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Metodos e Ferramentas para Modelagem Preditiva de Especies

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Presentation on theme: "Metodos e Ferramentas para Modelagem Preditiva de Especies"— Presentation transcript:

1 Metodos e Ferramentas para Modelagem Preditiva de Especies
19-20 June 2002 Campinas, S.P., Brasil

2 Large-scale Ecology Most organismal ‘ecology’ done at small spatial scales (>80%  ~1 m2) Systematics – large scale, but no ecology! Critical nature of large-scale applications Whole-geographic-range phenomena E.g., potential for invasion E.g., climate change effects Effects of biogeography, history Mars vs leaves Emergent properties at larger scales Need for a new perspective that bridges between ecology and systematics, and takes a large-scale view of biodiversity

3

4 Humboldt Malaspina EUROPEAN EXPEDITIONS IN THE 18TH CENTURY

5 NATURAL HISTORY MUSEUM, PARIS, FRANCE

6 PRE-DARWININAN SYSTEMATISTS OF THE 18TH AND 19TH CENTURIES
Lesson Lafresnaye Swainson PRE-DARWININAN SYSTEMATISTS OF THE 18TH AND 19TH CENTURIES Strickland

7 Hartlaub Gray Cassin DESCRIBING BIODIVERSITY AFTER DARWIN

8 Mearns Xantus Craveri SOLDIERS AND EXPLORERS

9 AMERICAN MUSEUM OF NATURAL HISTORY, NY, USA

10 Boucard Botteri IMMIGRANT NATURALISTS

11 Sharpe Salvadori Hartert CATALOGUE OF BRITISH MUSEUM BIRDS Sclater

12 Osbert Salvin F. DuCane Godman THE BIOLOGIA CENTRALI-AMERICANA

13 NATURAL HISTORY MUSEUM, TRING, ENGLAND

14 Dugès Villada Herrera SOCIEDAD MEXICANA DE HISTORIA NATURAL

15 E. W. Nelson E. A. Goldman THE UNITED STATES BIOLOGICAL SURVEY

16 Systematics in the 20th century
A. J. Van Rossem A. Wetmore Systematics in the 20th century H. Oberholser W. De Witt Miller

17 Wilmot W. Brown’s Specimens, World Museum

18 The Check-list of Mexican Birds R. T. Moore A. Miller H. Friedmann
L. Griscom

19 Chester Lamb’s specimens, Moore Lab. of Zoology

20 Research at the National
Eduardo Caballero Miguel Alvarez del Toro Allan Phillips Research at the National University in Mexico Rafael Martín del Campo

21 New Explorations in Mexico G. Lowery C. G. Sibley R. W. Storer
G. M. Sutton A. S. Leopold

22 The new generation of ornithologists

23 MUSEO DE ZOOLOGÍA, UNAM, MEXICO CITY

24 BIRDS OF MEXICO IN THE “WORLD MUSEUM”

25 Biases

26 Knowledge of Biodiversity
Species with point information Species with detailed autecological studies across geography Species with physiological data Frequency Knowledge of biology

27 Fuente: 17 bases de datos pertenecientes al SNIB
Reptiles mexicanos Fuente: 17 bases de datos pertenecientes al SNIB

28 Fish University of Florida

29 Fish Tulane University

30 Fish University of Michigan

31 Fish “World Museum”

32 Gaps in Knowledge of Biodiversity

33 Inferring into Gaps with Predictive Modeling

34 Mario del Toro Aviles – all specimens

35 Mario del Toro Aviles – 1936 October

36 Mario del Toro Aviles – 1937 July

37 Mario del Toro Aviles – 1949 June

38 Availability

39 The Species Analyst http://speciesanalyst. net REMIB http://www
The Species Analyst REMIB SpeciesLink (Brasil!)

40 77 Participating Institutions I
Academy of Natural Sciences, Philadelphia Agriculture Canada American Museum of Natural History Arizona State University Auburn University Museum Australian Museum Bell Museum, University of Minnesota Bernice P. Bishop Musem Brigham Young University Burke Museum, University of Washington California Academy of Sciences California Weeds Canadian Museum of Nature Carnegie Museum of Natural History Cornell University Museum of Vertebrates Departamento de Botânica, Instituto de Biociências, USP Departamento de Botânica, Instituto de Biologia, Unicamp Departamento de Entomologia, Fitopatologia e Zoologia Agrícola, ESALQ/USP ECOSUR EMAN-Frog Watch Faculdade de Filosofia, Ciências e Letras de Riberão Preto (USP) Field Museum of Natural History Florida State Museum Gulf Coast Research Laboratory Museum, University of Southern Mississippi Illinois Natural History Survey

41 77 Participating Institutions II
Instituto Biológico de Campinas, Centro Experimental Instituto de Biologia, UNAM Instituto de Botânica Instituto Nacional de Biodiversidad Instituto Nacional Politecnico Los Angeles County Natural History Museum Louisiana State University Museum of Natural Science Michigan State University Museum Milwaukee Public Museum Museu de Zoologia, USP (MZUSP) Museum National d'Histoire Naturelle, Paris Museum of Comparative Zoology, Harvard University Museum of Southwestern Biology, University of New Mexico Museum of Vertebrate Zoology, University of California, Berkeley Nebraska State Museum Real Jardin Botanico, Madrid Redpath Museum, McGill University Royal Ontario Museum San Diego Natural History Museum Scripps Institution of Oceanography Slater Museum, University of Puget Sound Swedish Museum of Natural History Texas A&M University Texas Natural History Collections Texas Tech University Museum Tulane University Natural History Museum

42 77 Participating Institutions III
U.S. Breeding Bird Survey U.S. National Museum of Natural History UNAM-Facultad de Ciencias UNAM-Institution de Biologia UNAM-Instituto de Ecologia UNESP, Campus de São José do Rio Preto Universidad Autonoma de Chapingo Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana Universidad de Sonora University of Alabama Ichthyological Collection University of Alaska Museum University of Alberta Museum University of Arizona University of Colorado Museum University of Georgia Museum University of Kansas Natural History Museum University of Michigan Museum of Zoology University of Nevada - Reno University of Oklahoma Museum University of Texas, Arlington University of Texas, Austin University of Texas, El Paso Utah Museum of Natural History Yale Peabody Museum

43 TSA Use I

44 TSA Geographic Distribution of Use

45 Biodiversity Information
Biases Presence-only Distributed nature Gaps of unknown significance Skewed distribution of knowledge Bias with respect to geography (ecology?) Challenges Computerization Georeferencing Identification Precision AVAILABILITY/ACCESS (how much in country?)

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47 Factors that Limit Species’ Distributions
History Limited dispersal Speciation Extinction Ecology Abiotic environment Biotic environment Interactions Competition Predation Parasitism Mutualisms

48 Digital Elevation Models

49 Climate Data

50 Climate Change over Last Century

51 Climate Change over Next Century

52 Satellite Data and LULC Data

53 Environmental Combinations - China

54 Environmental Combinations – North America


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