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Climbing the Wall of Worry: U.S. Economic and Market Outlook. The views expressed in this presentation are those of the investment professional and are.

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Presentation on theme: "Climbing the Wall of Worry: U.S. Economic and Market Outlook. The views expressed in this presentation are those of the investment professional and are."— Presentation transcript:

1 Climbing the Wall of Worry: U.S. Economic and Market Outlook. The views expressed in this presentation are those of the investment professional and are subject to change at any time. These views do not necessarily reflect the views of Pioneer Investments or others in the Pioneer Investments organization. January 20, 2013

2 January 2013 | Page 2 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Agenda Overview: Sunny with a Chance of Tornados U.S. GDP Outlook: Slow Growth Should Continue Inflation: Limited Near-Term Risk Asset Prices: Where is the Relative Value?

3 January 2013 | Page 3 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Executive Summary The U.S. economy does not appear to be heading into recession (although it may be pushed into one) The global economic outlook is beginning to show signs of improvement U.S. fiscal policy represents the greatest single source of economic and market risk U.S. inflation appears likely to remain subdued in the near term Valuations discount a very pessimistic macroeconomic outlook –Investors appear to be placing a very high value on safety and liquidity

4 January 2013 | Page 4 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The Global Economic Backdrop Appears to be Improving

5 January 2013 | Page 5 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. U.S. Economic Outlook – Key Points Slow growth should continue unless there is an external shock The economy is not heading into a business cycle recession –Rising employment and asset prices are tailwinds –Private sector balance sheets and incomes are strong –We dont see the signs of excess which normally signal an impending recession Washington represents the primary source of risk –The fiscal cliff deal merely postponed difficult decisions –The debt ceiling, spending sequesters, and lack of a budget represent significant first-quarter challenges –Failure to curb the growth of entitlement spending is likely to lead to severe problems in the future and ratings downgrades in 2013

6 January 2013 | Page 6 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The Square Root (Slow Growth) Recovery/Expansion Continues Fourth quarter growth will be lowbut its just volatility around the trend

7 January 2013 | Page 7 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Quarterly Contribution to Annualized U.S. GDP Growth by Sector Inventories, Trade, and Government will contribute less in Q4 +5% -5% +5% -5% +5% -5%

8 January 2013 | Page 8 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Employment is Growing…Slowly, Perhaps, but Steadily

9 January 2013 | Page 9 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Home Prices Appear To be Rising in Most Cities This is important for consumer wealth and confidence

10 January 2013 | Page 10 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. We Expect The Rebound in New Home Construction to Continue Positive for both employment and GDP

11 January 2013 | Page 11 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. We Expect Auto Sales to Remain Strong

12 January 2013 | Page 12 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The ISM Indexes Are Signaling Economic Acceleration Continuing a cyclical pattern of seasonal soft patches and strengthening

13 January 2013 | Page 13 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The Index of Leading Economic Indicators Is (Still) Rising The rate of increase is consistent with modest GDP growth

14 January 2013 | Page 14 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. At Current Levels, Energy Price Pose Little Risk for the Economy

15 January 2013 | Page 15 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. US Monetary Policy Remains Very Accommodative We expect real interest rates to remain below zero for several more years

16 January 2013 | Page 16 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Corporate Borrowing Costs Remain Very Low Companies have been able to refinance debt, reduce interest expense

17 January 2013 | Page 17 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Business Profits are High 2012 will almost certainly be the best year ever for S&P 500 earnings

18 January 2013 | Page 18 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Agenda Overview: Sunny with a Chance of Tornados U.S. GDP Outlook: Slow Growth Should Continue Inflation: Limited Near-Term Risk Asset Prices: Where is the Relative Value?

19 January 2013 | Page 19 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inflation is Not a Near-Term Concern…Nor is Deflation Energy prices may continue to make headline inflation volatile

20 January 2013 | Page 20 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. US Core Inflation is Restrained by Modest Unit Labor Cost Growth

21 January 2013 | Page 21 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Agenda Overview: Sunny with a Chance of Tornados U.S. GDP Outlook: Slow Growth Should Continue Inflation: Limited Near-Term Risk Asset Prices: Where is the Relative Value?

22 January 2013 | Page 22 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Fundamentals dont support a broadly bullish outlook on Commodities Most commodities are priced well above the cost of production

23 January 2013 | Page 23 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Nominal Treasury Yields Remain Near All-Time Lows

24 January 2013 | Page 24 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. U.S. TIPS Yields Are Near All-Time Lows Negative TIPS yields suggests investors are very risk averse

25 January 2013 | Page 25 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Corporate Bond Credit Spreads Remain Above-Average And well above the projected default rate

26 January 2013 | Page 26 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. S&P 500 Valuations Appear Relatively Inexpensive versus History

27 January 2013 | Page 27 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Equities Appear Very Inexpensive Relative to Bonds

28 January 2013 | Page 28 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Valuations – Key Points We Believe: Commodities Generally expensive… Fixed Income Safety and liquidity (Treasuries) appear richly valued –Little compensation for either current inflation or inflation risk Corporate (and municipal) bonds are priced for higher default rates than we consider likely Equities Inexpensive relative to historic averages, very inexpensive relative to bonds

29 January 2013 | Page 29 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investment Suitability Is Important There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. The views expressed in this presentation are those of the investment professional and are subject to change at any time. These views do not necessarily reflect the views of Pioneer Investments or others in the Pioneer Investments organization. Neither Pioneer, nor its representatives are legal or tax advisors. In addition, Pioneer does not provide advice or recommendations. The investments you choose should correspond to your financial needs, goals, and risk tolerance. For assistance in determining your financial situation, please consult an investment professional. There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall return or outperform a non diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

30 January 2013 | Page 30 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Glossary of Terms The consumer price index (CPI) is a statistical time-series measure of a weighted average of prices of a specified set of goods and services purchased by consumers. The CPI measure of core inflation systematically excludes food and energy prices because they are highly volatile. The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances (federal funds) at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight. The Goldman Sachs Commodity Index is a composite index of commodity sector returns, representing an unleveraged, long-only investment in commodity futures that is broadly diversified across the spectrum of commodities. The returns are calculated on a fully-collateralized basis with full reinvestment. The combination of these attributes provides investors with a representative and realistic picture of realizable returns attainable in the commodities markets. Government Bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the US government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. The Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) index is a generally recognized index of several variables such as average workweek production and manufacturing, jobless claims and other statistics used to help identify turning points in US economic activity. The Barclays Capital Baa Credit Index is an unmanaged index consisting of bonds in the Industrial, Utility, Finance and non- corporate sectors rated Baa by Moody's. It is equivalent to a BBB rating by Merrill Lynch. The Barclays Capital Aa Credit Index is a sub-set of the Lehman US Credit Index. This AA investment-grade rating is composed of obligations judged to be of high quality and subject to very low credit risk. This is equivalent to a Merrill Lynch AA rating. The Merrill Lynch BB US High Yield Index is a subset of The Merrill Lynch US High Yield Index including all securities rated BB1 through BB3, inclusive. The Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index (the S&P 500) is a commonly used measure of the broad U.S. stock market. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (S&P/CSI) is a market capitalization-weighted composite of 9 underlying Census Division indices, 20 individual metropolitan markets, and two market capitalization-weighted composite metro-area indices. The composite index weights reflect the aggregate value of single-family housing stock in each of the underlying regions or metropolitan areas. A Treasury Inflation-Protected Security (TIPS) is identical to a treasury bond except that principal and coupon payments are adjusted to eliminate the effects of inflation. Indices are unmanaged and it is not possible to invest directly in an index.

31 January 2013 | Page 31 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Pioneer Investments 60 State Street Boston, Massachusetts us.pioneerinvestments.com ©2012 Pioneer Investments


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