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Commonwealth Financial Network ® does not provide legal or tax advice. You should consult a legal or tax professional regarding your individual situation.

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Presentation on theme: "Commonwealth Financial Network ® does not provide legal or tax advice. You should consult a legal or tax professional regarding your individual situation."— Presentation transcript:

1 Commonwealth Financial Network ® does not provide legal or tax advice. You should consult a legal or tax professional regarding your individual situation. Securities and advisory services offered through Commonwealth Financial Network ®, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser. Presented by Matthew A. Parsons 525 N 9 th St., Cottage Grove, Oregon (541) First-Quarter 2013 Market Overview

2 Economic Summary: First Quarter 2013 Milestones –Equity markets hit all-time high –Cyprus seeks bailout of 10 billion euros and levies haircut to depositors –Senate passes stopgap bill to head off U.S. government shutdown –Venezuelas Chavez dies after battle with cancer –Italian election shakes markets with uncertainty –Opposition to continued bond buying grows within Fed –American Airlines and US Airways boards approve merger –Dell announces LBO deal to go private –Q4 GDP revisions better than expected –Housing recovery takes hold, surprising investors Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

3 Economic Themes Equity/Fixed income Housing Credit and banking Employment Consumer behavior Business and manufacturing activity Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

4 S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average: Q Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

5 Q1 2013: Equity Returns by Style Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: Commonwealth Asset Management, Bloomberg

6 2012: Fixed Income Returns by Style Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results Q1 High-Yield High-Yield U.S. Treasury 9.81 Emerging Markets High-Yield 1.93 Emerging Markets Emerging Markets Corporates 8.15 High-Yield Corporates –0.11 Corporates Corporates 9.00 Emerging Markets 8.02 Foreign Sovereign U.S. Core –0.12 Foreign Sovereign U.S. Core 6.54 U.S. Core 7.84 Corporates 9.82 U.S. Treasury –0.19 U.S. Core 5.93 U.S. Treasury 5.87 Mortgage 6.14 U.S. Core 4.21 Mortgage –1.44 Mortgage 5.76 Mortgage 5.67 Foreign Sovereign 4.78 Mortgage 2.59 Foreign Sovereign –2.20 U.S. Treasury –3.57 Foreign Sovereign 4.05 High-Yield 4.38 U.S. Treasury 1.99 Emerging Markets –2.82 Source: Commonwealth Asset Management, Bloomberg

7 Fixed Income Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

8 Fixed Income continued Love Affair with Income and High-Yield Source: Bloomberg, Commonwealth Asset Management

9 Fixed Income continued Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

10 Fixed Income continued Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Announcement

11 Housing: Prices and Supply

12 Housing: Housing Affordability

13 Credit and Banking

14

15 Credit and Banking continued

16 Employment Source: Commonwealth Asset Management, Bloomberg Strong!

17 Employment continued

18

19 Business and Manufacturing Activity

20 Strong move!

21 Business and Manufacturing Activity continued

22

23 Conclusions Job growth was strong in Q1; unemployment fell to 7.6 percent. Inflation is not a large concern, for now. ISM indices showed strong movements over the quarter. Industrial production remains strong. Dividend sectors, especially utilities, remain relatively expensive. Decreased savings and credit expansion could create a tailwind for the economy. The housing recovery seems to be fully under way. Cyprus was no more than a speed bump.

24 Looking Forward... Key themes to monitor –Employment improvement necessary for sustained recovery –Earnings season for Q1 (beat or miss estimates?) –Housing starts and prices in 2013 –European recovery: Is it sustainable? –Direction of ISM and Labor indices over coming months –Ongoing debt ceiling debates –Housing market recovery and translation to GDP –Emerging markets manufacturing in Q2 –Fed discussions on monetary stimulus

25 Disclosure Investing involves risks, including loss of principal amount invested due to market fluctuations. All indices are unmanaged, and investors cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The Bank of America Merrill Lynch US Corporate Index tracks the performance of U.S. dollar-denominated investment-grade corporate debt publicly issued in the U.S. domestic market. The Merrill Lynch Municipal Master Index tracks the performance of U.S. dollar-denominated investment-grade tax- exempt debt publicly issued by U.S. states and territories, and their political subdivisions, in the U.S. domestic market. The Bank of America/Merrill Lynch High Yield Master II Index tracks the performance of U.S. dollar-denominated below-investment-grade corporate debt publicly issued in the U.S. domestic market. International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability. The commodities industries can be significantly affected by commodity prices, world events, import controls, worldwide competition, government regulations, and economic conditions.


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