the Stock Market and Economy AGENDA

15 Sources: Standard & Poors, Compustat, BEA, FactSet J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Data are as of 6/30/13. HEALTHY CORPORATIONS

16 Sources: Standard & Poors, Compustat, BEA, FactSet J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Data are as of 6/30/13. HEALTHY CORPORATIONS

17 Source: Census Bureau, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data are as of 6/30/13. HOUSING MARKET

18 Sources: National Association of Realtors, Standard & Poors, FHFA, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data are as of 6/30/13. HOUSING MARKET

19 Sources: National Association of Realtors, Standard & Poors, FHFA, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data are as of 6/30/13. HOUSING MARKET

20 Source: BEA, FRB, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. *2Q13 household debt service ratio and household net worth are J.P. Morgan Asset Management estimates. Values may not sum to 100% due to rounding. Data are as of 6/30/13. CONSUMERS

21 Source: BLS, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data are as of 6/30/13. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE Civilian Unemployment Rate – Seasonally Adjusted

22 Source: BLS, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data are as of 6/30/13. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE Employment – Total Private Payroll Total Job Gain/Loss (thousands)

23 GOVERNMENT SPENDING **Measured at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate. Sources: United States Commerce Department, online.wsj.com

24 Source: Yahoo Finance as of 06/28/2013. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) is a popular measure of the volatility of S&P 500 Index options. A high value corresponds to a more volatile market and therefore more costly options, which can be used to defray risk from this volatility by selling options. Often referred to as the fear index, it represents one measure of the markets expectation of volatility over the next 30-day period. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. VOLATILITY Flash Crash S&P Downgrades U.S. Credit Rating

25 PERIODS OF RECOVERY

26 2013 So Far Factors Affecting the Stock Market and Economy Bond Prices, Interest Rates, and The Federal Reserve AGENDA

27 Source: BLS.gov, online.wsj.com. Projections are based on opinions of analysts polled at the time of the survey. Real Gross Domestic Product at an annualized growth rate. Survey conducted June 7-11, The Wall Street Journal surveys a group of 56 economists throughout the year. FORECASTS: FED FUNDS TARGET RATE Historical Forecast

28 Hypothetical example for illustration only. Not intended to reflect any actual investment. BONDS AND INTEREST RATES 5% Interest Rate |Bond Price $1,000 Price Movements of a Hypothetical Bond

29 Source: Federal Reserve as of 06/30/2013. BONDS AND INTEREST RATES Rising Interest Rates Bond Bear Market Falling Interest Rates Bond Bull Market June 30, % Jan. 2, % Sept. 30, %

30 2013 So Far Factors Affecting the Stock Market and Economy Bond Prices, Interest Rates, and The Federal Reserve Forecasts (Not Predictions) for 2013 AGENDA

31 The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. All index returns exclude reinvested dividends. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Data Source: Yahoo Finance. SINCE THE 2007 PEAK

32 Source: FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data shown in log scale to best illustrate long-term index patterns. P/E ratios shown at price peaks and troughs use trailing four quarters of reported earnings and are show as a one year average. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Chart is for illustrative purposes only. Data are as of 6/30/13. HISTORY LESSON

33 YearS&P 500 Annual Return $1,000,000 Investment 4% draw %$630,000$590, %$793,800$703, %$912,870$768, %$931,127$744, %$1,080,107$823,374 HYPOTHETICAL EXAMPLE This chart assumes a $40,000/year withdrawal for income. S&P 500 annual return assume dividends included. Numbers have been rounded. Source: Yahoo Finance.

34 Past performance is not indicative of future returns. HISTORY LESSON In the 68 years beginning with 1946, the S&P 500 index has risen 10 percent or more, 23 times (during the first half of the year), according to data from S&P Dow Jones Indices. During those 23 years, the market rose the second half of the year 19 times. Eleven of those years, or nearly half, the S&P 500 rose at least 10 percent the second half of the year. Source: Steve Rothwell, The Associated Press

35 2013 S&P 500 Target 1,660 1,525 1,490 1,545 1,575 1,775 1,580 1,715 1,615 1,434 1,600 1,600 1,730 1,625 1,650 – 1,700 1,627 (12.4% growth) Sources: CNBC, Business Insider, Bespoke Investment Group FORECAST – S&P 500 1,686 (16% growth) as of 7/31/13

36 Source: BLS.gov, online.wsj.com. Projections are based on opinions of analysts polled at the time of the survey. Real Gross Domestic Product at an annualized growth rate. Survey conducted June 7-11, The Wall Street Journal surveys a group of 56 economists throughout the year. ANNUAL GDP – HISTORICAL & FORECAST

37 Source: online.wsj.com. Projections are based on opinions of analysts polled at the time of the survey. Real Gross Domestic Product at an annualized growth rate. The Wall Street Journal surveys a group of 56 economists throughout the year. Broad surveys on more than 10 major economic indicators are conducted monthly. FORECAST – U.S. ECONOMY Is the risk to your 2013 growth forecast more to the upside or the downside? December 2012 Survey June 2013 Survey

38 Source: The views displayed on this slide represent the opinions of Oppenheimer as of 6/30/13, are subject to change based on subsequent developments, are not intended as investment advice, and are not intended to predict or depict the performance of any investment. FORECAST Interest Rates U.S. Corporate Sector U.S. Housing Central Bank Policy U.S. Credit Global Growth Global Inflation U.S. Politics U.S. Consumer Eurozone Crisis

39 UNTIL NEXT TIME


Download ppt "Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser."

Similar presentations


Ads by Google