1. THE NEW GLOBAL WORLD ORDER What The Emergence of China, India and Brazil Means for You John N. Doggett, JD, MBA, Senior Lecturer Global Management, Entrepreneurship & Sustainable Energy McCombs School of Business Senior Research Fellow, IC 2 Institute University of Texas at Austin john.doggett@mccombs.utexas.edujohn.doggett@mccombs.utexas.edu www.jndoggett.comwww.jndoggett.com November 12, 2010

2. We Are In The Eye of a S.I.P.

3. Strategic Inflection Points Are Scary A strategic inflection point is a time in the life of a business [or a country] when its fundamentals are about to change. That change can mean an opportunity to rise to new heights. But it may just as likely signal the beginning of the end. Andy Grove, Only the Paranoid Survive

4. Deep Water Horizon

5. 27,000 Abandoned Wells....

6. Who is the Enemy?

7. ITS THE ECONOMY, STUPID! Four Words Say It All

8. Deficits Forever... ?

9. The Worlds Debt Cycle

10. Greece is Just The Beginning

11. The World Is Upside Down

12. Japan Had A Lost Decade

13. The Worst Job Loss Since WW II

14. What Will We Make in the Future?

15. If One Fails To Learn From History

16. EMERGING FROM THE MIST Regaining Their Place in History

17. At the End of WW II Europe and Asia had suffered unimaginable destruction. Most of the factories of our competitors had been destroyed. For a brief period in history, American manufacturing firms were the only game in town.

18. We assumed that Third World Countries would always be dirt poor colonies. We assumed that Third World Countries would never be able to produce innovative products that could compete with our products. We Were Wrong On Both Counts. Assume is a Very Dangerous Word

19. Be Careful What You Wish For We told the world that our way of life was better than Communism or Socialism. CNN and Hollywood showed the world an irresistible vision of American Life. Then the Unthinkable happened. – On November 9, 1989, the Berlin Wall Fell – On Christmas Day, 1991, the USSR ceased to exist. We had won the Cold War. And most of the world wanted to live like US.

20. Birth of the BRICs In 2001, as the Internet Bubble was collapsing and the stock market was imploding, Goldman Sachs predicted that four countries would dominate global economic activity in the 21 st Century. Brazil Russia India China

21. The Axis of the Future

22. Is Goldman Sachs Crazy? 6,100% Annual Inflation (1994) Collapse of the Ruble (1998) Two Weeks of Foreign Reserves (1991) The Cultural Revolution (1966-1976)

23. Largest Countries By Population 1.China1,330,141,295 (slightly smaller than the US) 2.India1,173,108,018 (slightly more than 1/3 the size of the US) 3.United States 310,232,863 (6.25% of the earths land mass = 424,378,888) 4.Indonesia 242,968,342 (slightly less than 3X the size of Texas = 25 million) 5.Brazil 201,103,330 (slightly smaller than the US) 6.Pakistan 184,404,791 (slightly less than 2X size of California = 37 million) 7.Bangladesh 156,118,464 (slightly smaller than Iowa = 3 million) 8.Nigeria 152,217,341 (slightly more than twice the size of California) 9.Russia 139,390,205 (approximately 1.8 times the size of the US ) 10.Japan 126,804,205 (slightly smaller than California) 11.Mexico 112,468,855 (slightly less than three times the size of Texas) 12.Philippines 99,900,177 (slightly larger than Arizona = 6.6 million) 13.Vietnam 89,571,130 (slightly larger than New Mexico = 2 million) CIA World Factbook –November 11, 2010

24. National GDP in 2009 (purchasing power parity) CountryGDP 2009 Growth % 1.United States$ 14,140,000,000,000 - 2.6% 2.China $ 8,748,000,000,000 9.1% 3.Japan $ 4,150,000,000,000 - 5.3% 4.India $ 3,570,000,000,000 7.4% 5.Germany $ 2,810,000,000,000 - 4.9% 6.United Kingdom $ 2,128,000,000,000 - 4.9% 7.Russia $ 2,110,000,000,000 - 7.9% 8.France $ 2,097,000,000,000 - 2.5% 9.Brazil $ 2,013,000,000,000 - 0.2% 10.Italy $ 1,739,000,000,000 - 5.1% 11.Mexico $ 1,465,000,000,000 - 6.5% 12.South Korea $ 1,364,000,000,000 0.2% 13.Spain $ 1,362,000,000,000 - 3.6% 14.Canada $ 1,279,000,000,000 - 2.5% CIA World Factbook – November 11, 2010

25. Elephants Emerging from the Mist Total World Population = 6,768,181,146 BRIC Population = 2,843,742,848 (42%) Total World Land Area = 174,814,000 sq. km. (- oceans) BRIC Land Area = 38,471,715(22%) Total World Gross Domestic Product = $58.15 Trillion (Official Exchange Rate) Total World Gross Domestic Product = $69.98 Trillion (Purchasing Power Parity) (p.p.p.) BRIC Gross Domestic Product (p.p.p.) = $ 16.44 Trillion (23.5%) Source: CIA World Factbook – November 11, 2010