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TM. Buy low, Sell high… heres how we try to do it. Mark Riefer President TM.

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Presentation on theme: "TM. Buy low, Sell high… heres how we try to do it. Mark Riefer President TM."— Presentation transcript:

1 TM

2 Buy low, Sell high… heres how we try to do it. Mark Riefer President TM

3 Buy low, Sell high… TM Heres how we try to do it.

4 The Level Paths Tactical Allocation Strategy attempts to anticipate phases of the stock market cycle and position the portfolio accordingly. The Strategy simply takes the model we use for our individual stock portfolio and applies it to the economy and market as a whole. TM

5 Large Cap Blend EQUITY STRATEGY Investment Approach Our investment strategy is based on the rationale that stock price generally follows the direction of company profitability. The model seeks to capitalize on the profit cycle of select industry leaders. The model combines principles of Value Style and Growth Style Investing to identify both the early and the mature phases of the profit cycle for the companies selected. TM

6 FALLINGRISING Bad Value Managers Good Value Managers Bad Growth ManagersGood Growth Managers Growth Contrarians Positive Surprise Neglect Estimate Revision Negative Surprise Models EPS Momentum Estimate Revision Positive Surprise Models Earnings Event Earnings Expectations Life Cycle

7 1.Identify Phase in Economic Cycle 2.Identify Phase in Market Cycle 3.Attempt to anticipate the next Phase of the Market Cycle and Systematically Modify the Portfolio accordingly. The Level Paths Tactical Asset Allocation Process ©

8 Phase 4 RECESSION TROUGH RECESSION TROUGHEXPANSION RECESSION PEAK TROUGHEXPANSION RECESSION MARKET TROUGH MARKET ADVANCE MARKET TROUGH MARKET ADVANCE MARKET PEAK MARKET TROUGH MARKET ADVANCE MARKET PEAK MARKET DECLINE Minimum Stocks Maximum Stocks Phase 1 Economic Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 1 Market Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 1 Level Paths Management (All Stocks Portfolio) (All Stocks Portfolio) Phase 2 Economy Phase % Characterized by: - sharp decline in stock price in stock price and sharp rise and sharp rise in dividend in dividend yield. yield. - numerous earning earning misses and misses and lower to no lower to no guidance guidance60% - depends on number of number of stocks with stocks with positive positive earnings earnings 50% Characterized by: - many companies companies meeting or meeting or beating beating already already lowered lowered expectations expectations100% - depends on number of number of stocks with stocks with positive positive earnings earnings75% Characterized by: - companies beating beating expectations expectations in an in an improving improving cycle cycle100% - depends on number of number of stocks with stocks with positive positive earnings earnings 50% Characterized by: - significant decrease in decrease in rate of rate of earnings earnings increases increases75% - depends on number of number of stocks with stocks with positive positive earnings earnings 50%50% Characterized by: - many companies meeting or beating already lowered expectations50% Characterized by: - many companies meeting or beating already lowered expectations100%50% Characterized by: - many companies meeting or beating already lowered expectations100% - depends on number of stocks with positive earnings % Characterized by: - sharp decline in stock price and sharp rise in dividend yield. - numerous earning misses and lower to no guidance % Characterized by: - sharp decline in stock price and sharp rise in dividend yield. - numerous earning misses and lower to no guidance60% % Characterized by: - sharp decline in stock price and sharp rise in dividend yield. - numerous earning misses and lower to no guidance60% - depends on number of stocks with positive earnings 50%50% Characterized by: - significant decrease in rate of earnings increases50% Characterized by: - significant decrease in rate of earnings increases75%50% Characterized by: - significant decrease in rate of earnings increases75% - depends on number of stocks with positive earnings75%75% Characterized by: - companies beating expectations in an improving cycle75% Characterized by: - companies beating expectations in an improving cycle100%75% Characterized by: - companies beating expectations in an improving cycle100% - depends on number of stocks with positive earnings Economic Phases (We propose 4) ©

9 Market Level Paths Level Paths Management Management (All Stocks Portfolio) (All Stocks Portfolio) RECESSION TROUGH RECESSION TROUGHEXPANSION RECESSION PEAK TROUGHEXPANSION RECESSION MARKET TROUGH MARKET ADVANCE MARKET TROUGH MARKET ADVANCE MARKET PEAK MARKET TROUGH MARKET ADVANCE MARKET PEAK MARKET DECLINE Minimum Stocks Maximum Stocks Phase 1 Economic Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Economy 25-50% Characterized by: - sharp decline in stock price in stock price and sharp rise and sharp rise in dividend in dividend yield. yield. - numerous earning earning misses and misses and lower to no lower to no guidance guidance60% - depends on number of number of stocks with stocks with positive positive earnings earnings 50% Characterized by: - many companies companies meeting or meeting or beating beating already already lowered lowered expectations expectations100% - depends on number of number of stocks with stocks with positive positive earnings earnings75% Characterized by: - companies beating beating expectations expectations in an in an improving improving cycle cycle100% - depends on number of number of stocks with stocks with positive positive earnings earnings 50% Characterized by: - significant decrease in decrease in rate of rate of earnings earnings increases increases75% - depends on number of number of stocks with stocks with positive positive earnings earnings % Characterized by: - sharp decline in stock price and sharp rise in dividend yield. - numerous earning misses and lower to no guidance % Characterized by: - sharp decline in stock price and sharp rise in dividend yield. - numerous earning misses and lower to no guidance60% % Characterized by: - sharp decline in stock price and sharp rise in dividend yield. - numerous earning misses and lower to no guidance60% - depends on number of stocks with positive earnings50%75%50%50% Characterized by: - many companies meeting or beating already lowered expectations50% Characterized by: - many companies meeting or beating already lowered expectations100%50% Characterized by: - many companies meeting or beating already lowered expectations100% - depends on number of stocks with positive earnings75% Characterized by: - companies beating expectations in an improving cycle75% Characterized by: - companies beating expectations in an improving cycle100%75% Characterized by: - companies beating expectations in an improving cycle100% - depends on number of stocks with positive earnings50% Characterized by: - significant decrease in rate of earnings increases50% Characterized by: - significant decrease in rate of earnings increases75%50% Characterized by: - significant decrease in rate of earnings increases75% - depends on number of stocks with positive earnings Phase 4 Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Economic Phases (We propose 4) Where are we now? © Where do we think were headed next? Please contact us for a complementary consultation to discuss how this management model might help your portfolio.

10 Index Descriptions Fixed Income | Barclays Aggregate Index | Measures the changes in the fixed rate debt issues rated investment grade or higher by Moodys Investors Service, Standard and Poors, or Fitch Investors Service, in that order. All issues must have at least 1 year left to maturity and have an outstanding par value of at least $300 million. The Aggregate Index is comprised of the Government/Corporate, the Mortgage-Backed Securities, and the Asset-Backed Securities indices. International Equity | MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, Far East) | A free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the United States & Canada. The EAFE consists of the country indices of 21 developed nations. With Net Dividends: This series approximates the minimum possible dividend reinvestment. The dividend is reinvested after deduction of withholding tax. Large Cap | Standard & Poors 500 (S&P 500) | Measures changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. It consists of 400 industrial, 40 utility, 20 transportation and 40 financial companies listed on US market exchanges (mostly NYSE issues). It is a capitalization-weighted index calculated on a total return basis with dividend reinvested. The S&P 500 represents approximately 68% of the investable U.S. equity market. Large Cap Growth | S&P/BARRA 500 Growth index is constructed by dividing the stocks in the S&P 500 Index according to price-to-book ratios. The Growth indices contain stocks with higher price-to-book ratios. The indices are market-capitalization-weighted, and their constituents are mutually exclusive. Large Cap Value | S&P/BARRA 500 Value index is constructed by dividing the stocks in the S&P 500 Index according to price-to-book ratios. The Value index contains stocks with lower price-to-book ratios. The indices are market capitalization- weighted, and their constituents are mutually exclusive. Small Cap | Russell 2000 Index | Measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index, which represents approximately 8% of the investable U.S. equity market. As of the reconstitution on December 31, 2008, the average market capitalization was $897 million; the median market capitalization was $321 million. The index had a total market capitalization range of $3.3 billion to $70 million. Small Cap Growth | Russell 2000 Growth Index | Measures the performance of those Russell 2000 companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell 2000 measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index. As of December 31, 2008, the average market capitalization was approximately $918 million; the median market capitalization was approximately $321 million. The index had a total market capitalization range of approximately $3.2 billion to $70 million. Small Cap Value | Russell 2000 Value Index | Measures the performance of those Russell 2000 companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. The Russell 2000 measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index. As of December 31, 2008, the average market capitalization was approximately $858 million; the median market capitalization was approximately $318 million. The index had a total market capitalization range of approximately $3.3 billion to $70 million. * The Russell 1000®, Russell 2000®, Russell 3000®, Russell 1000 Growth®, Russell Midcap®, Russell 2000 Value® and Russell 2000 Growth® indices are trademarks of the Frank Russell Co. Index returns do not reflect the deductions of fees, trading costs or other expenses. The Index is referred to for informational purposes only: the composition of each Index is different from the composition of the accounts managed by the investment manager. Investors may not make direct investments into any index. Past performance may not be indicative of future results.

11 Information presented is believed to be factual and up-to-date and was obtained from sources known to be reliable. It should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the author as of the date of presentation and are subject to change. The S&P 500 Index is an index, with dividends reinvested, of 500 issues representative of leading companies in the U.S. large cap securities market representative sample of leading companies in leading industries). Russell investments (02/09) None of the graphs or charts contained in this presentation represents the performance achieved by any client of Level Paths Investment Advisers. They are designed to illustrate Level Paths tactical asset allocation strategy. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. Changes in investment strategies, contributions or withdrawals may materially alter the performance and results of your portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future success. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment will either be suitable or profitable for a client's investment portfolio. Historical performance results for investment indexes and/or categories, generally do not reflect the deduction of transaction and/or custodial charges or the deduction of an investment-management fee, the incurrence of which would have the effect of decreasing historical performance results. Economic factors, market conditions, and investment strategies will affect the performance of any portfolio and there are no assurances that it will match or outperform any particular benchmark. Information presented does not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice, but is limited to the dissemination of general information on products and services. This information should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned herein. Level Paths LLC is registered as an investment adviser with the state of Missouri. The firm only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. TM


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