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© OECD/IEA 2013 World Energy Outlook 2013 Timur Gül Directorate of Global Energy Economics, IEA Geneva, 21 November
© OECD/IEA 2013 The world energy scene today Some long-held tenets of the energy sector are being rewritten Countries are switching roles: importers are becoming exporters… … and exporters are among the major sources of growing demand New supply options reshape ideas about distribution of resources But long-term solutions to global challenges remain scarce Renewed focus on energy efficiency, but CO 2 emissions continue to rise Fossil-fuel subsidies increased to $544 billion in billion people lack electricity, 2.6 billion lack clean cooking facilities Energy prices add to the pressure on policymakers Sustained period of high oil prices without parallel in market history Large, persistent regional price differences for gas & electricity
© OECD/IEA 2013 The engine of energy demand growth moves to South Asia Primary energy demand, 2035 (Mtoe) China is the main driver of increasing energy demand in the current decade, but India takes over in the 2020s as the principal source of growth 4% 65% 10% 8% 5% OECD Non-OECD Asia Middle East Africa Latin America Eurasia Share of global growth Brazil India Southeast Asia China Africa United States 440 Japan Europe Eurasia Middle East
© OECD/IEA 2013 A mix that is slow to change Growth in total primary energy demand Today's share of fossil fuels in the global mix, at 82%, is the same as it was 25 years ago; the strong rise of renewables only reduces this to around 75% in Nuclear Oil Renewables Coal Gas Mtoe the strong rise of renewables only reduces this to around 75% in 2035
© OECD/IEA 2013 Non-OECD OECD Emissions off track in the run-up to the 2015 climate summit in France Cumulative energy-related CO 2 emissions Non-OECD countries account for a rising share of emissions, although 2035 per capita levels are only half of OECD Gt OECD Non-OECD Total emissions % 49%
© OECD/IEA 2013 Two chapters to the oil production story Contributions to global oil production growth The United States (light tight oil) & Brazil (deepwater) step up until the mid-2020s, Middle East mb/d Brazil Rest of the world Oil sands, extra-heavy oil, coal/gas-to-liquids, & other Light tight oil Conventional: Unconventional: but the Middle East is critical to the longer-term oil outlook
© OECD/IEA OilGasCoal A reorientation of Eurasian energy trade Fossil fuel net import demand (Mtoe) Demand is pulling Eurasias energy exports eastwards, but major investments in the upstream and in infrastructure are required to break into expanding Asian markets OilGasCoal Europe Asia
© OECD/IEA 2013 LNG from the United States can shake up gas markets Indicative economics of LNG export from the US Gulf Coast (at current prices) New LNG supplies accelerate movement towards a more interconnected global market, but high costs of transport between regions mean no single global gas price Average import price Liquefaction, shipping & regasification United States price To Asia $/MBtu To Europe $/MBtu but high costs of transport between regions mean no single global gas price
© OECD/IEA ×3× 4×4× 5×5× 2003 Regional differences in natural gas prices narrow from todays very high levels but remain large through to 2035; electricity price differentials also persist electricity price differentials also persist Reduction from 2013 Who has the energy to compete? Ratio of industrial energy prices relative to the United States United States 2×2× JapanEuropean Union China ElectricityNatural gas 2003 JapanEuropean Union China
© OECD/IEA 2013 Energy-intensive industries need to count their costs Share of energy in total production costs for selected industries Energy-intensive sectors worldwide account for around one-fifth of industrial value added, one-quarter of industrial employment and 70% of industrial energy use. 10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90% Glass Pulp & paper Iron & steel Cement Aluminium Fertilisers Petrochemicals
© OECD/IEA 2013 An energy boost to the economy? Share of global export market for energy-intensive goods The US, together with key emerging economies, increases its export market share for energy-intensive goods, while the EU and Japan see a sharp decline Today 36%10%7% 3%2% European Union United States China India Middle East Japan -3% -10% +3% +2% +1% while the EU and Japan see a sharp decline
© OECD/IEA 2013 Orientation for a fast-changing energy world China, then India, drive the growing dominance of Asia in global energy demand & trade, with implications for Eurasian exports Technology is opening up new oil resources, but the Middle East remains central to the longer-term outlook Regional price gaps & concerns over competitiveness are here to stay, but there are ways to react – with efficiency first in line The transition to a more efficient, low-carbon energy sector is more difficult in tough economic times, but no less urgent
© OECD/IEA 2011 World Energy Outlook 2011 Carnegie Endowment Washington DC, 28 November 2011.
© OECD/IEA 2012 World Energy Outlook 2012 Washington DC, 27 November 2012.
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