1. Species Distribution Modeling
Model distributions of plants & animals
Identify centers of endemism
Identify potential hidden areas of endemism

2. Focal Taxa: Species Endemic to Project Area

3. Taxonomic Groups Group # of Species # of Records Birds 80 2,182
Mammals 57
665
Amphibians
188
1,588
Plants
~405
~4,000

4. Unreviewed Amphibian Localities

5. Plant Groups Cyathaceae Passifloraceae Brunneliaceae Acanthaceae
Onagraceae - Fuchsia
Fabaceae - Inga
Campanulaceae
Ericaceae
Loasaceae
Marcgraviaceae
Aquifoliaceae
Chrysobalanaceae
Anacardiaceae
Malpighiaceae
Mimosaceae- Mimosa
12 families + 3 genera

6. Distribution Modeling
DEDUCTIVE
INDUCTIVE
Environmental Data
Specialist’s Knowledge
Localities
Species-Environment Relationship
Spatial Model
Environmental
Data
Specialist Review
Range Prediction

7. Inductive Modeling Details
Environmental Data
WorldClim climate data
Mean Diurnal Range
Isothermality
Precipitation of Wettest Month
Precipitation of Driest Month
Precipitation Seasonality
Digital Elevation Data
Elevation, slope, exposure
MODIS Vegetation/Tree Cover Variables
Averaged
Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer

8. Sample MODIS Data

9. Inductive Modeling Details
Maximum Entropy
Proven in three comparative studies
Tested in diverse conditions
Does well with small samples
Software publicly available
Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer

10. Deductive Modeling Details
Variables
Elevational range
Mountain range
Estimated range of a population
Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer

11. Steps I Select species Identify sources of localities Request data
Peru/Bolivia: support digitization
Compile data
Remove duplicate records
Georeference localities
First cut QC
Remove/correct obvious errors

12. Unreviewed Plant Data

13. Steps II Second cut QC Run trial models Third cut QC Run final models
Specialists review localities
Run trial models
Select final input variables
Third cut QC
Remove/correct outliers in environmental space
Run final models
Remove overpredicted area

14. Versicolored Barbet, Eubucco versicolor

15. Steps II Second cut QC Run trial models Third cut QC Run final models
Specialists review localities
Run trial models
Select final input variables
Third cut QC
Remove/correct outliers in environmental space
Run final models
Remove overpredicted area

16. Daphne's Oldfield Mouse, Thomasomys daphne

17. Incan Shrew Opossum, Lestoros inca
Photo by B. Patterson

18. Hooded Mountain-Toucan, Andigena cucullata

19. Golden-collared Tanager, Iridosornis jelskii

20. Selva Cacique, Cacicus koepckeae

21. Centers of Endemism - Birds

22. Mammals

23. Amphibians

24. Next Step: Aggregate Data to ID Endemism Centers
Control for range size
Control for collecting bias
 Much more accurate distribution maps for meso-scale conservation.
Source: Nelson et al. 1990

25. Then … Predict Hidden Areas of Endemism
Modeling
Endemism centers
Independent environmental data layers
June workshop to define methods

26. Collaborators Modelers Pilar Hernandez Heidi Quintana Aldo Soto
Carolina Tovar
Data Managers
Lily Paniagua
Martin Timaná
Carlos Zambrana
Data Reviewers
César Aguilar
Jesús Córdova
Irma Franke
Sebastian Herzog
Daniel Lane
John O’Neill
Victor Pacheco
Lily Rodríguez
Thómas Valqui
+ many plant systematists

27. Sources of Locality Information
Natural History Museums
The Academy of Natural Sciences
American Natural History Museum
Armonia
British Museum
Carnegie Museum of Natural History
Centro de Datos para la Conservación - Perú
Colección Boliviana de Fauna
Copenhagan University
Delaware Museum of Natural History
Field Museum of Natural History
Fundacion Amigos de la Naturaleza
Louisiana State University, Museum of Natural Science
Noel Kempff Mercado Natural History Museum
United States National Museum of Natural History
Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos
University of California, Berkeley, Museum of Vertebrate Zoology
University of Kansas, Museum of Natural History
University of Michigan, Museum of Zoology
University of New Mexico, Museum of Southwestern Biology
University of San Simon, Cochabamba, Bolivia
Yale Peabody Museum
Plus 5 scientists

28. Sources of Locality Information
Herbaria
Herbarium. Naturhistorisches Museum Wien. Vienna
Herbarium. Pomona College
Herbarium. Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew
Herbarium. University of Michigan
Herbarium. Uppsala University
Herbarium. Academy of Natural Sciences.
Herbarium. Albrecht-von-Haller-Institut für Pflanzenwissenschaften
Herbarium. California Academy of Sciences. San Francisco, California.
Herbarium. Heidelberger Institut für Pflanzenwissenschaften
Herbarium. Institut für Systematische Botanik. Universität Zürich
Herbarium. Marie Selby Botanical Gardens
Herbarium. Missoouri Botanical Garden
Herbarium. National Museum in Prague
Herbarium. Natural History Museum of Los Angeles County
Herbarium. Rancho Santa Ana Botanic Garden
Herbarium. Royal Botanic Garden. Edinburgh
Herbarium. Swedish Museum of Natural History
Herbarium. The Natural History Museum
Herbarium. United States National Arboretum
Herbarium. University of California. Los Angeles
Herbarium. University of Copenhagen
Herbarium. University of Texas at Austin
Herbarium. V. L. Komarov Botanical Institute
Herbier National de Paris.
Nationaal Herbarium Nederland
United States National Herbarium
University Herbarium. University of California. Berkeley
University of Aarhus Herbarium Jutlandicum
William and Lynda Steere Herbarium. New York Botanical Garden
Albion R. Hodgdon Herbarium. University of New Hampshire
Bailey Hortorium Herbarium, Cornell University
Botanical Museum. Lund, Sweden
Botanischer Garten und Botanisches Museum Berlin-Dahlem.
Conservatoire et Jardin botaniques de la Ville de Genève
Daubeny Herbarium. University of Oxford
Dudley Herbarium. California Academy of Sciences
Field Museum of Natural History
Fielding-Druce Herbarium. University of Oxford
Harvard University Herbaria
Herbario Amazonense. Univ. Nacional de la Amazónia Perúana
Herbario del Oriente Boliviano. Mus. Historia Natural Noel Kempff Mercado
Herbario Nacional Colombiano
Herbario Nacional de Bolivia
Herbario Nacional del Ecuador
Herbario Nacional Forestal Martín Cárdenas. Cochabamba
Herbario Nacional. Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
Herbario Selva Central. Oxapampa, Perú.
Herbario Vargas. Universidad Nacional San Antonio Abad del Cusco
Herbario. Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos. Lima
Herbario. Fundación Miguel Lillo. Tucuman, Argentina.
Herbario. Instituto de Botánica Darwinion. Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Herbario. Instituto de Botánica del Nordeste. Corrientes, Argentina.
Herbario. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Buenos Aires
Herbario. Proyecto BOLFOR. Santa Cruz, Bolivia
Herbario. Real Jardín Botánico. Madrid, Spain.
Herbario. Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina. Lima
Herbario. Universidad Nacional de Cajamarca
Herbario. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba
Herbário. Universidade de São Paulo
Herbarium of the University of Arizona
Herbarium Senckenbergianum Frankfurt
Herbarium Truxillense. Universidad Nacional de La Libertad-Trujillo