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Commonwealth Financial Network ® does not provide legal or tax advice. You should consult a legal or tax professional regarding your individual situation.

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Presentation on theme: "Commonwealth Financial Network ® does not provide legal or tax advice. You should consult a legal or tax professional regarding your individual situation."— Presentation transcript:

1 Commonwealth Financial Network ® does not provide legal or tax advice. You should consult a legal or tax professional regarding your individual situation. Securities offered through Commonwealth Financial Network ®, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser. Presented by Matthew A. Parson 525 N 9 th St, Cottage Grove Oregon (541) Second Quarter 2013 Market Overview

2 Economic Summary: Second Quarter 2013 Milestones –Equity markets hit-all time high (again) –Bernankes tapering comments send tremors through all markets –Germany drops austerity and embraces stimulus –Japan turns to U.S. shale gas to cut soaring fuel costs –Obama fires IRS chief over targeting conservative and some liberal groups –Apple sells $17 billion in record bond deal –Brazilian social unrest emerges –Gold falls to three-year low –Housing recovery appears strong despite rise in rates –China growth continues to decline Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

3 Economic Themes Equity/fixed income Housing Credit and banking Employment Consumer behavior Business and manufacturing activity Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

4 S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average: Q Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

5 Q2 2013: Equity Returns by Style Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. ValueBlendGrowth Large Mid Small Source: Commonwealth Asset Management/Morningstar Direct

6 Q2 2013: Fixed Income Returns by Style Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results Q2 High-Yield High-Yield U.S. Treasury 9.81 Emerging Markets High-Yield –1.35 Emerging Markets Emerging Markets Corporates 8.15 High-Yield Mortgage –1.92 Corporates Corporates 9.00 Emerging Markets 8.02 Foreign Sovereign US Treasury –1.92 Foreign Sovereign U.S. Core 6.54 U.S. Core 7.84 Corporates 9.82 US Core –2.32 U.S. Core 5.93 U.S. Treasury 5.87 Mortgage 6.14 U.S. Core 4.21 Corporates –3.31 Mortgage 5.76 Mortgage 5.67 Foreign Sovereign 4.78 Mortgage 2.59 Foreign Sovereign –4.09 U.S. Treasury –3.57 Foreign Sovereign 4.05 High-Yield 4.38 U.S. Treasury 1.99 Emerging Markets –6.03 Source: Commonwealth Asset Management/Morningstar Direct

7 Treasury Yields Yield up = Price down

8 Net Flows into Bank-Loan Funds

9 Fixed Income Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

10 Fixed Income continued Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

11 Fixed Income continued Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Announcement

12 Housing: Prices and Supply

13 Credit and Banking

14 Credit and Banking continued

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16 Employment Source: Commonwealth Asset Management/Bloomberg Expanding

17 Employment continued

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19 Business and Manufacturing Activity

20 Business and Manufacturing Activity continued

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23 Conclusions Job growth was reasonable in Q2; unemployment remained at 7.6 percent, but payroll growth was strong. Inflation is not a large concern, for now. ISM indices showed strong movements over the quarter. Treasury rates moved aggressively higher across the curve. Dividend sectors, especially utilities, remain relatively expensive, despite a sell-off with the rise in rates. The housing recovery seems to be fully under way. GDP growth could surprise to the upside.

24 Looking Forward... Key themes to monitor –Employment improvement necessary for sustained recovery –Earnings season for Q2beat or miss estimates? –Can housing continue its upward trend? –Will Europe emerge from recession? –Ongoing debt ceiling debates –Emerging markets manufacturing in Q2 –Fed tapering and direction of Treasury rates

25 Disclosure Investing involves risks, including loss of principal amount invested due to market fluctuations. All indices are unmanaged, and investors cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The Bank of America Merrill Lynch U.S. Corporate Index tracks the performance of U.S. dollar-denominated investment-grade corporate debt publicly issued in the U.S. domestic market. The Merrill Lynch Municipal Master Index tracks the performance of U.S. dollar-denominated investment-grade tax- exempt debt publicly issued by U.S. states and territories, and their political subdivisions, in the U.S. domestic market. The Bank of America/Merrill Lynch High-Yield Master II Index tracks the performance of U.S. dollar-denominated below-investment-grade corporate debt publicly issued in the U.S. domestic market. International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability. The commodities industries can be significantly affected by commodity prices, world events, import controls, worldwide competition, government regulations, and economic conditions.


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