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See Slide Master to replace with customer logo. 2 Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser. Richmond Brothers, Inc. does not provide.

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Presentation on theme: "See Slide Master to replace with customer logo. 2 Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser. Richmond Brothers, Inc. does not provide."— Presentation transcript:

1 See Slide Master to replace with customer logo

2 2 Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser. Richmond Brothers, Inc. does not provide tax or legal advice; consult your tax or legal advisor regarding your particular situation. The indices mentioned in this seminar are unmanaged and not available for direct investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Opinions, estimates, forecasts, and statements of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. We believe the information contained in this commentary has been obtained from sources that are reliable. This presentation is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. This presentation has been adapted from Platinum Advisor Marketing Strategies, LLC. Formalities

3 3 See Slide Master to replace with customer logo A Quick Review of the First Half A Basic Investing Refresher Course Is the Economic Recovery In Trouble? What Could Happen With Bond Prices? Has The Bull Finished Running? Second Half Expectations A Quick Review of Last Year (Summer ‘13 – Summer ‘14) Review of Richmond Brothers’ Decisions in Your Portfolio Agenda

4 4 See Slide Master to replace with customer logo The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. All index returns exclude reinvested dividends. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Data Source: Yahoo Finance. All data as of June 30, First Half Snapshot Jan 2 Open 1, June 30 Close 1,960.23

5 5 See Slide Master to replace with customer logo Name/Company2014 S&P 500 TargetRevised Forecast David Bianco, Deutsche Bank1,850Reiterated Brian Belski, BMO1,900Reiterated Barry Knapp, Barclays1,900No Update Tobias Levkovich, Citigroup1,9752,000 David Kostin, Goldman Sachs1,900Reiterated Michael Kurtz, Nomura1,925No Update Sean Darby, Jefferies1,950No Update Jonathan Golub, RBC1,9502,075 Julian Emanuel, UBS1,950No Update Andrew Garthwaite, Credit Suisse1,9602,020 Savita Subramanian, BofA2,000Reiterated Adam Parker, Morgan Stanley2,014Reiterated John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer2,014Reiterated Tom Lee, JP Morgan2,075No Update GROUP AVERAGE1, Sources: Business Insider, MarketWatch, CNBC Past performance does not predict future results Forecasts June 30, 2014 Close:

6 6 See Slide Master to replace with customer logo A Quick Review of the First Half A Basic Investing Refresher Course Agenda

7 7 See Slide Master to replace with customer logo Stocks Ownership shares of a company Benefits & Drawbacks Can increase wealth through growth Help fight inflation May be volatile Can lose entire value

8 8 See Slide Master to replace with customer logo Bonds Loans made to a corporation, government, or organization Investment grade bonds: AAA to BBB- Benefits & Drawbacks Good sources of investment income Generally, less volatile than stocks Bond prices may fall with rising interest rates Vulnerable to inflation risk

9 9 See Slide Master to replace with customer logo YTD MSCI EM 39.78% Barclays Aggregate Bond 5.24% MSCI EM 79.02% Russell 2000 Growth 29.09% Barclays Aggregate Bond 7.84% MSCI EM 18.63% Russell 2000 Growth 42.77% S&P 500 Growth 6.42% MSCI EAFE 11.17% Russell 2000 Value % Russell 2000 Growth 34.47% Russell % S&P 500 Growth 4.65% Russell 2000 Value 18.05% Russell % S&P % S&P 500 Growth 9.13% Russell % MSCI EAFE 31.78% Russell 2000 Value 24.50% S&P % S&P 500 Value 17.68% Russell 2000 Value 31.96% S&P 500 Value 5.65% Russell 2000 Growth 7.05% S&P 500 Growth % S&P 500 Growth 31.57% MSCI EM 19.20% S&P 500 Value -0.48% MSCI EAFE 17.32% S&P 500 Growth 30.14% MSCI EM 4.80% Barclays Aggregate Bond 6.97% S&P % Russell % S&P 500 Value 15.10% Russell 2000 Growth -2.91% Russell % S&P % Russell 2000 Value 3.16% S&P % Russell 2000 Growth % S&P % S&P % Russell % S&P % S&P 500 Value 28.28% MSCI EAFE 2.95% S&P 500 Value 1.99% S&P 500 Value % S&P 500 Value 21.17% S&P 500 Growth 15.05% Russell 2000 Value -5.50% S&P 500 Growth 14.61% MSCI EAFE 23.30% Barclays Aggregate Bond 2.79% Russell % MSCI EAFE % Russell 2000 Value 20.58% MSCI EAFE 7.75% MSCI EAFE % Russell 2000 Growth 14.59% Barclays Aggregate Bond -2.00% Russell % Russell 2000 Value -9.78% MSCI EM % Barclays Aggregate Bond 5.93% Barclays Aggregate Bond 6.54% MSCI EM % Barclays Aggregate Bond 4.21% MSCI EM -2.30% Russell 2000 Growth 1.9% Source: Google Finance, MSCI Barra. Data as of Disclosures on following slide. Comparing Returns

10 10 See Slide Master to replace with customer logo The indices mentioned on the previous slide are unmanaged and not available for direct investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All data is sourced from Yahoo Finance and MSCI unless otherwise noted. S&P 500 measures the performance of large capitalization U.S. stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-value-weighted index of 500 stocks that are traded on the NYSE, AMEX, and NASDAQ. The weightings make each company’s influence on the Index performance directly proportional to that company’s market value. S&P 500 Growth and S&P 500 Value measure the performance of the growth and value styles of investing in large cap U.S. stocks. The indices are constructed by dividing the market capitalization of the S&P 500 Index into Growth and Value indices, using style “factors” to make the assignment. The Value Index contains those S&P 500 securities with a greater-than-average value orientation, while the Growth Index contains those securities with a greater-than average growth orientation. The indices are market-capitalization-weighted. The constituent securities are not mutually exclusive. Russell 2000 measures the performance of small capitalization U.S. stocks. The Russell 2000 is a market-value-weighted index of the 2,000 smallest stocks in the broad-market Russell 3000 Index. These securities are traded on the NYSE, AMEX, and NASDAQ. Russell 2000 Value and Russell 2000 Growth measure the performance of the growth and value styles of investing in small cap U.S. stocks. The indices are constructed by dividing the market capitalization of the Russell 2000 Index into Growth and Value indices, using style “factors” to make the assignment. The Value Index contains those Russell 2000 securities with a greater-than-average value orientation, while the Growth Index contains those securities with a greater-than-average growth orientation. Securities in the Value Index generally have lower price-to-book and price-earnings ratios than those in the Growth Index. The indices are market-capitalization-weighted. The constituent securities are not mutually exclusive. MSCI EAFE is a Morgan Stanley Capital International Index that is designed to measure the performance of the developed stock markets of Europe, Australasia, and the Far East. MSCI Emerging Markets is a Morgan Stanley Capital International Index that is designed to measure the performance of equity markets in 21 emerging countries around the world. Barclays Aggregate Bond Index (formerly the Lehman Brothers Aggregate Bond Index) includes U.S. government, corporate, and mortgage-backed securities with maturities of at least one year. Diversification cannot guarantee a profit or protect your portfolio from losses in a period of declining prices. Disclosures

11 11 See Slide Master to replace with customer logo How Much Risk Are You Willing to Take?

12 12 See Slide Master to replace with customer logo A Quick Review of the First Half A Basic Investing Refresher Course Is the Economic Recovery In Trouble? Agenda

13 13 See Slide Master to replace with customer logo Source: online.wsj.com. Projections are based on opinions of analysts polled at the time of the survey. Real Gross Domestic Product at an annualized growth rate. The Wall Street Journal surveys a group of nearly 50 economists on a monthly basis throughout the year. Forecast Edition: June 2014 GDP – Historical & Forecast

14 14 See Slide Master to replace with customer logo Source: BEA, FRB, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. *2Q14 household debt service ratio and household net worth are J.P. Morgan Asset Management estimates. Values may not sum to 100% due to rounding. Data are as of 6/30/14. Household Finances Household Debt Service RatioHousehold Net Worth Debt Payments as % of Disposable Personal Income, Seasonally Adjusted Billions USD, Not Seasonally Adjusted

15 15 See Slide Master to replace with customer logo Average Hourly Earnings Growth Year-Over-Year % Change for Production and Nonsupervisory Workers Source: BLS, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data are as of 6/30/14. Worker Earnings

16 16 See Slide Master to replace with customer logo Source: BLS, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data are as of 6/30/14. Employment Civilian Unemployment RateEmployment – Total Private Payroll Seasonally AdjustedTotal Job Gain/Loss (Thousands)

17 17 See Slide Master to replace with customer logo Light Vehicle Sales Millions, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Source: BEA, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Auto Sales

18 18 See Slide Master to replace with customer logo Source: Census Bureau, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Housing Housing Starts Thousands, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

19 19 See Slide Master to replace with customer logo CPI and Core CPI % Change vs. Prior Year, Seasonally Adjusted Source: BLS, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. CPI used is CPI-U and values shown are % change vs. 1 year ago and reflect May 2014 CPI data. Data are as of 6/30/14. Inflation 50-yr. Avg. May 2014

20 20 See Slide Master to replace with customer logo Is the risk to your 2014 growth forecast more to the upside or the downside? Source: online.wsj.com. Projections are based on opinions of analysts polled at the time of the survey. The Wall Street Journal surveys a group of nearly 50 economists on a monthly basis throughout the year. Forecast Edition: June 2014 Forecast – U.S. Economy DownsideUpside

21 21 See Slide Master to replace with customer logo A Quick Review of the First Half A Basic Investing Refresher Course Is the Economic Recovery In Trouble? What Could Happen With Bond Prices? Agenda

22 22 See Slide Master to replace with customer logo Source: online.wsj.com. Projections are based on opinions of analysts polled at the time of the survey. Results displayed in descending order by number of responses. The Wall Street Journal surveys a group of nearly 50 economists on a monthly basis throughout the year. Forecast Edition: June 2014 Forecast: Interest Rates When will the Fed make its first increase in the Federal Funds Rate?

23 23 See Slide Master to replace with customer logo A Quick Review of the First Half A Basic Investing Refresher Course Is the Economic Recovery In Trouble? What Could Happen With Bond Prices? Has The Bull Finished Running? Agenda

24 24 See Slide Master to replace with customer logo Corporate Cash as a % Current AssetsCash Returned to Shareholders S&P 500 Companies – Cash and Cash Equivalents, Quarterly $bn, S&P 500 Companies, Rolling 4-Quarter Averages Source: Standard & Poor’s, FRB, Bloomberg, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Securities. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Healthy Corporations

25 25 See Slide Master to replace with customer logo Headwinds:Tailwinds: Rising Interest Rate Environment Historical Trends P/E Ratios Are In-Line With Historical Averages Healthy Corporate Cash and Profits Stabilizing and Expanding Economy Investor Optimism Geopolitical Tensions Rising Energy & Food Prices P/E Ratios Are In-Line With Historical Averages The Case for Equities

26 26 See Slide Master to replace with customer logo A Quick Review of the First Half A Basic Investing Refresher Course Is the Economic Recovery In Trouble? What Could Happen With Bond Prices? Has The Bull Finished Running? Second Half Expectations Agenda

27 27 See Slide Master to replace with customer logo Second Half Forecast Source: The views displayed on this slide represent the opinions of Oppenheimer as of 06/30/14, are subject to change based on subsequent developments, are not intended as investment advice, and are not intended to predict or depict the performance of any investment. Interest Rates U.S. Business Investment Global Economic Growth Credit Consumer Global Economic Growth U.S. Housing Inflation Geopolitical Risks Cyclical Slowdown In Emerging Markets

28 28 See Slide Master to replace with customer logo A Quick Review of the First Half A Basic Investing Refresher Course Is the Economic Recovery In Trouble? What Could Happen With Bond Prices? Has The Bull Finished Running? Second Half Expectations A Quick Review of Last Year (Summer ‘13 – Summer ‘14) Agenda

29 29 See Slide Master to replace with customer logo Quick Review of Last Year & RB Decisions Summer 2013 changes in your portfolio Fall/winter 2013/2014 decisions May 2014 hold steady NO “Sell in May?” Richmond Brothers thoughts and allocations going into 2nd half 2014

30 30 See Slide Master to replace with customer logo Until Next Time… Questions? Or Call:


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