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Metodos e Ferramentas para Modelagem Preditiva de Especies 19-20 June 2002 Campinas, S.P., Brasil.

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Presentation on theme: "Metodos e Ferramentas para Modelagem Preditiva de Especies 19-20 June 2002 Campinas, S.P., Brasil."— Presentation transcript:

1 Metodos e Ferramentas para Modelagem Preditiva de Especies June 2002 Campinas, S.P., Brasil

2 Large-scale Ecology Most organismal ecology done at small spatial scales (>80% ~1 m 2 ) Most organismal ecology done at small spatial scales (>80% ~1 m 2 ) Systematics – large scale, but no ecology! Systematics – large scale, but no ecology! Critical nature of large-scale applications Critical nature of large-scale applications –Whole-geographic-range phenomena E.g., potential for invasion E.g., potential for invasion E.g., climate change effects E.g., climate change effects –Effects of biogeography, history Mars vs leaves Mars vs leaves –Emergent properties at larger scales Need for a new perspective that bridges between ecology and systematics, and takes a large-scale view of biodiversity Need for a new perspective that bridges between ecology and systematics, and takes a large-scale view of biodiversity

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4 EUROPEAN EXPEDITIONS IN THE 18TH CENTURY HumboldtMalaspina

5 NATURAL HISTORY MUSEUM, PARIS, FRANCE

6 PRE-DARWININAN SYSTEMATISTS OF THE 18TH AND 19TH CENTURIES Lafresnaye Lesson Strickland Swainson

7 DESCRIBING BIODIVERSITY AFTER DARWIN Hartlaub Gray Cassin

8 SOLDIERS AND EXPLORERS Mearns Xantus Craveri

9 AMERICAN MUSEUM OF NATURAL HISTORY, NY, USA

10 IMMIGRANT NATURALISTS Boucard Botteri

11 CATALOGUE OF BRITISH MUSEUM BIRDS Hartert Salvadori Sharpe Sclater

12 THE BIOLOGIA CENTRALI-AMERICANA Osbert Salvin F. DuCane Godman

13 NATURAL HISTORY MUSEUM, TRING, ENGLAND

14 SOCIEDAD MEXICANA DE HISTORIA NATURAL Villada Herrera Dugès

15 THE UNITED STATES BIOLOGICAL SURVEY E. W. Nelson E. A. Goldman

16 A. Wetmore H. Oberholser A. J. Van Rossem W. De Witt Miller Systematics in the 20th century

17 Wilmot W. Browns Specimens, World Museum

18 The Check-list of Mexican Birds L. Griscom H. Friedmann R. T. Moore A. Miller

19 Chester Lambs specimens, Moore Lab. of Zoology

20 Research at the National University in Mexico Allan Phillips Eduardo Caballero Miguel Alvarez del Toro Rafael Martín del Campo

21 G. Lowery C. G. Sibley R. W. Storer G. M. Sutton A. S. Leopold NewExplorations in Mexico

22 The new generation of ornithologists

23 MUSEO DE ZOOLOGÍA, UNAM, MEXICO CITY

24 BIRDS OF MEXICO IN THE WORLD MUSEUM

25 Biases

26 Knowledge of Biodiversity Knowledge of biology Frequency Species with detailed autecological studies across geography Species with point information Species with physiological data

27 Fuente: 17 bases de datos pertenecientes al SNIB Reptiles mexicanos

28 Fish University of Florida

29 Fish Tulane University

30 Fish University of Michigan

31 Fish World Museum

32 Gaps in Knowledge of Biodiversity

33 Inferring into Gaps with Predictive Modeling

34 Mario del Toro Aviles – all specimens

35 Mario del Toro Aviles – 1936 October

36 Mario del Toro Aviles – 1937 July

37 Mario del Toro Aviles – 1949 June 2-4 June 6 June 7 June 16 June June

38 Availability

39 The Species Analyst REMIB SpeciesLink (Brasil!)

40 77 Participating Institutions I Academy of Natural Sciences, Philadelphia Academy of Natural Sciences, Philadelphia Agriculture Canada Agriculture Canada American Museum of Natural History American Museum of Natural History Arizona State University Arizona State University Auburn University Museum Auburn University Museum Australian Museum Australian Museum Bell Museum, University of Minnesota Bell Museum, University of Minnesota Bernice P. Bishop Musem Bernice P. Bishop Musem Brigham Young University Brigham Young University Burke Museum, University of Washington Burke Museum, University of Washington California Academy of Sciences California Academy of Sciences California Weeds California Weeds Canadian Museum of Nature Canadian Museum of Nature Carnegie Museum of Natural History Carnegie Museum of Natural History Cornell University Museum of Vertebrates Cornell University Museum of Vertebrates Departamento de Botânica, Instituto de Biociências, USP Departamento de Botânica, Instituto de Biociências, USP Departamento de Botânica, Instituto de Biologia, Unicamp Departamento de Botânica, Instituto de Biologia, Unicamp Departamento de Entomologia, Fitopatologia e Zoologia Agrícola, ESALQ/USP Departamento de Entomologia, Fitopatologia e Zoologia Agrícola, ESALQ/USP ECOSUR ECOSUR EMAN-Frog Watch EMAN-Frog Watch Faculdade de Filosofia, Ciências e Letras de Riberão Preto (USP) Faculdade de Filosofia, Ciências e Letras de Riberão Preto (USP) Field Museum of Natural History Field Museum of Natural History Florida State Museum Florida State Museum Gulf Coast Research Laboratory Museum, University of Southern Mississippi Gulf Coast Research Laboratory Museum, University of Southern Mississippi Illinois Natural History Survey Illinois Natural History Survey

41 77 Participating Institutions II Instituto Biológico de Campinas, Centro Experimental Instituto Biológico de Campinas, Centro Experimental Instituto de Biologia, UNAM Instituto de Biologia, UNAM Instituto de Botânica Instituto de Botânica Instituto Nacional de Biodiversidad Instituto Nacional de Biodiversidad Instituto Nacional Politecnico Instituto Nacional Politecnico Los Angeles County Natural History Museum Los Angeles County Natural History Museum Louisiana State University Museum of Natural Science Louisiana State University Museum of Natural Science Michigan State University Museum Michigan State University Museum Milwaukee Public Museum Milwaukee Public Museum Museu de Zoologia, USP (MZUSP) Museu de Zoologia, USP (MZUSP) Museum National d'Histoire Naturelle, Paris Museum National d'Histoire Naturelle, Paris Museum of Comparative Zoology, Harvard University Museum of Comparative Zoology, Harvard University Museum of Southwestern Biology, University of New Mexico Museum of Southwestern Biology, University of New Mexico Museum of Vertebrate Zoology, University of California, Berkeley Museum of Vertebrate Zoology, University of California, Berkeley Nebraska State Museum Nebraska State Museum Real Jardin Botanico, Madrid Real Jardin Botanico, Madrid Redpath Museum, McGill University Redpath Museum, McGill University Royal Ontario Museum Royal Ontario Museum San Diego Natural History Museum San Diego Natural History Museum Scripps Institution of Oceanography Scripps Institution of Oceanography Slater Museum, University of Puget Sound Slater Museum, University of Puget Sound Swedish Museum of Natural History Swedish Museum of Natural History Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Texas Natural History Collections Texas Natural History Collections Texas Tech University Museum Texas Tech University Museum Tulane University Natural History Museum Tulane University Natural History Museum

42 77 Participating Institutions III U.S. Breeding Bird Survey U.S. Breeding Bird Survey U.S. National Museum of Natural History U.S. National Museum of Natural History UNAM-Facultad de Ciencias UNAM-Facultad de Ciencias UNAM-Institution de Biologia UNAM-Institution de Biologia UNAM-Instituto de Ecologia UNAM-Instituto de Ecologia UNESP, Campus de São José do Rio Preto UNESP, Campus de São José do Rio Preto Universidad Autonoma de Chapingo Universidad Autonoma de Chapingo Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana Universidad de Sonora Universidad de Sonora University of Alabama Ichthyological Collection University of Alabama Ichthyological Collection University of Alaska Museum University of Alaska Museum University of Alberta Museum University of Alberta Museum University of Arizona University of Arizona University of Colorado Museum University of Colorado Museum University of Georgia Museum University of Georgia Museum University of Kansas Natural History Museum University of Kansas Natural History Museum University of Michigan Museum of Zoology University of Michigan Museum of Zoology University of Nevada - Reno University of Nevada - Reno University of Oklahoma Museum University of Oklahoma Museum University of Texas, Arlington University of Texas, Arlington University of Texas, Austin University of Texas, Austin University of Texas, El Paso University of Texas, El Paso Utah Museum of Natural History Utah Museum of Natural History Yale Peabody Museum Yale Peabody Museum

43 TSA Use I

44 TSA Geographic Distribution of Use

45 Biodiversity Information Biases Biases –Presence-only –Distributed nature –Gaps of unknown significance –Skewed distribution of knowledge –Bias with respect to geography (ecology?) Challenges Challenges –Computerization –Georeferencing –Identification –Precision –AVAILABILITY/ACCESS (how much in country?)

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47 Factors that Limit Species Distributions History History –Limited dispersal –Speciation –Extinction Ecology Ecology –Abiotic environment –Biotic environment Interactions Interactions –Competition –Predation –Parasitism –Mutualisms

48 Digital Elevation Models

49 Climate Data

50 Climate Change over Last Century

51 Climate Change over Next Century

52 Satellite Data and LULC Data

53 Environmental Combinations - China

54 Environmental Combinations – North America


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